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The Masked Tulip

House Prices Are Set To Rise

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The ending is good though...

However, some economists warn that house prices could continue to fall. Ed Stansfield at Capital Economics, a consultancy, said: “The improved optimism may yet prove unfounded. We will need further evidence before we call the bottom of the market.”

Capital Economics thinks the improved CML lending figures may actually signal further price falls rather than rises.

Stansfield said: “Rather than signalling a revival in the housing market, it seems to us more likely that the sharp rise in mortgage approvals is the result of the stalemate between buyers and sellers beginning to unwind. This would be consistent with reports of falling asking prices and sellers increasingly resigning themselves to accepting offers below asking price. If this is correct, then the rise in mortgage approvals, rather than heralding higher house-price inflation, could be signalling the opposite.”

Capital Economics predicts that by the end of 2007, the average house price will be 20% lower than at the end of 2004.

:D

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The ending is good though...

:D

Interesting quote, Spirit. It' something I have often wondered about. In the stock market you could argue that an increase in volume and a price fall is bearish. Just very hard to get useful data in the housing market...

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Guest pioneer31

Wait 7 days and the rag will be running a story telling us how its all going to collapse again

This to-ing and fro-ing of opinion is beginning to bore me.

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The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), which has been reporting falling house prices since the middle of last year, believes that property values will begin to rise again

So they BELIEVE that they will rise? But they haven't ACTUALLY risen?

While surveyors reported further falls in September, the rate of decline was the lowest for 14 months.

So house prices are still FALLING?

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I am quite concerned about the Times.

They should be a bastion of journalistic integrity.

David Smith writes an article about the correlation between house prices and savings ratios, ie when people save, prices go down, as is happening now.

But then he takes a complete leap of logic and concludes that it won't apply this time.

Then this article, which basically quotes an entire range of estate agents, saying the market is about to pick up.

Wow, incredible.

And hammering home the "high house prices=good" rubbish.

How about quoting people who have a track record of historically being correct?

How about quoting some of the fund managers who called the dot-com crash, and are now calling the housing crash?

Nope, we get estate agents.

The quality of this paper is in serious question.

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I am quite concerned about the Times.

They should be a bastion of journalistic integrity.

David Smith writes an article about the correlation between house prices and savings ratios, ie when people save, prices go down, as is happening now.

But then he takes a complete leap of logic and concludes that it won't apply this time.

Then this article, which basically quotes an entire range of estate agents, saying the market is about to pick up.

Wow, incredible.

And hammering home the "high house prices=good" rubbish.

How about quoting people who have a track record of historically being correct?

How about quoting some of the fund managers who called the dot-com crash, and are now calling the housing crash?

Nope, we get estate agents.

The quality of this paper is in serious question.

Also in the Times - another journalist has written that the Winter of 2005/6 is going to be comparable with the Winter of 1962/3 with the whole of the UK FROZEN from December to March. Is this journalistic bull(coz I don't buy papers during the week)?

If this happens we all know what chaos that will bring!

Anyone else know of website back-up evidence of this Wintry 3month armageddon for Estate Agents?

Edited by erranta

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
House Prices Are Set To Rise

Not if this is correct.

Thanks to IPOD who posted this link in the about HPC forum

Who Can Afford Them

"More and more people - particularly from middle-income households - have serious debt problems," says Sue Edwards of Citizens' Advice Bureaux.

"They've borrowed to maintain lifestyles, and the 'have-it-all' culture means attitudes to credit have changed. But in recent months we've received huge numbers of debt-related calls."

Consumer bankruptcies have hit record levels. New official figures show individual insolvencies up 37 per cent on 2004, and twice as common as when Labour took office.

Earlier this month, in his most pessimistic speech to date, the Bank of England governor, Mervyn King, said: "Some of the influences that have in the past boosted consumer spending may be going into reverse." He also admitted to "concerns about the increase in personal debt, particularly unsecured debt... which may cause difficulties in the months and years ahead".

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Some years ago, Business Week magazine published an article, "The DEATH of Equities"

right on the bottom of the Bear market.

death-equities.gif

Today's Sunday Times article, "House Prices are Set to Rise" may be iconic,

an enduring symbol of how Mainstream media gets it wrong on the EVE of the Property Crash.

If we are into 1%plus per month slides within 2-3 months, this is worth recalling:

a historic moment of media embarrasment

Can someone do a scanned copy of the Times Headline, i want to save it.

1% plus month slides within 2-3 months? A little premature when the country has not even gone negative and may not until this time next year.

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I would use what seems like a good correlation between transactions rates and %HPI to get a simple indicator – obviously not as timely as the building index and also subject to seasonal variation, but then the housing market moves quite slowly and some sort of averaging is needed to smooth out short-period volatility. It’s also very easy to interpret … :)

eukjh2.jpg

Source: CML online data and LR tables.

Edited by spline

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death-equities.gif

I like that graph - it would be great to see a similar one with newspaper headlines about the housing market and with arrows pointing at the corresponding parts of the Nationwide index.

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This may have been posted before, but it is interesting that David Smith of the Times' book, "Free Lunch" - a guide to economics which he plugs in his column and website from time to time - has as it's first two "recommenders" one G Brown and the BBC business editor. I looked it up on Amazon and nearly choked.

"Once again, David Smith has demonstrated his talent for opening up the world of economics and finance to a general audience" - Gordon Brown, Chancellor of the Exchequer.

"David Smith skilfully cuts through the mind-numbing waffle that surround much of modern Economics, delivering a highly accessible guide to a subject that many claim to understand but very few do" - Jeff Randall, BBC Business Editor

Can't blame him for using these to sell the book but nice to know he is close to GB and can persude GB to give up the time to read a primer on economics.

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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