Pack Of Cards

[mch]

ok so at what point do people see the pack of cards collapsing ?

Greece will default ? it seems most sensible economists say this is 100% guaranteed ?

I read this will lead to a major stock market crash again like 2008

which will then put us back where we were only with massive quantative debt

this will lead to a further crashing

I guess the hope is to get the olympics out of the way first ?

[mfs1959]

ok so at what point do people see the pack of cards collapsing ?

Greece will default ? it seems most sensible economists say this is 100% guaranteed ?

I read this will lead to a major stock market crash again like 2008

which will then put us back where we were only with massive quantative debt

this will lead to a further crashing

I guess the hope is to get the olympics out of the way first ?

Packs of cards don't collapse.

Houses of cards do

[Roman Roady]

It looks like the ISD decision today is quite important .

Has Greece defaulted?

Do they lie and prevent CDS payouts, or confirm what we all know and ensure a new crisis?

[happy_renting]

It looks like the ISD decision today is quite important .

Has Greece defaulted?

Do they lie and prevent CDS payouts, or confirm what we all know and ensure a new crisis?

Due 11am GMT, isn't it ?

[DungBeetle]

It looks like the ISD decision today is quite important .

Has Greece defaulted?

Do they lie and prevent CDS payouts, or confirm what we all know and ensure a new crisis?

I thought the CDS had already been priced into the market / accounted for?

[The Masked Tulip]

I think it will be more like thousands of people falling a long way into giant comfy puffy marshmallows.

[frederico]

With out a change of ecb policy this is going to take a long time to play out, chances are the debt will be unsustainable even by the ecb in about 5 years

[Frank Hovis]

I see it as a long slow decline coming, money printed as needed and with incomes squeezed between high commodity inflation and low wage inflation. This biflation IMO is the thing that will cause house prices to keep falling as there will be less money in peoples' pockets.

[DungBeetle]

I see it as a long slow decline coming, money printed as needed and with incomes squeezed between high commodity inflation and low wage inflation. This biflation IMO is the thing that will cause house prices to keep falling as there will be less money in peoples' pockets.

Biflation, the increase in the cost of people with multiple sexual preferences?

[scottbeard]

Greece will default ? it seems most sensible economists say this is 100% guaranteed ?

I read this will lead to a major stock market crash again like 2008

EVERYONE expects Greece to default (not least because they've ALREADY defaulted a great chunk of debt) including those who are buying shares.

The stock market might even RISE if Greece defaults, if the fallout on banks etc is not as bad as expected.

However, a default by Spain or Italy would be quite different, hence why the ECB just put that off for 3 years via their latest loans.

[interestrateripoff]

It's like trying to predict an earthquake. You know one is due but have insufficient information to know exactly when.

This charade could go on for years/decades yet.

The name of the game is not to let the 5h1t hit the fan whilst you are in charge. Always try and make it someone else's problem.

[Police]

I see it as a long slow decline coming, money printed as needed and with incomes squeezed between high commodity inflation and low wage inflation. This biflation IMO is the thing that will cause house prices to keep falling as there will be less money in peoples' pockets.

Less money in people's pockets - do you mean poor? Poor people don't buy houses.

My feeling is that we are to become a nation of renters - and not by choice.

[Bloo Loo]

Less money in people's pockets - do you mean poor? Poor people don't buy houses.

My feeling is that we are to become a nation of renters - and not by choice.

we already are...checkout the right hand side graph from the people who know:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Feb_2012.pdf

[DeepLurker]

I would ask 'How long did the Roman Empire take to collapse?', but there is no doubt that the pace the world changes at is speeding up exponentially.

Another similarity to the fall of the Roman empire: 2000 years from now, scholars will still be arguing over WHY it happened.

[Diver Dan]

Packs of cards don't collapse.

Houses of cards do

Keep on pulling the sweater, eventually the thing will unravel.

[AThirdWay]

we already are...checkout the right hand side graph from the people who know:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Feb_2012.pdf

And don't the BTL brigade know it! Check the left hand side graph on page 2.

Flies in the face of anecdotals claiming rent reductions, although I suppose it depends on where you live.....

[leicestersq]

Keep on pulling the sweater, eventually the thing will unravel.

It's a case of the immovable force meeting the irresistible object.

[Byron]

10.15am Bank shares starting to rise

[wonderpup]

I thought the CDS had already been priced into the market / accounted for?

I don't think anyone really knows the extent of the risk in the first place- it's mostly 'over the counter' which really means 'under the radar' so the real extent of exposure and counter party risk is not that clear.

The fact that the EU is till propping up Greece implies that their confidence is not that high yet.

[Austin Allegro]

I am of the opinion that we will not have a 'barbarians at the gates' moment. As someone pointed out, Rome never really 'fell', it just changed gradually (in fact one could argue that the Roman Empire still exists in some sense in the Vatican).

The powers that be will do everything possible to present a 'business as usual in Europe' face to the world. I think Greece will simply be propped up indefinitely via a multitude of fiddles and obfuscations, in the same way the British economy is being propped up. Basically a zombie. The last thing the money markets want is more drama.

[Sour Mash]

Less money in people's pockets - do you mean poor? Poor people don't buy houses.

My feeling is that we are to become a nation of renters - and not by choice.

Bingo! Owning a house will be out of reach for most people as there will be a class of well connected people with access to cheap money whilst everyone else sees themselves getting poorer in real terms.

Will the general population be thick enough to acquiesce to the prospect of going back into poverty? My guess is .... Yes, with suitable media management and enough bread and circuses. If that fails there are any number of repressive laws on the books and plenty of civil liberties have been stolen away in the last decade under the guise of 'protecting' the public from any number of illusory threats.

[Austin Allegro]

Bingo! Owning a house will be out of reach for most people as there will be a class of well connected people with access to cheap money whilst everyone else sees themselves getting poorer in real terms.

Will the general population be thick enough to acquiesce to the prospect of going back into poverty? My guess is .... Yes, with suitable media management and enough bread and circuses. If that fails there are any number of repressive laws on the books and plenty of civil liberties have been stolen away in the last decade under the guise of 'protecting' the public from any number of illusory threats.

Yes. 'Combatting Climate Change' and 'Helping the Planet' will be used to make people feel better about poverty, especially the middle classes. It's already happening.

[Sour Mash]

Yes. 'Combatting Climate Change' and 'Helping the Planet' will be used to make people feel better about poverty, especially the middle classes. It's already happening.

Witness the demonisation of driving or flying long-haul. As people got wealthier they wanted the freedom and convenience of owning a car. They wanted to be able to go on holidays to nice foreign places to make their dull lives more bearable. And by and large more and more people were able to do this displaying that the masses were getting wealthier. (I can just about remember when owning a car was not the norm and going abroad on your holidays meant that you had really made it).

Now the campaign has started to get people to give all that up willingly and feel better about it. I can see it working to a point but I'm not sure that enough people will drink the eco flavoured Kool-aid. Oh well, that's what all the laws stripping privacy and making it easier to bang people away with little credible evidence are for.

[JustYield]

Timing? You want bloody timing calls from members of a site started in 2004?!

"Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon and for the rest of your life..."

Make like Rick and roll whichever way the wind blows. This thing is going to grind on and on.

[dances with sheeple]

Bingo! Owning a house will be out of reach for most people as there will be a class of well connected people with access to cheap money whilst everyone else sees themselves getting poorer in real terms.

Will the general population be thick enough to acquiesce to the prospect of going back into poverty? My guess is .... Yes, with suitable media management and enough bread and circuses. If that fails there are any number of repressive laws on the books and plenty of civil liberties have been stolen away in the last decade under the guise of 'protecting' the public from any number of illusory threats.

How will developers/builders/people wishing/needing to sell, sell houses in that case? The only solution I can see is dropping the price. What am I missing?