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RichM

The Clock Ticks On Economic Collapse

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The clock ticks on economic collapse

Alarming, and also macabre, final paragraphs:

The world's big central banks have been able to keep the global economy humming along despite the doubling of oil prices over the last two years, but they have done so by holding interest rates at or below the rate of inflation for an extended period - stretching the world's imbalances ever further.

Paul Volcker, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, warns that this is a hazardous game. In congressional testimony this year, he said the global economy was skating on "thin ice" as the US current account deficit tops 6pc of GDP and overall US debt levels reach historic highs above 280pc of GDP.

The hammer blow of a flu pandemic may well break that ice. Once it happens, there will be bargains galore for cool investors willing to bet - at the moment of deepest despair - that human ingenuity will quickly put the world economy back on its feet.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
The hammer blow of a flu pandemic may well break that ice. Once it happens, there will be bargains galore for cool investors willing to bet - at the moment of deepest despair - that human ingenuity will quickly put the world economy back on its feet.

My goodness, I thgought I was being pessimistic (doom mongering as certain people would have it).

I suppose if you survive with your finances intact, there's no reason not to have a bet on human ingenuity, you've already been pretty lucky thus far.

I remember James Burke in his TV series Connections saying that there was a big wave of relief and optimism after the Black Death which kick started European societies again.

And for all those bulls out there offended by such doom mongering, hush, it's only a story. Just make-believe. Nothing to worry about. Go back to sleep.

Oh, you already are asleep! ;)

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The clock ticks on economic collapse

Alarming, and also macabre, final paragraphs:

ooh, I dunno. Seems quite optimistic in comparison with what one reads on here sometimes! Namely the last sentence about being rewarded for optimism at the nadir.

I was thinking along similar lines earlier. As the herd starts to move to recognising the problem, I start moving the other way (toward optimism)

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If this appears in the Torygraph we are truely ****.

btw - ive held off on posting this for a while but just to add to the despair -

I was told the other day that France is in "deep, deep trouble".

Who told me?

....A French diplomat.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

If this appears in the Torygraph we are truely ****.

btw - ive held off on posting this for a while but just to add to the despair -

I was told the other day that France is in "deep, deep trouble".

Who told me?

....A French diplomat.

Just goes to show, there's always a silver lining to anything!

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I was told the other day that France is in "deep, deep trouble".

Wow, is the news turning good already?

I thought we had to go through 5 years of misery before seeing the light!

Maybe I'm just starting to enjoy the fruits of this looming recession a bit too soon. :P:P

Edited by BandWagon

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If the worst happens, one would assume that the biggest impact will be where population densities are greatest. Are we going to see people fleeing in panic from the cities?

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Problem is, there isn't anywhere to flee to in the UK - bit of a bugger to flee to a Welsh or Scottish mountain to see several other million people all sat there sneezing.

I wish I had bought one of those post Cold War bunkers back in the '90s! :ph34r:

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Interesting how the unthinkable suddenly becomes thinkable.

What price will houses be if there are 20% less of us?

Let's hope if the flu thing does happen it targets the elderly so we don't have to keep paying their pensions and public sector administration workers in general.

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Let's hope if the flu thing does happen it targets the elderly so we don't have to keep paying their pensions and public sector administration workers in general.

Actually Marina this "strain" is similar to the 1918 one which mainly hit the 20 to 40 Age group!!!

:unsure:

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Get a grip people, this talk of bird flew is a load of hogwash.

It is designed to create an atmosphere of fear, or it is a distraction for something else.

pandemics happen, but they cannot be reliably predicted.

However, I do think that the human race is long overdue for a massive cut in numbers, dont think this will be it though. Pretty much every ill in society can be traced to over population and imbalance/scarcity of resource.

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Actually Marina this "strain" is similar to the 1918 one which mainly hit the 20 to 40 Age group!!!

:unsure:

The 1918 pandemic did hit younger people but you also have to take into account that the average life expectancy in the decade before the pandemic was a lot lower than today, about 45-50 years compared to 75-80 years today. So in 1918 40 years could be consider 'old'.

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What price will houses be if there are 20% less of us?

I don’t think that is possible – did you see that latest immigration figures – only 500000 people entered the country this year – and 300000 left (very ruff figures as I could not remember them but we are at least 200000 up from last year on immigration alone)

If 20% was lost I think Tony has reserves of immigrants piled 10 high in council houses waiting for the day when he will give them a house each

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Bird Flu

Mad Cow

Foot 'n' mouth

Y2K

Aids

Tiger economies crash

Balkans war

Iraq war

Chinese selling dollars en - mass

Tech buble bursting

All these have been given instruments of mass destruction by perma - bears in the past.

Same old same old.

Even if we have a recession you guys will be the last in the queue to aquire cheap assetts, you wont have the bottle.

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Even if we have a recession you guys will be the last in the queue to aquire cheap assetts, you wont have the bottle.

Sounding slightly bitter there....

What do you mean anyway? Are you equating foresight in not buying into a market at the peak with not having "bottle"? So "bottle" is buying stuff that is going to collapse in value is it?

Maybe if there is a crash, then while the herd are saying "don't invest in property, it has crashed 30% in the last 2 years", or whatever, people on here will be buying cheap assests which will rise.

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Guest growl

"This would be an extreme negative shock to the world economy. You'd see equity markets unravelling everywhere as people began to think through the implications. The dollar might collapse if Asians decided to keep their money at home. Gold could do well,"

Is nothing safe. :huh:

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Sounding slightly bitter there....

What do you mean anyway? Are you equating foresight in not buying into a market at the peak with not having "bottle"? So "bottle" is buying stuff that is going to collapse in value is it?

Maybe if there is a crash, then while the herd are saying "don't invest in property, it has crashed 30% in the last 2 years", or whatever, people on here will be buying cheap assests which will rise.

I've long been fascinated by permabears, a description that applies to many on here, all though they dont yet recognise the fact.

I bought property to let and at the time those of a generally negative persuasion thought me mad.

The same thing happened when I started loading - up with tech share just after the tech bubble burst. Again bears simply couldnt envisage tech shares recovering.

Now Im in the processing of buying in Berlin and again most bears on here think this foolhardy with comments such as 'what makes you think the Germans will ever climb out of recession'?

CAN U SEE MY POINT? Germany is clearly in trough territory and its easy to buy. Appartments are as little as £20000 and some land just a few thousand euros, yet still the permabears stick with cash accounts and repaying there mortgages.

Most bears consider themselves rational, and many think they will become bullish at the trough, but I guarantee you many of them will remain bears, so always miss - out.

Edited by dogbox

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Now Im in the processing of buying in Berlin and again most bears on here think this foolhardy with comments such as 'what makes you think the Germans will ever climb out of recession'?
Unexploded wartime bombs

Other cities in Europe face similar problems - particularly Berlin, where the allied onslaught was relentless.

:rolleyes:

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Actually dogbox, plenty of people on here have recognised that Germany might be a good bet for property, but not everyone wants to "invest" in proeprty, many people on here just want somewhere to live. Owning somewhere in Berlin or wherever, doesn't help me bring up kids in the SE of England.

Edited by RichM

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As a bloke, Im not really worried about his "bird" flu - unless of course I could catch it from the wife.... B)

Sorry to trivialise, I'm feeling pretty vacant today.

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A VISION OF YOU, THE BEAR IN 30 YEARS;

I've known a chap in his seventies for about 10 years.

He's a mega - bear.

During that 10 years his missed - out on the SM boom and the property boom.

He's always stuck with cash accounts and the odd safe FTSE share.

He retired recently and now complains he doesnt have enough in the Bank to live on.

During the last 10 years he constantly warned me a depression was about to unfold, usually as a result of a trigger such as foot 'n' mouth, Aids, Japan, Labour getting in, Mad cow, Y2K and so on.

In other words, he sounds exactly like the majority on this forum.

Now, had he been prepared to remove his doom - specs now and again he might have bought a B2L in the mid - nineties and now have a lot more money in the Bank.

His negative nature was all conquering.

Actually dogbox, plenty of people on here have recognised that Germany might be a good bet for property, but not everyone wants to "invest" in proeprty, many people on here just want somewhere to live. Owning somewhere in Berlin or wherever, doesn't help me bring up kids in the SE of England.

When I bought my first B2L I had little margin and our first baby was on the way. I was terrified and kept saying to myself 'I ought to just focus on paying - off my mortgage'.

Im actually pretty terrified investing in Berlin for all sorts of reasons. I could be ill tomorrow and wish I hadnt tied - up money in a foreign land.

The point I try to get accross is that you all need to recognise whether or not you are simply overly negative, and if the answer is yes, is there anything you should do about this?

Asians settled in my area in the 1970s with nothing. Despite awfull economic enviroment, and lots of bearish sentiment many quietly started buying property - at great risk and usually with families to support. In the long run those people now have a comfortable life for them and thier children. WOULD YOU HAVE DONT THIS, or would you have always found reasons to avoid taking a risk?

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A VISION OF YOU, THE BEAR IN 30 YEARS;

blah blah blah

Dogbox, there's people on here who cleaned up in the mid-nineties. I however was busy doing my GCSEs. Neither Daddy or the banks would have lent me the money for an BTL!!! I am not an eternal pessimist, I can just see how buying property NOW is very dangerous, especially if you have only a deposit to put down (which the wife and I don't even have as we have been paying off student loans).

The young do not have the money to keep this bubble up. It might carry on for a while longer, but that would just involve trapping even more people.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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