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Matador

North London

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I'm a FTB looking to buy a property in N.London (not including the area afected by the 'Olympic craze')

Rough area from Stanmore to Enfield (I know that a large area).

What are your opinions of the market for a FTB?

I think that prices have dropped around 5% in total over the last year and if you consider that a extra 5% can be negotiated of the asking price.

IMO thats a 10% drop!

Now predictions for 2006? ?????

I think its extremely tough to call and it'll depend on the economy and confidence. But i'm going for a 10% next year too.

Anyone experienced in what happened in last crash? Any similarities, I was too young to remember......even though I remember my dad bad mouthing the EA's......some things dont change!

Regards

Matador

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Now predictions for 2006? ?????

I think its extremely tough to call and it'll depend on the economy and confidence. But i'm going for a 10% next year too.

Anyone experienced in what happened in last crash? Any similarities, I was too young to remember......even though I remember my dad bad mouthing the EA's......some things dont change!

Yep, I follow N14 and Hadley Wood very closely. Literally everything on Rightmove has been there for 6-9 months+ without sale. Prices have edged down by the sort of figures you suggest, and I'd agree that 5-10% more off next year will be about right. I also think that you could easily pull another 5-10% off even those asking prices.

The thing is, I think it's going to be like that over the next 2-3 years: steady but significant declines, rather than one big 'crash'. I rent a nice place at a very cheap rent, so I'll just sit tight and ride it out.

I do remember North London in the last crash. Saw many friends get their fingers badly burnt. I remember being a 'lone voice' at the last peak of the market, but I had my day. So will you. :D

Nomadd

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Thanks for that Nomadd!

Can you remember the % drop in the north london area during the last crash?

IMO from august 2004 prices will drop 20% before they start to rise, i cant see larger falls, i think i've grown up my adult life in this alleged boom boom economy and find the idea of even predicting 20% as extremely bearish!

Speaking to people of my age group 23 - 27 from north london and asking about house prices, i find myself the only person talking about prices going down!

Does anyone else experience this reaction ('house prices will keep on going up') amongst north londoners and young people??

Matador

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IMO from august 2004 prices will drop 20% before they start to rise, i cant see larger falls, i think i've grown up my adult life in this alleged boom boom economy and find the idea of even predicting 20% as extremely bearish!

You're making the mistake of considering price falls in the context of a healthy economy.

From this perspective why should prices fall? That part of the VI argument does make some sense.

However the economy is cyclical, and is now turning down fast.

Speak to the same people when they have lost their jobs, and have little chance of finding another in the near future. Suddenly 50% falls won't seem outrageous.

Just some things to think about...

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The market also has the capacity for significant falls - N London prices have generally increased by 50% since 2001 / 2002 so anyone who has lived there for a few years can afford to move (provided that they have not used the place as a giant ATM through equity release).

When prices fall 10 - 20% it is easy to see the process gatherng pace.

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N London prices have generally increased by 50% since 2001 / 2002

...in previously unfashionable areas of Northeast London perhaps (e.g. Hackney, Stoke Newington).

In my stomping ground (Northwest London: Finchley, Golders Green, Hampstead) the boom happened between 1996 and 2002. Prices have not moved significantly since then.

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In my stomping ground (Northwest London: Finchley, Golders Green, Hampstead) the boom happened between 1996 and 2002. Prices have not moved significantly since then.

Doogie - I have stomped in roughly the same area for the last 8 years or so and can back this up.

It may be heresy to say this (on HPC at least), but I have feeling in my waters that this will be the experience of much of the rest of "middle England" over the next few years, i.e. stagnation, or a slow decline. Good quality areas in London tend to lead the way up or down.

This is not to say that there are not many other overhyped areas (particularly in the North, Wales etc) which will suffer much more becasue they don't have the strong infrastructure and high salaries to support prices which have overshot any realistic earnings multiples.

Edited by mxs

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Doogie - I have stomped in roughly the same area for the last 8 years or so and can back this up.

It may be heresy to say this (on HPC at least), but I have feeling in my waters that this will be the experience of much of the rest of "middle England" over the next few years, i.e. stagnation, or a slow decline. Good quality areas in London tend to lead the way up or down.

Yup I agree, but only if interest rates and unemployment stay low (which they might).

In the early 1990s there were big falls even the best areas due to an abundance of forced sellers. Repossessions were rampant, and there were bargains galore for the cash-rich.

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Here is a interesting map of London house prices from 1988 - 1995 i found on another thread.

The figures are from the Halifax, I think the dates 1988 - 1995 mask the true fall as prices would have been rising already during 1995???

Enjoy

londonprices.jpg

;)

post-3282-1130958823_thumb.jpg

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Here is a interesting map of London house prices from 1988 - 1995 i found on another thread.

The figures are from the Halifax, I think the dates 1988 - 1995 mask the true fall as prices would have been rising already during 1995???

Enjoy

Interesting stats, but remember inflation was relatively high back then, so the falls in real terms would have been much higher than indicated by these nominal figures.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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