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TheLittleGuy

Still Kidding Yourselves I See?

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Well, I've popped back to see what's going on here. I see the HPC community continues its struggle against reality. Still haven't updated the home page graph I see. Why is that, I wonder? Unable to cope with the facts? Still in denial?

Just face it: nominal property prices are not going to rise or fall to any significant degree for quite some time to come. House prices are fairly stable, and without an economic force to drive them down they'll stay that way for the foreseeable. Oh, and by economic force I'm not talking about the usual wishful-thinking-straw-clutching that usually goes on around here. I mean an actual definite unavoidable real crisis that'll financially hurt millions of households, generating widespread forced property sales.

Think about it. Since the "peak" the average national house price has actually risen. The property market has recovered somewhat from initial falls in transaction levels. The "expert" opinion here continues to be proved wrong. Sentiment hasn't turned; there is no panic selling. In fact it seems that one prominent HPC uberbear has recently bought a house and another has simply stopped posting!

So what else is new here? Well, I see that pretty much all of the moderate posters have now left. What a shame. This used to be a fun site. Can't say I blame them though; I can't tolerate the pathetic ignorant uberbear nutters that use this site as a substitute for a life.

Ah well. Remind me again, what comes after the denial pahese? Is it the anger phase? :)

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Well, I've popped back to see what's going on here. I see the HPC community continues its struggle against reality. Still haven't updated the home page graph I see. Why is that, I wonder? Unable to cope with the facts? Still in denial?

Just face it: nominal property prices are not going to rise or fall to any significant degree for quite some time to come. House prices are fairly stable, and without an economic force to drive them down they'll stay that way for the foreseeable. Oh, and by economic force I'm not talking about the usual wishful-thinking-straw-clutching that usually goes on around here. I mean an actual definite unavoidable real crisis that'll financially hurt millions of households, generating widespread forced property sales.

Think about it. Since the "peak" the average national house price has actually risen. The property market has recovered somewhat from initial falls in transaction levels. The "expert" opinion here continues to be proved wrong. Sentiment hasn't turned; there is no panic selling. In fact it seems that one prominent HPC uberbear has recently bought a house and another has simply stopped posting!

So what else is new here? Well, I see that pretty much all of the moderate posters have now left. What a shame. This used to be a fun site. Can't say I blame them though; I can't tolerate the pathetic ignorant uberbear nutters that use this site as a substitute for a life.

Ah well. Remind me again, what comes after the denial pahese? Is it the anger phase? :)

I don't mean to be rude but you appear to be somewhat angry. I wouldn't describe myself as an uberbear, by the way. Just someone who thinks that house prices have spun out of control. Whether or not there will be a crash will only be seen in the fullness of time, but we are free to speculate certain outcomes just as the bulls are.

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Nice to have some bulls back thanks to vested interest groups have been talking up the market lately. It’s a pity nobody independent has offered anything to back these claims up

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Many thanks for taking the time to visit us extremists again Mr sensible. BTW, many of us don't expect to see a rapid UK-wide downturn anytime soon, though a slump is definitely kicking in in my part of Wales.

As for 'without an economic force to drive them down' - have you been reading mainstream economic commentaries recently? Many are pretty negative about the future prospects for UK plc.

TA-RA

Gruff

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Guest absolutezero

?

Just face it: nominal property prices are not going to rise or fall to any significant degree for quite some time to come. House prices are fairly stable, and without an economic force to drive them down they'll stay that way for the foreseeable. Oh, and by economic force I'm not talking about the usual wishful-thinking-straw-clutching that usually goes on around here. I mean an actual definite unavoidable real crisis that'll financially hurt millions of households, generating widespread forced property sales.

I think you'll find we have that economic force (or it's starting to happen anyway).

It's called a recession. Job losses. Defaulted mortgage payments.

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Ah well. Remind me again, what comes after the denial pahese? Is it the anger phase?

Unusually on this site it seems to be the "popping back to have a pop" phase. :D

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Ah well. Remind me again, what comes after the denial pahese? Is it the anger phase? :)

There are some that get stuck in the denial phase unable to see what is going on around them.

:)

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Well, I've popped back to see what's going on here. I see the HPC community continues its struggle against reality. Still haven't updated the home page graph I see. Why is that, I wonder? Unable to cope with the facts? Still in denial?

Just face it: nominal property prices are not going to rise or fall to any significant degree for quite some time to come. House prices are fairly stable, and without an economic force to drive them down they'll stay that way for the foreseeable. Oh, and by economic force I'm not talking about the usual wishful-thinking-straw-clutching that usually goes on around here. I mean an actual definite unavoidable real crisis that'll financially hurt millions of households, generating widespread forced property sales.

Think about it. Since the "peak" the average national house price has actually risen. The property market has recovered somewhat from initial falls in transaction levels. The "expert" opinion here continues to be proved wrong. Sentiment hasn't turned; there is no panic selling. In fact it seems that one prominent HPC uberbear has recently bought a house and another has simply stopped posting!

So what else is new here? Well, I see that pretty much all of the moderate posters have now left. What a shame. This used to be a fun site. Can't say I blame them though; I can't tolerate the pathetic ignorant uberbear nutters that use this site as a substitute for a life.

Ah well. Remind me again, what comes after the denial pahese? Is it the anger phase? :)

Still in denial?

Would the decreasing volumes of transactions or the huge increase in mortgage defaults or the steady upward pressure on interest rates possibly suggest you are in denial. Oh no, prices are rising, the Halifax says so, so it must be true. :D

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The slump appears to be setting in a little later than expected however the market now appears to be at (or very slightly past) the top.

IMO prices have been mainly supported recently by expectations of further price rises (the bubble effect), with the indicators now heading towards zero or worse this factor is removed.

If expectations move to zero then:

a) BTL becomes pointless with no prospect of capital gains to offset the negative yields.

B) The rush to be an FTB is slowed because the "now or never" factor is removed.

If expectations then become negative:

a) Rational buyers will factor in future capital losses into the prices they are willing to pay today.

B) Rational sellers will accept lower prices today rather than hold onto the asset as it depreciates further.

It is then possible that a reverse bubble effect could occur with reports of falling values sparking a flood from the BTL market and FTBs similarly put off, every fall pushing expectations downwards provoking greater falls.

To summarise: to understand the market today you need to understand the effect of expectations on the price paid, the VIs can talk up expectations for so long but ultimately people will believe their own eyes and won't pay inflated prices in a falling market.

Edited by Young Goat

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Once in a while I get bored - that's all. B)

Try Bingo.

I remember our last discussion had you insisting transactions were now "back to normal" having had a brief summer lull but just yesterday I read in the Financial Times that the ratio of sales to stock had now fallen below 30% (compared with a long run average of 37.1).

They seem to think things are still 20% lower than "normal"... but I doubt you'll be debating anything along these lines, I suspect you have decided to become a "guerilla bull" who nips in for ten minutes of triumph when one semi-bullish report comes out and then keeps his head down for the rest of the time.

Strange really, I reckon there must be thousands of Internet forums on things I don't agree with or have no interest in but I never seem to get bored enough to go and post there.

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Well, I've popped back to see what's going on here. I see the HPC community continues its struggle against reality. Still haven't updated the home page graph I see. Why is that, I wonder? Unable to cope with the facts? Still in denial?

Just face it: nominal property prices are not going to rise or fall to any significant degree for quite some time to come. House prices are fairly stable, and without an economic force to drive them down they'll stay that way for the foreseeable. Oh, and by economic force I'm not talking about the usual wishful-thinking-straw-clutching that usually goes on around here. I mean an actual definite unavoidable real crisis that'll financially hurt millions of households, generating widespread forced property sales.

Think about it. Since the "peak" the average national house price has actually risen. The property market has recovered somewhat from initial falls in transaction levels. The "expert" opinion here continues to be proved wrong. Sentiment hasn't turned; there is no panic selling. In fact it seems that one prominent HPC uberbear has recently bought a house and another has simply stopped posting!

So what else is new here? Well, I see that pretty much all of the moderate posters have now left. What a shame. This used to be a fun site. Can't say I blame them though; I can't tolerate the pathetic ignorant uberbear nutters that use this site as a substitute for a life.

Okay..

Not dropping yet..

but a new build flats round me are down 22%

and still not selling..

and don't forget affordability now fails to the same level in 2005 at 6% IR that 15% IR caused in 1999..

yup.. they are that mmuch more expensive.. and the fiscal drain on the economy caused by high house prices and related debt maintainence is what causes them to return down.. the big events you mention are always caused by fiscal drain on the economy caused by debt... blah..

the economy sets house prices. and we can only rock the boat.. the economy steers it my friend..

Where do you think this extra money to buy the houses come from?

Where did you think it used to go to.... and is it being missed?

I think perhaps it is..

Economics simple

Ah well. Remind me again, what comes after the denial pahese? Is it the anger phase? :)

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The slump appears to be setting in a little later than expected however the market now appears to be at (or very slightly past) the top.

IMO prices have been mainly supported recently by expectations of further price rises (the bubble effect), with the indicators now heading towards zero or worse this factor is removed.

If expectations move to zero then:

a) BTL becomes pointless with no prospect of capital gains to offset the negative yields.

B) The rush to be an FTB is slowed because the "now or never" factor is removed.

If expectations then become negative:

a) Rational buyers will factor in future capital losses into the prices they are willing to pay today.

B) Rational sellers will accept lower prices today rather than hold onto the asset as it depreciates further.

It is then possible that a reverse bubble effect could occur with reports of falling values sparking a flood from the BTL market and FTBs similarly put off, every fall pushing expectations downwards provoking greater falls.

To summarise: to understand the market today you need to understand the effect of expectations on the price paid, the VIs can talk up expectations for so long but ultimately people will believe their own eyes and won't pay inflated prices in a falling market.

Nice post distilling what many HPCers have seen coming for a while on this board - we are now at the cusp I think - it all depends where things go in the next 6 months. I tend to think we are on that part of the rollercoaster just past the peak of the climb when all still looks relatively calm and ahead there looks like flat or only slightly declining track providing misplaced confidence just before the earthbound rush arrives in a hurry when you least expect it. Of course we could stagnate at these levels for years, who knows. I don't believe it though.

Sentiment is turning whatever Rightmove say. When it becomes mainstream we will be there.

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I can see you've been on that "How to make friends and influence people" course then!

"I can't tolerate the pathetic ignorant uberbear nutters"

I suggest that rather than trolling on forums you get you're Mum to buy some steps for your shoes and go out and get yourself a girlfriend.

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You are right TLG : everything in the garden is rosy. I mean to say, who is really, I mean really financially stretched, eh?

Death pact couple tried to poison their five children, Telegraph, 19/10/05

"Despite owing £30,000, the Cartiers bought a new house at Laversines, near Beauvais, in 2000"

And that was FRANCE three years ago. I can't imagine the situation has improved since. Aside from the obvious tragedy, I couldn't help but be struck by their names : Patricia and Emmanuel Cartier. Life seems so cynically poetic some days ...

PS: nice to see you are still a bull this time around. Just waiting for obvious statistics I guess.

Edited by Sledgehead

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Sorry to read your unpleasant tone, TLG, because last time you came on here getting all bullish I remember urging fellow HPCers to be nice to you. Seems it was a waste of effort.

The key word in your post is "somewhat". Yes, volumes have recovered "somewhat", but they aren't back to former levels, as you concede. If that does happen it'll either be because people are willing to start borrowing large sums again or because sensible sellers are willing to cut prices. But as long as volumes are way down normal mobility can't take place. People who want to move will have to find a way to get the market moving again. At a time of falling economic confidence and rising joblessness I can only see one way this can happen.

Just remember too - you have to keep on being right, every day. We only need to be right once.

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I can't be bothered writing one of my essays in response to this one, but would say this:

It's just a little odd that asking prices in Blackpool on a whole range of properties, are higher than comparable properties in much more affluent parts of the South East.

The actual asking price is irrelevant of course in today's market, since they don't sell anyway, they're kind of "decorations" and the For Sale signs really brighten the streets up.

But then the studies show prices going up in the North West. I must have just imagined it when the prices were cut then cut then cut again and I'm also imagining the For Sale boards are still there two years on when really the market is still moving.

Roll on the third year on the market for these, the "20% off" cuts haven't found the right level yet. Nobody actually knows what they're "worth" but I can see some aggrieved vendors when they find out. Offered the asking on your next property, couldn't sell and got a bridging loan? Ouch....

Or maybe in the next few months all this unsold stock will suddenly sell for no real reason and the people in Blackpool can laugh at the cheap houses down South, maybe move down and get rid of their mortgage. Sounds pretty sustainable to me.

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Guest consa

Well, I've popped back to see what's going on here. I see the HPC community continues its struggle against reality. Still haven't updated the home page graph I see. Why is that, I wonder? Unable to cope with the facts? Still in denial?

Just face it: nominal property prices are not going to rise or fall to any significant degree for quite some time to come. House prices are fairly stable, and without an economic force to drive them down they'll stay that way for the foreseeable. Oh, and by economic force I'm not talking about the usual wishful-thinking-straw-clutching that usually goes on around here. I mean an actual definite unavoidable real crisis that'll financially hurt millions of households, generating widespread forced property sales.

Think about it. Since the "peak" the average national house price has actually risen. The property market has recovered somewhat from initial falls in transaction levels. The "expert" opinion here continues to be proved wrong. Sentiment hasn't turned; there is no panic selling. In fact it seems that one prominent HPC uberbear has recently bought a house and another has simply stopped posting!

So what else is new here? Well, I see that pretty much all of the moderate posters have now left. What a shame. This used to be a fun site. Can't say I blame them though; I can't tolerate the pathetic ignorant uberbear nutters that use this site as a substitute for a life.

Ah well. Remind me again, what comes after the denial pahese? Is it the anger phase? :)

Sorry, I forgot all about you, crawled out of the woodwork again have we or has mumsy let you on the computer again for eating all your vegetables :lol:

Anyway have you got any interesting news or just drivel again, hmmmm................ yep just drivel again.

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It really is quite amazing that there are still people who don't understand that the economy is cyclical.

Right now we've come to the end of a very prosperous era in the UK's economic history, and consequently assets are priced to perfection, there is absolutely no room for bad news.

The trouble is that now the economy unravels, as it always does at this stage, and those assets find they're unsupported by econonomic fundamentals (ie jobs, as they now begin to disappear)

It's happening now, and it will happen again.

Some people are just too foolish to learn from history.

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Well, I've popped back to see what's going on here. I see the HPC community continues its struggle against reality. Still haven't updated the home page graph I see. Why is that, I wonder? Unable to cope with the facts? Still in denial?

Just face it: nominal property prices are not going to rise or fall to any significant degree for quite some time to come. House prices are fairly stable, and without an economic force to drive them down they'll stay that way for the foreseeable. Oh, and by economic force I'm not talking about the usual wishful-thinking-straw-clutching that usually goes on around here. I mean an actual definite unavoidable real crisis that'll financially hurt millions of households, generating widespread forced property sales.

Think about it. Since the "peak" the average national house price has actually risen. The property market has recovered somewhat from initial falls in transaction levels. The "expert" opinion here continues to be proved wrong. Sentiment hasn't turned; there is no panic selling. In fact it seems that one prominent HPC uberbear has recently bought a house and another has simply stopped posting!

So what else is new here? Well, I see that pretty much all of the moderate posters have now left. What a shame. This used to be a fun site. Can't say I blame them though; I can't tolerate the pathetic ignorant uberbear nutters that use this site as a substitute for a life.

Ah well. Remind me again, what comes after the denial pahese? Is it the anger phase? :)

I don't understand. Why did you join HPC in the first place? In my opinion the HPC is still going to happen. The tiny drop in interest rate has had a short term effect, but with inflation at its highest rate in 12 years things are looking gloomy. Although it seems house prices have gone up since the peak, you must take into consideration inflation, which actually still means that houses are worth less ever though the no of £'s has slightly risen (the pound is now weaker). Maybe the reason you left HPC is you didn't understand all this!? The pure fact that you have come back to "gloat" makes you pathetic and ignorant, not everyone else, and to try and get people to bite - which you have done. But that is all you have acheived. If you cant tolerate us then why come back to the site? If i cant tolerate something I generally avoid it if I can. Its like walking into a pub you dont like and saying "I hate it in here" - why go in!? If you have got nothing better to do than go on websites you dont like to wind people up I feel somewhat sorry for you!

Edited by deano_54321

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Guest horace

>>> good post TheLittleGuy

What numerous posters fail to appreciate is ROGERS LAW.

ROGERS LAW states that if an expert gives an Expert Opinion always take the opposite view.

How many `experts` do we have posting here, there and everywhere?

horace

Edited by horace

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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