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1 hour ago, BelfastVI said:

Something that has to be taken into consideration is the differance in the alternative which is renting. I believe it is this differance that drives people towards buying rather than renting and vice versa. Rents have been rising in NI. I believe this will continue as the BTL bandwagan are exiting due to pressure from their bank, rising prices allowing them out, and the change to the Tax allowance on interest.

There are no new private BTL entrainties. There are some inst' investors in the Build to Rent schemes, but these are aimed at high rent locations.

Therefore the number of  properties for rent is and will continue to decrease and the number of people looking to rent has and will continue to increase.

I think also the quality of accommodation available to rent is often very poor as well. Add to that the fact that many/most people in this country loathe the idea of renting - they'd sooner take out a 40 year mortgage even if they'll never live to pay it off, to have the security of tenure than to rent somewhere. Which I can understand to an extent.

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1 hour ago, BelfastVI said:

Something that has to be taken into consideration is the differance in the alternative which is renting. I believe it is this differance that drives people towards buying rather than renting and vice versa. Rents have been rising in NI. I believe this will continue as the BTL bandwagan are exiting due to pressure from their bank, rising prices allowing them out, and the change to the Tax allowance on interest.

There are no new private BTL entrainties. There are some inst' investors in the Build to Rent schemes, but these are aimed at high rent locations.

Therefore the number of  properties for rent is and will continue to decrease and the number of people looking to rent has and will continue to increase.

I agree BVI. I'm absolutely disgusted with all those previous rental properties just evaporating when they stop being rental stock. 

It's zero sum. One less rental is one more owner occupier who was previously a renter. Net effect is zero. 

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On 14/11/2019 at 23:20, stingray192 said:

everyone eats out every week, has several weekends away a year, several holidays a year, brand new cars, always on finance, changes their phones constantly, buys lunches every day and has at least a few takeaways each week, they buy designer clothes and have nails etc done every few weeks

No.

Not everyone does this.

Some do, not all.

Houses are still very expensive regardless of how often people change their smartphone.

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On 13/11/2019 at 09:39, BelfastVI said:

Q3 2018 NIRPPI REPORT

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Quarter Change +2.3%

Annual Change +4%

Number of Sales 6,002

As an EA, do you think that if someone is a cash buyer that's a useful thing in today's market for getting any meaningful discount?

Are most 'cash only' houses that come on the market ones that no bugger would want anyway?

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On 16/11/2019 at 09:34, The_Equalizer said:

Average house price in Clapham in 2000 was almost £258k or £426K in real terms:

Average House Prices in Clapham - foxtons.co.uk

That last time it was cheap was the 1960s (my parents lived there for a while.) The last time such areas of London were affordable was the early 1980s during the recession. 

I doubt that even the smartest bits of Northern Ireland have an average house price of £426K, but happy to be corrected.

Plenty of places in NI with and average price of 426k. It will be highly localised though. Parts of BT9. Holywood etc. 

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22 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I agree BVI. I'm absolutely disgusted with all those previous rental properties just evaporating when they stop being rental stock. 

It's zero sum. One less rental is one more owner occupier who was previously a renter. Net effect is zero. 

You are right of course. they dont evaporate and should have explained further. they are been purchased by people to live in rather than to rent out. Which is one way is a good thing but on the other hand, and the point I was making - it is depleting the rental stock.

The net effect is not zero as there are aprox 20,000 people come of age every year. some stay at home, some rent and some buy. If the rental stock is decreasing every year then we will have a problem.

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22 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

As an EA, do you think that if someone is a cash buyer that's a useful thing in today's market for getting any meaningful discount?

Are most 'cash only' houses that come on the market ones that no bugger would want anyway?

As stated below I am a builder.

The answer is no. There is good supply of mortgage availability and has been for the last 5 years. It is only when mortgages lenders pull back their Loan to Value ratios that Cash becomes King.

I imagine if someone is saying 'cash buyer only' it means he dosnt want a suveyor or solicitor looking too closely at it. draw your own conclusions.

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1 hour ago, BelfastVI said:

You are right of course. they dont evaporate and should have explained further. they are been purchased by people to live in rather than to rent out. Which is one way is a good thing but on the other hand, and the point I was making - it is depleting the rental stock.

The net effect is not zero as there are aprox 20,000 people come of age every year. some stay at home, some rent and some buy. If the rental stock is decreasing every year then we will have a problem.

20000 come of age and 16000 die. We also have an aging population where the proportion of the population over 65 has increased and the number of children decreased. 

You should be looking to build folds. 

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5 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I'll have a look and see if I can find the borough income but I'd be surprised if it was much more than 5 times average earnings in the early 00s

I was quite impressed, but the data does seem available from the ONS:

Nomis - Official Labour Market Statistics - ONS

From what I can see the full-time median annual salary for Lambeth was £24,264 in 2000 which is £40,119 in real terms. The highest was (unsurprisingly) for the City of London at £39,104 or £64,657 in today's money. So even if you had a reasonable job in The City and lived in Clapham you were looking at 6.5 times salary in 2000. If you worked locally it was 10.6 times. 

Anyway, back to NI...

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8 hours ago, The_Equalizer said:

I was quite impressed, but the data does seem available from the ONS:

Nomis - Official Labour Market Statistics - ONS

From what I can see the full-time median annual salary for Lambeth was £24,264 in 2000 which is £40,119 in real terms. The highest was (unsurprisingly) for the City of London at £39,104 or £64,657 in today's money. So even if you had a reasonable job in The City and lived in Clapham you were looking at 6.5 times salary in 2000. If you worked locally it was 10.6 times. 

Anyway, back to NI...

Absolutely insane. 

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I was doing some number crunching last night looking for patterns between London and everywhere else in the UK. It seems to be that London really is overvalued even with these low interest rates. While googling a year or so ago I did find a very good report by Ulster Bank about the relationship between NI house market crash, the Dublin crash and the crash in London. Cannot find it at all these days.

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On 19/11/2019 at 19:17, 2buyornot2buy said:

20000 come of age and 16000 die. We also have an aging population where the proportion of the population over 65 has increased and the number of children decreased. 

You should be looking to build folds. 

It is true we have an aging population. the impact of this is people are holding onto housing stock longer before it recycles. 

Aqnd you retirement villages, rather than retirement homes are the answer which would allow the 'empty' nesters to release their family houses back into the market place.

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16 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

I was doing some number crunching last night looking for patterns between London and everywhere else in the UK. It seems to be that London really is overvalued even with these low interest rates. While googling a year or so ago I did find a very good report by Ulster Bank about the relationship between NI house market crash, the Dublin crash and the crash in London. Cannot find it at all these days.

London sells alot of extreemly expensive apartments to mainly overseas people who, for various reasons want to have Sterling assets. this completely distorts the prices there and the price of these multi million pound apartments has no relation to average income in London.

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  • 418 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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