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Talk About Burrying The Bad News

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Read this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4366376.stm

The truth behind the Halifax figures at last. Basically the crash has started in the South (as we all know), and just as it did in the last crash, but National figures are underpinned by the North and Wales being a bit slow on the uptake, and presumably having higher volumes. Seeing as those areas are going to be worst hit by the failing economy, once they go negative then the Halifax National figures will all go negative.

Notice how this was released on a Saturday, and even then the headline says gap is closing, not that prices are falling in the South. Won't be long now, early next year YOY for all the indices will be -ve, I think Naionwide, rightmove and hometrack will all go below 0 before then, possibly November.

Does anyone know if the Halifax have a greater concentration of business up North in terms of mortgages?

I love this quote:

Halifax chief economist Martin Ellis said: "These falls need to be viewed in the context of the substantial price rises recorded in these parts of the country during the last few years." ....yeah, they're crashing you twit.

Edited by large

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quality....

Just another three years to go back to normal..##and to the guy who went on about us spending too much on shoes instead of on property in a thread a week or so ago..

I can't remeber who you are mate.

But I have just bought two pairs of Oliver Sweeny shoes..

lovely.. over £400 on shoes..

see I am rubbish with money.... but not dumb enough to buy a house at todays prices..

now I am in a situation of not owning a house.. but owning some fabulous shoes.

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You can always live in the shoes.

I knew an old lady who lived in a shoe, she had so many kids she didn't know what to do.

So she bought a penthouse flat in Oldham for £250,000

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You know, if I wanted to bury bad news, I think that I might just not send out a press release about it. i think you can safely assume that if they are sending it out in a press release, they want it to get news coverage.

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Ah yes

But it would get a tad tricky if the lender obtained a possession order for the shoes,especially if they were in negative equity.

Let's do another line David,your credit card or mine.

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Guest tenant super

Large.

Even more sinful than burying bad news, they are actually burying some of the best news I have heard this year!!!

TS (Surrey) :P

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Halifax chief economist Martin Ellis said: "These falls need to be viewed in the context of the substantial price rises recorded in these parts of the country during the last few years." ....yeah, they're crashing you twit.

The fact that prices have fallen a little bit in a few places after having risen a lot hardly constitutes a crash, let alone a "Great House Price Crash". I see once again that everyone supports the figures when they show falls, but apparently these same figures can't be believed when they show rises...

As usual, HPC people are saying "in a few months (some arbitrary amount of time) it will all be clear and everyone will know that prices are crashing". Hmmm...I remember reading something like that over a year ago.

I am also eagerly awaiting Bubb's 1 percent monthly falls by year end, and Charlie's May 2006 5.25 percent base rate. Decided to put your previous prediction back a year Charlie? :)

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To "Bulls Advocate"

Perhaps you are winding us all up or are snorting with Mr Cameron.

Stock Markets worldwide are plunging and property will not be left out of the crash.

Have a nice week-end mate!

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I've always maintained when the year-on-year figures go negative they'll simply start hammering home how much property has risen over 5 years or 10 years to disguise the drops.......

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As usual, HPC people are saying "in a few months (some arbitrary amount of time) it will all be clear and everyone will know that prices are crashing". Hmmm...I remember reading something like that over a year ago.

Yeah, cus if it was gonna crash it would only take a day or two, right?

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quality....

Just another three years to go back to normal..##and to the guy who went on about us spending too much on shoes instead of on property in a thread a week or so ago..

I can't remeber who you are mate.

But I have just bought two pairs of Oliver Sweeny shoes..

lovely.. over £400 on shoes..

see I am rubbish with money.... but not dumb enough to buy a house at todays prices..

now I am in a situation of not owning a house.. but owning some fabulous shoes.

Those shoes would have cost you 200 squid only 5 years ago. :P

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Very, very interesting. I work for HSBC, and on a visit to our private banking headquarters (in St James) a couple of years ago I attended a presentation by one of HSBC's top economists. Rather embarasingly, I can't remember his name (Charlie someone). Apparently he can regularly be seen given market commentries on Bloomberg and the like. At the time (of booming house prices and, retrospectively, the peak in prices) I asked him about the possibility of a crash. After the guffaws and snide comments from my colleagues had died down, he delved into his laptop and produced a graph comparing the 'northern' and 'southern' markets. At that stage (summer 2004) the trend showed these two lines approaching each other.

His next comment was key - he showed that the last crash happened when these two lines met, and that he expected the same to happen again. He would in no way, however, be pressed on when this might happen.

I have never forgotten that graph, but have never managed to find / produce it for this forum.

Edited by Freelance Mycophagist

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I have never forgotten that graph, but have never managed to find / produce it for this forum.

Was it a dream? :P

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quality....

Just another three years to go back to normal..##and to the guy who went on about us spending too much on shoes instead of on property in a thread a week or so ago..

I can't remeber who you are mate.

But I have just bought two pairs of Oliver Sweeny shoes..

lovely.. over £400 on shoes..

see I am rubbish with money.... but not dumb enough to buy a house at todays prices..

now I am in a situation of not owning a house.. but owning some fabulous shoes.

jesus christ!

why the hell do you give a sh!t about a few k of house price changes if you can afford £400 shoes :)

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As usual, HPC people are saying "in a few months (some arbitrary amount of time) it will all be clear and everyone will know that prices are crashing". Hmmm...I remember reading something like that over a year ago.

Your pretty cranky for someone whose winning here. Anyway, it doesn't really matter about the speculation, because I still can't afford a house at current prices. So I may as well indulge in a little optimism rather than acceed to your tresis which after all is a very pesimistic scenario for me that if taken seriously would involve quiting my day job (because whats the point), and sleeping with the birds in trafalgar square!

EDIT

Actually that doesn't sound so bad... maybe not trafalgar square... and maybe not in winter, but... hmmm

Edited by Elizabeth

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jesus christ!

why the hell do you give a sh!t about a few k of house price changes if you can afford £400 shoes :)

Would Sir care to purchase a lovely bargain shoebox to house said shoes? :lol:

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I never said crashes happen quickly, unlike numerous members a year or so ago.

Your pretty cranky for someone whose winning here. Anyway, it doesn't really matter about the speculation, because I still can't afford a house at current prices. So I may as well indulge in a little optimism rather than acceed to your tresis which after all is a very pesimistic scenario for me that if taken seriously would involve quiting my day job (because whats the point), and sleeping with the birds in trafalgar square!

You might not be able to afford a house, but other people can. A lot of people on this forum don't buy because they are hoping for a fall, not because they can't. Anyway, why is my scenario so pessimistic? I doubt, you're facing living on the streets.

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I never said crashes happen quickly, unlike numerous members a year or so ago.

You might not be able to afford a house, but other people can. A lot of people on this forum don't buy because they are hoping for a fall, not because they can't. Anyway, why is my scenario so pessimistic? I doubt, you're facing living on the streets.

You are right that a lot of people can afford a house TODAY but choose not to.

However, if interest rates were to rise significantly they would no longer be able to afford it.

Houses are typically purchased over a 25 year period so it is an important consideration.

If you look at virtually any 25 year period, you will see that from low to high inetrest rates have trebled. Have a think about that.

NDL

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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