WageSlaveBear Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 I'm guessing it will. Be the usual subliminal fall for both year on year and monthly. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Guest_Bosworth_* Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 (edited) My vote is on a small rise to offset doom and gloom. +0.2%. Market expecting -0.3% Edited April 4, 2012 by Bosworth Quote Link to post Share on other sites
57percent Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 My vote is on a small rise to offset doom and gloom. +0.2%. Market expecting -0.3% Not sure this month, but I'm expecting the next few months to be down. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Pent Up Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Massive rise 2.2%. There will be an even bigger fall next month now. Could even rival the monster -3.6% from last year. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
deflation Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 +2.2% WTF! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dancake Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 +2.2% WTF! Pretty hefty uptick but not unexpected. Roll on next month for a resumption of the falls (crosses fingers). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Hun Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Here's a link for those of us who need real information not random comments http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/04/04/uk-halifax-house-price-index-2-2-mm-in-march/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
deflation Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Here's a link for those of us who need real information not random comments http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/04/04/uk-halifax-house-price-index-2-2-mm-in-march/ Comments 'closed' after one contribution for some reason. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Little Professor Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Not on the official site yet http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/economic_insight/halifax_house_price_index_page.asp Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Little Professor Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 (edited) It is now! Confirmed, +2.2% MoM, -0.1% QoQ, -0.6% YoY http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halifax/2012/0404_HPI.pdf HOUSE PRICE CRASH CANCELLED! Edited April 4, 2012 by Little Professor Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Bruce Banner Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 How exciting . Quote Link to post Share on other sites
@contradevian Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Presumably based on two mortgages approved to oligarchs buying in Kensington? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
notnow Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Oh dear lord buy now, be quick, don't miss out on the next massive property bubble. Ford Focus estates are going up hugely in price tomorrow, did I mention I have one for sale? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SleepyHead Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Headline should be, 'UK workers priced out of world jobs market as their housing costs rise by 2.2%' but it won't be. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
stuckmojo Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 I am beginning to think that HPC can sometimes explain the behaviour of the equity markets: -1% 2 days ago, crash on. 2/2% today, HPC cancelled. This, with all the focus on the stamp duty holiday: From the report itself: The recent increase in sales may have been driven by first-time buyers seeking to beat the end of the stamp duty holiday. The proportion of house purchasers who are firsttime buyers increased between the final quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012. This suggests that the ending of the temporary increase in the starting threshold of stamp duty for first-time buyers from £125,000 to £250,000 in late March encouraged some to buy before the threshold reverted to the lower level. An extra four in ten first-time buyers – 150,000 in total - have been exempt from paying stamp duty as a result of the Government temporarily doubling the starting threshold over the past two years. In the real world, in my neck of the woods, supply of <150,000£ houses I actually want is increasing very quickly. What is selling is either shitty flats for £30,000 or footballers' houses for >£750,000. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
notnow Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 I love the way halifax says average price is now the same as last July, without mentioning it is also the same as April 2006 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
southeast Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Well thats just made my day....not! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
RufflesTheGuineaPig Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Anyone know what the SA is on this? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
scottbeard Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 It's never wise to read too much into one month's figure in these surveys. A while back there was a -3.6% that caused whoops of joy, only for it to be largely reversed over the next two months. A single +2.2% is hard to read anything into, especially with the stamp duty change in the mix. I wouldn't be surprised to see some offsetting negatives in the next couple of months. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
zebbedee Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Um', I have a question, halifax are claiming 2.2% m/m rise and using the stamp duty holiday ending as the excuse. Why would buyers pay 2.2% more to get in under the deadline for a saving of 1%? Or did halifax feel they needed a big plus this month and didn't figure out the flaw in the logic. I no longer believe any of the indices. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Bruce Banner Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Um', I have a question, halifax are claiming 2.2% m/m rise and using the stamp duty holiday ending as the excuse. Why would buyers pay 2.2% more to get in under the deadline for a saving of 1%? Or did halifax feel they needed a big plus this month and didn't figure out the flaw in the logic. I no longer believe any of the indices. If I were a VI producing an index, I'd manipulate it to be negative in months where nobody moves house and publish large gains in historical buying seasons, like the spring. As long as the books balance at year end nobody will notice . Quote Link to post Share on other sites
nickincash Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Um', I have a question, halifax are claiming 2.2% m/m rise and using the stamp duty holiday ending as the excuse. Why would buyers pay 2.2% more to get in under the deadline for a saving of 1%? Or did halifax feel they needed a big plus this month and didn't figure out the flaw in the logic. I no longer believe any of the indices. Buyers don't have to pay the for the house - they get free money from the lender so why worry about the price. SDLT on the other hand has to be paid in real money, the same sort of money that people buy petrol and beer with, not the pretend Monopoly money they 'buy' houses with. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
rantnrave Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Let's hope they are just positioning themselves for falls in the coming months re changes in the budget. Still, 2.2% is a big slap in the face that's very difficult to spin as pointing to a HPC. The Express will be all over this. After an extended period of diverging, the Halifax and Nationwide are now pretty much aligned. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NEO72 Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Um', I have a question, halifax are claiming 2.2% m/m rise and using the stamp duty holiday ending as the excuse. Why would buyers pay 2.2% more to get in under the deadline for a saving of 1%? Or did halifax feel they needed a big plus this month and didn't figure out the flaw in the logic. I no longer believe any of the indices. Because outside HPC-world, many FTBs: 1. Are financially retarded. 2. Would take a couple of grand cash over less mortgage debt. 3. Don't expect prices to fall and just want to 'get on the ladder'. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
deflation Posted April 4, 2012 Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Both the Halifax themselves and the BBC are realistic about this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17607991 Quite downbeat really. Pleasing. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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