switters Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 OK. Theres no reason for calling this apart from that gut feeling.... Also I bought some shares and know that this is a guarantee of the FTSE breaking 6 000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Nice double bluff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicestersq Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 OK. Theres no reason for calling this apart from that gut feeling.... Also I bought some shares and know that this is a guarantee of the FTSE breaking 6 000. Is someone giving a big call, or is it a tiny whisper about a gut feel the ftse might fall a smidge? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 OK. Theres no reason for calling this apart from that gut feeling.... Also I bought some shares and know that this is a guarantee of the FTSE breaking 6 000. Why did you buy some shares if you have a gut feeling of an upcoming big fall?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Why did you buy some shares if you have a gut feeling of an upcoming big fall?! So he could call a black day thread and make a fortune! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
200p Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 I'm feeling bullish rather than bearish. Presidential election year is bullish for stocks. VIX is at 17, that is healthy, anything above 30, one needs to stay out and wait. We're due a pull back so I would take some profits, maybe 50% (everyone must have some right, throw a dart a stock, you should have been up after 7 weeks?), and add on the correction after a review of the situation. The S&P500 http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=spy&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=9864&style=320&freq=2&time=13&rand=1757126530&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=1&maval=30&lf=1&lf2=2&lf3=0&height=444&width=579&mocktick=1 The AXX (FTSE all-share index) http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=uk%3aaxx&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=124515&style=320&freq=2&time=13&rand=208786038&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=1&maval=30&lf=1&lf2=2&lf3=0&height=444&width=579&mocktick=1 DYOR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 OK. Theres no reason for calling this apart from that gut feeling.... Also I bought some shares and know that this is a guarantee of the FTSE breaking 6 000. The market has topped and we can expect 10% off this month. The big falls will likely come in late Spring / Summer. When I say big I mean big. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 I'm feeling bullish rather than bearish. Presidential election year is bullish for stocks. Er...2008 was an election year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 The only thing keeping the fraudexes up is QE. And Benny just announced 'no mas' QE in the WSJ, at least not til December 2012 at the earliest i.e. not until the prez election is done and dusted. Don't sound bullish to me. Benny leaks, spoils the punch The WSJ article indicates that the Fed is on hold for at least three months, till June. Moreover, Bernanke can’t do anything big on the monetary front within five-months before a national election. Therefore, the next legitimate time for another LSAP/QE is in December of 2012. Bernanke’s leak to Hilsenrath is not really new news. I have been saying that Ben is “done” for some time. This confirms it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 The market has topped and we can expect 10% off this month. The big falls will likely come in late Spring / Summer. When I say big I mean big. What's your logic? I recently sold some shares, but it was gut feeling rather than logic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
200p Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Er...2008 was an election year. I am talking about probabilities - there are research papers on this going back for a century. Not every presidential year will be bullish, but out of the four year cycle this year is the most bullish leading up to the election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Black Monday call still looking good. Wall Struck opening down hard. Bears gotta get a grip on Crapple yet though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Black Monday call still looking good. Wall Struck opening down hard. Bears gotta get a grip on Crapple yet though... FTSE closing 0.4% down - that rounds to zero to the nearest 1%. On the original "Black" days in 1987 the FTSE fell 20%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfig Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 FTSE closing 0.4% down - that rounds to zero to the nearest 1%. On the original "Black" days in 1987 the FTSE fell 20%. Always someone splitting hairs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 FTSE closing 0.4% down - that rounds to zero to the nearest 1%. On the original "Black" days in 1987 the FTSE fell 20%. Rumbled again... Moderately Overcast Monday, anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 What's your logic? I recently sold some shares, but it was gut feeling rather than logic. Greece being priced in, Small Caps rolling over, $ rising, Transports rollig over, Apple topping etc etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Greece being priced in, Small Caps rolling over, $ rising, Transports rollig over, Apple topping etc etc Also noteworthy: Baltic Dry Goods Index. Apple, Goog trading at ~600 Continuing oil/fuel price run up Iran ECRI still calling recession Benny having to furlough QE3 'til 2013 because of inflation It could prove to be a Very Black Year... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Also noteworthy: Baltic Dry Goods Index. Apple, Goog trading at ~600 Continuing oil/fuel price run up Iran ECRI still calling recession Benny having to furlough QE3 'til 2013 because of inflation It could prove to be a Very Black Year... When is the Book of Face IPO? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 A day early and a dollar short. Story of my life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruffneck Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Hey at least it's not your day job unlike the bozo economists who failed to predict the GFC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 (edited) I am talking about probabilities - there are research papers on this going back for a century. Not every presidential year will be bullish, but out of the four year cycle this year is the most bullish leading up to the election. Your evidence please? http://www.businessi...-pattern-2011-7 Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch compiled Dow Jones data dating back to 1896 and found the following: - the third year of a presidential cycle significantly outperforms all others, with average stock market gains of 15.5% compared to 8.8% in the first year, 0.4% in the second, and 4.1% in the fourth year; his years begin at the end of September because data is quarterly and elections occur in November - the market performance in the third year of a presidential cycle is not statistically correlated to the market performance of the previous year; in other words, third years have tended to outperform other years regardless of whether the second year in the cycle experienced a boom or a bust - he also found that there is no significant correlation between stock valuations and market performances in the third year; "On average, third years perform just as well when price/earnings ratios are high as they do when those ratios are low" So 4th year appears to be 3rd worst according to Hulbert. DOW (for consistency) is up c. 21% since beginning of October. 500% outperformance (so far). #justsayin Edit: Formatting link Edited March 14, 2012 by Red Knight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
felix Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Get ready for it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 (edited) When though? OK I'm going for this coming Friday. I'm struggling to see the upside, we have had about a 14% return with dividends since the end of May on the FTSE 100, at the time everyone was predicting a 2009 meltdown in the shadow of the Greek elections and even brokers were advising a hold as opposed to buy with a 5900 sell target. Nothing much has changed on the Euro front, especially now the Spanish are dragging their feet on the bailout. Surely a time to cash out and wait for another buying opportunity sub 5500. Even so the market is holding up remarkably well, my pessimism has to be balanced against a wall of QE, enforced pension enrolment and tbh equities look at damn site cheaper than gold and bonds. Edited October 22, 2012 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yes that was interesting, thanks, so this Friday it is then! It just doesn't feel great this week. Earnings figure continue to disappoint, the Bank is considering chucking Qe (but nothing like a crash on the markets to make them change their mind) and predictions are that Germany can no loger defy gravity and it could go negative in Q4 for only the second time since the crunch. And of course the Spanish continue to argue the toss over the bailout conditions and their citizens are ready to trash the joint if they don't get frre welfare money off Germany they don't earn. I could be wrong, but I was relieved to discover that my tracker was sold out at 5900 on Friday following my written instructions.n Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 (edited) interesting.... http://quantifiablee...fiable+Edges%29 (personally seems unlikely because bonds didn't really confirm a big sell off imo) It's the dollar innit. It's been in a fairly tight range for the last 6 weeks which accounts for the apparent weakness in equities. If it breaks up risk's off, if it breaks down risk is on again. So it's either a continuation or reversal. Edit: FWIW I suspect we may well have another 2-3 months left of this risk upleg (following this dip) which will take us into Q1. At which point the risk of a more serious correction looks to increase. Edited October 23, 2012 by Red Knight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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