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17 hours ago, BelfastVI said:

Its not a multiple of 'household income' but a multiple of Median individual income. 

Also worth pointing out the percentiles for earnings here. I constantly hear the arguments about average houses not being not being starter homes etc. The "I lived in a 2 bed shack on Sandy Row" for my first house stuff. 

10th percentile earnings in NI are 16k. 

90th percentile earnings in NI are 50k. 

The average house costs nearly 2.8 times 90th percentile earnings. 

This is also a crazy number. 

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4 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Also worth pointing out the percentiles for earnings here. I constantly hear the arguments about average houses not being not being starter homes etc. The "I lived in a 2 bed shack on Sandy Row" for my first house stuff. 

10th percentile earnings in NI are 16k. 

90th percentile earnings in NI are 50k. 

The average house costs nearly 2.8 times 90th percentile earnings. 

This is also a crazy number. 

There are other factors at play. I would be interested in how many households receive housing benefit (or whatever it is known as these days.) This gives the market a floor.

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41 minutes ago, The_Equalizer said:

There are other factors at play. I would be interested in how many households receive housing benefit (or whatever it is known as these days.) This gives the market a floor.

It definitely gives rents a floor and by extension BTL prices. The removal of basic relief for BTL will undoubtedly have a affect here too. Though not as much as it should. I firmly believe most don't declare. Nice earner for HMRC when they push the button. 

But effectively someone earning more than 90% of the population needs to borrow nearly 3 times gross income to buy an average house. 

 

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1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I firmly believe most don't declare. Nice earner for HMRC when they push the button.

Although rarely explicitly stated, of all the people I know that have other houses not one declares for tax purposes. With it all being digitised you would have thought finding people owning multiple houses and comparing it to their tax declarations would be relatively straightforward.

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1 hour ago, The_Equalizer said:

Although rarely explicitly stated, of all the people I know that have other houses not one declares for tax purposes. With it all being digitised you would have thought finding people owning multiple houses and comparing it to their tax declarations would be relatively straightforward.

I know several also. Not one declares. Some of these are in professions where they really should know better. 

It hasn't been "worth while" for HMRC until section 24. That changes. Also the fact HMRC can go back 20 years and add interest and penalties probably has a effect. Why collect a few grand now when you can collect 10 or 20 in a few years. 

They have the connect computer system. They could do it now if they really wanted. 

 

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2 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

They have the connect computer system. They could do it now if they really wanted.

Perhaps the government / senior civil servants don't want to do this because they and their friends are just the types of folk who own multiple houses and perhaps haven't declared everything.

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6 hours ago, The_Equalizer said:

There are other factors at play. I would be interested in how many households receive housing benefit (or whatever it is known as these days.) This gives the market a floor.

You might be surprised at what percentage of mortgages are being paid in part by Tax Credits.

Talking to younger folk it also just seems accepted that 30 - 35 year mortgages are 'the norm', which horrifies me.

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On 13/11/2019 at 12:58, 2buyornot2buy said:

Definitely agree with that. If you have the time and DIY skills you can add £££. I see it in my area. Add some grey paint and some pinterest styling and people are prepared to pay thousands more. Sometimes 10s of thousands.

The grey-all-over thing makes me laugh, because it's not a color scheme that I ever liked, yet as you say people seem to go nuts for it.

More fool me for not spending the last 5 years buying houses, painting them grey, and selling them on...

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5 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

But effectively someone earning more than 90% of the population needs to borrow nearly 3 times gross income to buy an average house.

Well I know someone on 40K who is 30 and single, and by the time they pay their rent, bills, car ect...they don't have much left to save for a deposit.

Maybe they'd be sorted at 50K but as you say, 50K shouldn't be the earning requirements for a single person to be able to afford to buy a house (without BOMAD help).

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11 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

The average house costs nearly 2.8 times 90th percentile earnings. 

This is also a crazy number. 

Whilst I agree this is crazy, perhaps the 'new normal' is that a house requires two incomes - I'd be interested to see what percentage of house sales these days are to single people vs couples.

If you are a single person on a low income you are basically screwed now. House-share for life.

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4 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Whilst I agree this is crazy, perhaps the 'new normal' is that a house requires two incomes - I'd be interested to see what percentage of house sales these days are to single people vs couples.

If you are a single person on a low income you are basically screwed now. House-share for life.

The biggest hurdle for anyone buying a house is disposable income, I’ve said it before, when I bought my first home, I was paying about 8-10% interest circ 30 years ago, I ate out occasionally, had no mobile phone, owned my own oldish car, took a packed lunch to work, bought cheap clothes etc, still had drunken nights out Etc, but lived within my means and my only debt was my mortgage.

Mortgage rates are now around 3% but the difference is, everyone eats out every week, has several weekends away a year, several holidays a year, brand new cars, always on finance, changes their phones constantly, buys lunches every day and has at least a few takeaways each week, they buy designer clothes and have nails etc done every few weeks, I have a niece who lives at home but drives a very expensive Audi, has her makeup professionally done for every night out, drinks champagne like it’s water, makes sure the same outfit never appears on Instagram twice and complains about having no money, Saturday nights out can cost her £300-£500 at a time, her friends are all the same, if you met them you’d swear they were millionaires yet none of them could afford an ex council house 

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7 hours ago, stingray192 said:

The biggest hurdle for anyone buying a house is disposable income, I’ve said it before, when I bought my first home, I was paying about 8-10% interest circ 30 years ago, I ate out occasionally, had no mobile phone, owned my own oldish car, took a packed lunch to work, bought cheap clothes etc, still had drunken nights out Etc, but lived within my means and my only debt was my mortgage.

Mortgage rates are now around 3% but the difference is, everyone eats out every week, has several weekends away a year, several holidays a year, brand new cars, always on finance, changes their phones constantly, buys lunches every day and has at least a few takeaways each week, they buy designer clothes and have nails etc done every few weeks, I have a niece who lives at home but drives a very expensive Audi, has her makeup professionally done for every night out, drinks champagne like it’s water, makes sure the same outfit never appears on Instagram twice and complains about having no money, Saturday nights out can cost her £300-£500 at a time, her friends are all the same, if you met them you’d swear they were millionaires yet none of them could afford an ex council house 

Paying 8-10% getting a pay rise greater than 8-10% and inflating the debt away. Electrical items were expensive, now they are cheap. Final salary pensions were widely available. That house cost probably 3 times single earnings. No student debt if you wanted to go to uni. Jobs were for life. No zero hours contracts. Probably had overtime too. No childcare at 900 a month because the partner didn't need to work. 

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11 hours ago, stingray192 said:

The biggest hurdle for anyone buying a house is disposable income, I’ve said it before, when I bought my first home, I was paying about 8-10% interest circ 30 years ago, I ate out occasionally, had no mobile phone, owned my own oldish car, took a packed lunch to work, bought cheap clothes etc, still had drunken nights out Etc, but lived within my means and my only debt was my mortgage.

Mortgage rates are now around 3% but the difference is, everyone eats out every week, has several weekends away a year, several holidays a year, brand new cars, always on finance, changes their phones constantly, buys lunches every day and has at least a few takeaways each week, they buy designer clothes and have nails etc done every few weeks, I have a niece who lives at home but drives a very expensive Audi, has her makeup professionally done for every night out, drinks champagne like it’s water, makes sure the same outfit never appears on Instagram twice and complains about having no money, Saturday nights out can cost her £300-£500 at a time, her friends are all the same, if you met them you’d swear they were millionaires yet none of them could afford an ex council house 

 

48 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

That's my problem too. This isn't a debate that the intergeneration wealth divide exists and isn't just a function of age. The youth today are poorer than boomers were at the same age and are expected to be poorer at boomer age. Every reputable source and anyone capable of understanding the figures acknowledges this The first step is getting boomers to acknowledge it too, which so many refuse to do. Next, step, what should be done?

This post sums it up well for me. Thanks dugsbody. 

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If more of peoples disposable income is being consumed by paying of credit for new cars, holidays and 'lifestyle' then the shit is really gonna hit the fan when the interest rates go up and the resulting crash will be correspondingly deeper and more severe.

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12 hours ago, stingray192 said:

The biggest hurdle for anyone buying a house is disposable income, I’ve said it before, when I bought my first home, I was paying about 8-10% interest circ 30 years ago, I ate out occasionally, had no mobile phone, owned my own oldish car, took a packed lunch to work, bought cheap clothes etc, still had drunken nights out Etc, but lived within my means and my only debt was my mortgage.

Mortgage rates are now around 3% but the difference is, everyone eats out every week, has several weekends away a year, several holidays a year, brand new cars, always on finance, changes their phones constantly, buys lunches every day and has at least a few takeaways each week, they buy designer clothes and have nails etc done every few weeks, I have a niece who lives at home but drives a very expensive Audi, has her makeup professionally done for every night out, drinks champagne like it’s water, makes sure the same outfit never appears on Instagram twice and complains about having no money, Saturday nights out can cost her £300-£500 at a time, her friends are all the same, if you met them you’d swear they were millionaires yet none of them could afford an ex council house 

What a load of tosh. Take a look at any decent family house in Clapham (for example) in London. Many of these houses will be owned by people who lived on a single income, were bought somewhere in those peoples early 30s (age), working a job paying probably just over median London income.

I now earn top 5% (probably more, haven't bothered to check) London income, and I will never own one of those houses, no matter how much I cut back my monthly spending. Thus I am forced to live in a shitter, smaller house, further from work and spend my life on awful trains rather than seeing my kids.

Stop pretending the problem doesn't exist. 

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4 hours ago, dugsbody said:

What a load of tosh. Take a look at any decent family house in Clapham (for example) in London. Many of these houses will be owned by people who lived on a single income, were bought somewhere in those peoples early 30s (age), working a job paying probably just over median London income.

I now earn top 5% (probably more, haven't bothered to check) London income, and I will never own one of those houses, no matter how much I cut back my monthly spending. Thus I am forced to live in a shitter, smaller house, further from work and spend my life on awful trains rather than seeing my kids.

Stop pretending the problem doesn't exist. 

Here is your other problem for London:

London's Population Over Time - Trust for London Website

Its population has gone from 6.3 million in 1991 to over 9 million. The last time Clapham was affordable was probably in the early 1980s. The last time houses were affordable in London suburbs was about 1996.

In comparision, there are houses that are affordable over in NI.

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8 hours ago, dugsbody said:

What a load of tosh. Take a look at any decent family house in Clapham (for example) in London. Many of these houses will be owned by people who lived on a single income, were bought somewhere in those peoples early 30s (age), working a job paying probably just over median London income.

I now earn top 5% (probably more, haven't bothered to check) London income, and I will never own one of those houses, no matter how much I cut back my monthly spending. Thus I am forced to live in a shitter, smaller house, further from work and spend my life on awful trains rather than seeing my kids.

Stop pretending the problem doesn't exist. 

We are talking about Northern Ireland , where people spend about 15-30 minutes commuting and have a decent life, disposable income, live in reasonable sized house and spend time with family and friends, not living in over crowded hovels and having zero life outside of work and travel 

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35 minutes ago, stingray192 said:

We are talking about Northern Ireland , where people spend about 15-30 minutes commuting and have a decent life, disposable income, live in reasonable sized house and spend time with family and friends, not living in over crowded hovels and having zero life outside of work and travel 

Although those who work over there pay the tax so we can have the decent life style. NI is a net recipient from the UK exchequer to the tune of just over £5k/year for each and every man, woman and child.  

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15 hours ago, The_Equalizer said:

Here is your other problem for London:

London's Population Over Time - Trust for London Website

Its population has gone from 6.3 million in 1991 to over 9 million. The last time Clapham was affordable was probably in the early 1980s. The last time houses were affordable in London suburbs was about 1996.

In comparision, there are houses that are affordable over in NI.

In fairness clapham was as affordable in the early 00's as NI is now. 

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10 hours ago, stingray192 said:

We are talking about Northern Ireland , where people spend about 15-30 minutes commuting and have a decent life, disposable income, live in reasonable sized house and spend time with family and friends, not living in over crowded hovels and having zero life outside of work and travel 

15mins commuting? You obviously haven't had to travel through the town up the Malone Rd at 5. Belfast is ridiculous during rush hour. Its 30 mins minimum to get through the town now. Friday and you can double that trying to get out of town. 

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17 hours ago, The_Equalizer said:

Here is your other problem for London:

London's Population Over Time - Trust for London Website

Its population has gone from 6.3 million in 1991 to over 9 million. The last time Clapham was affordable was probably in the early 1980s. The last time houses were affordable in London suburbs was about 1996.

In comparision, there are houses that are affordable over in NI.

Apologies, did not realise this thread was about NI.

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1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

In fairness clapham was as affordable in the early 00's as NI is now. 

Average house price in Clapham in 2000 was almost £258k or £426K in real terms:

Average House Prices in Clapham - foxtons.co.uk

That last time it was cheap was the 1960s (my parents lived there for a while.) The last time such areas of London were affordable was the early 1980s during the recession. 

I doubt that even the smartest bits of Northern Ireland have an average house price of £426K, but happy to be corrected.

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On 14/11/2019 at 18:22, JoeDavola said:

Whilst I agree this is crazy, perhaps the 'new normal' is that a house requires two incomes - I'd be interested to see what percentage of house sales these days are to single people vs couples.

 

Yes this is increasingly the case. I would say 90% of the houses we sell are to couples.

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Something that has to be taken into consideration is the differance in the alternative which is renting. I believe it is this differance that drives people towards buying rather than renting and vice versa. Rents have been rising in NI. I believe this will continue as the BTL bandwagan are exiting due to pressure from their bank, rising prices allowing them out, and the change to the Tax allowance on interest.

There are no new private BTL entrainties. There are some inst' investors in the Build to Rent schemes, but these are aimed at high rent locations.

Therefore the number of  properties for rent is and will continue to decrease and the number of people looking to rent has and will continue to increase.

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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