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Universitybtlbubble To Pop Early?

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This is early - expect the major fallout in 2006 when tutition fees arrive.

BTL in university towns has sucked up 10,000's of first rung properties, a turnaround in student numbers would lead to falling rental values and falling resale values - thing is on the way in they were net reductions to available housing stock, on the way out of the loop they are net sales with no consequent mover-uppers - chains could suffer badly.

http://www.thisishull.co.uk/displayNode.js...tentPK=13334831

UNIVERSITY STAFF FACE JOB LOSSES

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09:30 - 18 October 2005

Redundancies are being made at the University of Lincoln's Hull campus.

It comes as officials carry out a three-month consultation into its future in the city.

......

The university expected to have 2,000 students studying on their four courses this year, but have attracted just 950.

Edited by OnlyMe

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Here in Swansea there seems to be a far highers number of students than usual BUT...

Interestingly, several weeks into the term there are numerous houses in and around the University that still have 'To let' signs outside them from the main letting agencies providing student accomodation.

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This is early - expect the major fallout in 2006 when tutition fees arrive.

BTL in university towns has sucked up 10,000's of first rung properties, a turnaround in student numbers would lead to falling rental values and falling resale values

I went back to Cardiff recently (studied there 1995-1998) and I couldn't believe how many houses had 'To Let' boards on them. This was after term had started so must have represented the un-let stock. In the student areas it was literally every 3rd or 4th house that had a sign on it. When I was there you didn't see these signs as generally all the houses got let out through agents and there wasn't any surplus.

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Here in Swansea there seems to be a far highers number of students than usual BUT...

Interestingly, several weeks into the term there are numerous houses in and around the University that still have 'To let' signs outside them from the main letting agencies providing student accomodation.

TMT,

Same here. Big rush this year by students to get in beofre tuition fees and still an excess of student targeted accommodation. There seemed to be no dent in the number of lets between September/October - very noticeable and very odd.

With a peaking in numbers the Uni's will be forced to look for other avenues for any further income over and above the tuition fees - maybe more specialized accommodation to come.

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Although total student numbers at university will, IMO, remain high I think the impact of top up fees may mean that more students study at their nearest university rather than moving away.

This would mean they could stay at home, save money and there would be less demand for rented student flats/shared houses.

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Although total student numbers at university will, IMO, remain high I think the impact of top up fees may mean that more students study at their nearest university rather than moving away.

This would mean they could stay at home, save money and there would be less demand for rented student flats/shared houses.

Yes, forgot that one. Maybe a small shift in numbers doing this is already happening?

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Although total student numbers at university will, IMO, remain high I think the impact of top up fees may mean that more students study at their nearest university rather than moving away.

This would mean they could stay at home, save money and there would be less demand for rented student flats/shared houses.

I agree with you - this would be an easy way for students to reduce costs, and would have a big impact on local BTL market.

I work in Colchester (Essex University) and I think a fair proportion of BTL is to students.

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I went back to Cardiff recently (studied there 1995-1998) and I couldn't believe how many houses had 'To Let' boards on them. This was after term had started so must have represented the un-let stock. In the student areas it was literally every 3rd or 4th house that had a sign on it. When I was there you didn't see these signs as generally all the houses got let out through agents and there wasn't any surplus.

the same trend has been noticable in Leeds over the last few years too...

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Me, now I've never understood how the national "cake" could expand enough to give what, 40%, of the population "graduate" levels of salaries.

Feel free to shoot me down.

However, anecdotal, Mrs. M was recently interviewing for 2 teaching assistants for her school.

Some 20 applicants, now I can't remember exact nos. but more than half had degrees. 1 was a first in Mathematics, another a first in Chemistry.

It amazed me as these aren't well paid jobs.

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I am not sure what the state of tutition fees in Wales is but I know there was heated discussion over the Summer months re Welsh Universitys about to been swamped with graduates from the rest of the UK because Wales has already, or was planning to, abolish tutition fees.

Again, if this now means the higher number of students it does not explain the number ofp roperties still available to rent.

All the buggers have brought a car with them so our roads have gone from Summer calm and emptiness to one where it is almost impossible to find somewhere to park.

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I have started monitoring the numbers of rented property available in Bath as part of my market watch (V sad I know, but I am a techie and I like data). The numbers drop dramatically just before term started, not surprisingly, but just lately the number of rentals come on to the market as started to rise quite quickly. I had assumed it was sellers trying to rent until the market picked up.

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I had assumed it was sellers trying to rent until the market picked up.

When I was looking for a new place to rent, I noticed a lot of houses with both 'for sale' and 'to let' signs. Which puzzled me: who the hell is going to want to rent a place if the owner plans to sell it?

After a while I got to the point where I'd vet landlords before even looking at the place, by checking that the house wasn't for sale and wasn't bought in the last few years (so they could afford to pay the mortgage).

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When I was looking for a new place to rent, I noticed a lot of houses with both 'for sale' and 'to let' signs. Which puzzled me: who the hell is going to want to rent a place if the owner plans to sell it?

After a while I got to the point where I'd vet landlords before even looking at the place, by checking that the house wasn't for sale and wasn't bought in the last few years (so they could afford to pay the mortgage).

I'm seeing a lot of this also. Houses that are both for sale and rent. I am also seeing housing for sale on the market for 6-12 months and then pulled off and put up for rent.

I feel the same as you...who is going to rent somewhere if they think the owner is going to sell at the first sniff of some interest.

I was thinking of moving recently (renting) but, to be honest, the rented market around me is so full of this that I just can't risk numerous moves (got a child) so I am staying put for now.

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I think this is all a sign of desperation. I bet there are a lot of sellers out there wondering why they cannot sell / rent their property when the market is improving!

The panic will start soon.

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My impression, from my local area, is that economically things are ok. There is no sign of people not being able to pay mortgages (well only very little). But there seems to be a lot of people with two homes. I don't think these are BTL. I have been tracing many of these houses over the last 6-12months.

What seems to have happend is people have bought another house (last year when the market was still good). When they didn't seel their original home they moved anyway...and then the market stagnated. They are trying to rent out...they can't sell for lower as it won't cover their increased mortgage from 'moving up' ...so they rent to cover the new mortgage.

Problem is most of them are empty...I am now seeing rented houses with multiple agencies.

At the first wiff of house price falls these people will panic and try and sell. I think they have been told by EA's to hold on for a 'spring bounce'. when that doesn't happen I am expect fun and games in my neck of the woods.

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My impression, from my local area, is that economically things are ok. There is no sign of people not being able to pay mortgages (well only very little). But there seems to be a lot of people with two homes. I don't think these are BTL. I have been tracing many of these houses over the last 6-12months.

What seems to have happend is people have bought another house (last year when the market was still good). When they didn't seel their original home they moved anyway...and then the market stagnated. They are trying to rent out...they can't sell for lower as it won't cover their increased mortgage from 'moving up' ...so they rent to cover the new mortgage.

Problem is most of them are empty...I am now seeing rented houses with multiple agencies.

At the first wiff of house price falls these people will panic and try and sell. I think they have been told by EA's to hold on for a 'spring bounce'. when that doesn't happen I am expect fun and games in my neck of the woods.

These are the first wave of forced sellers. They must be hurting by now. It cannot be far away. I still think this winter is going to be very painful indeed.

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Swansea's Property Post is filled each week with numerous properties availabe for sale and also to let. Quite often the letting ads will show a photo of the house with the 'for sale' sign outside. I have no doubt, and this is backed up by a local EA I know, that so many properies have been bought in Swansea by speculators hoping to cash in. Ha bloody ha ha to them!

I was talking to my Doctor this afternoon and he was commenting on the numbers of houses like this in Swansea. He made a comment about HPs trebling and quadrupling in Swansea in recent years... and became very interested in a certain website that I mentioned to him. The word spreads.

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Quite a few students I knew lived with resident landlords. Will more people start letting out a room in their house given that fuel bills and council tax are on the up? It would be the first thing i did if i was having a hard time paying the bills. Could this contribute to less students renting the btl's ??

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Quite a few students I knew lived with resident landlords. Will more people start letting out a room in their house given that fuel bills and council tax are on the up? It would be the first thing i did if i was having a hard time paying the bills. Could this contribute to less students renting the btl's ??

Yep, for many it will be the only viable route to increased income - either becuase they can't improve their salary or can't work at all.

There is and has been a perception that housing occupation rates are inelastic and that for every house anffled up to rent out there will be a frustrated non-buyer willing to rent - there are all sorts of situations which can arise that can blow this little myth into oblivoin.

One of the most obvious situaitons is where the cost of living rapidly outstrips earnings, and guess where we are at now?

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..have noticed that there are a helluva lot of boards up all around Headingley and Hyde Park (Leeds). May just be leaving them up; but I seem to remember there was an agreement thrashed out to take them down..

if they are empty stock there are loads of voids.

Now Unipol (University backed private agency) reckons in 2006-7 around 17% of student stock will be surplus!!! :ph34r:

I'dlove it if these BTL'rs lost their shirts - these people have left a nice area a ghetto, with no shops left just takeaways, schools closing the community totally in tatters. Even a slight realignment would be good.

Good site worth perusing if you have time:

http://www.healheadingley.org.uk/main.htm

Interesting notes on the cycle:

http://www.healheadingley.org.uk/epidemic/pays.htm

Fust look at the lengths BTL scum will go to :

Sharp practice around here

Examples of pressure and sharp practice, to get families out, have been:

* Offering cash purchase, forcing owner-occupiers out of the market

* The night before the sale goes through, the landlord says "We're dropping the price"

* Saying "Its for my son who's getting married"......

* Leafleting areas asking for properties, promising sales "within a week"

* Pressuring old people to leave.

* Pretending to be owner occupiers by going round with wife and children.....

* Agreeing to abide by the seller's conditions of no letting and then ...

Edited by Leeds-Bozz

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YES... almost everyone i know who rents now shares.... and people who i know who are struggling with morgages are thinking about renting out rooms... Shame about those one bedroom flats the BTL landlords are struggling to rent out....

Edited by moosetea

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..have noticed that there are a helluva lot of boards up all around Headingley and Hyde Park (Leeds). May just be leaving them up; but I seem to remember there was an agreement thrashed out to take them down..

if they are empty stock there are loads of voids.

Now Unipol (University backed private agency) reckons in 2006-7 around 17% of student stock will be surplus!!! :ph34r:

I'dlove it if these BTL'rs lost their shirts - these people have left a nice area a ghetto, with no shops left just takeaways, schools closing the community totally in tatters. Even a slight realignment would be good.

Good site worth perusing if you have time:

http://www.healheadingley.org.uk/main.htm

Interesting notes on the cycle:

http://www.healheadingley.org.uk/epidemic/pays.htm

Fust look at the lengths BTL scum will go to :

Sharp practice around here

Examples of pressure and sharp practice, to get families out, have been:

* Offering cash purchase, forcing owner-occupiers out of the market

* The night before the sale goes through, the landlord says "We're dropping the price"

* Saying "Its for my son who's getting married"......

* Leafleting areas asking for properties, promising sales "within a week"

* Pressuring old people to leave.

* Pretending to be owner occupiers by going round with wife and children.....

* Agreeing to abide by the seller's conditions of no letting and then ...

fascinating stuff. I lived there for 9 years and 361 days... 3yrs as a student and the remainder as a member of the "community". Fine as an irresponsible 20something preying on impressionable students, not so fine if you are raising a family or are elderly. Students are a vacuous and selfish mob, by and large.

I happen to think that a university education is another pup sold to us by our parents. OK in their time if you had a degree and owned your own house you were made for life... nowadays these things represent terrible value for money. If you're 16 now, you're as well getting a crappy job and staying at home. By the time you're 21 you'll already be streets ahead of your graduate peer, both financially and probably intellectually too :D and they are unlikely to catch you up in either sense (all subject to you being intelligent enough to apply yourself and also to have gone to university had you been so inclined)

the intelligent choice at the moment would be not to bother...

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I happen to think that a university education is another pup sold to us by our parents. OK in their time if you had a degree and owned your own house you were made for life... nowadays these things represent terrible value for money. If you're 16 now, you're as well getting a crappy job and staying at home. By the time you're 21 you'll already be streets ahead of your graduate peer, both financially and probably intellectually too :D and they are unlikely to catch you up in either sense (all subject to you being intelligent enough to apply yourself and also to have gone to university had you been so inclined)

the intelligent choice at the moment would be not to bother...

A bit over the top as i think a lot of degrees that are directly used in jobs are still not a bad idea. But there are too many students doing pointless crap subjects

I agree though I would try to get my kid to learn a trade at a young age. My dad was a plumber when he started working. He was on obscene money. Not being funny but he bought our house for 12.5k on his wage about 30-35 years ago. Payed it off in 15 years. It was valued at 1,250,000 a couple of years ago, and he earns a wage out of it too!!

He did do 7 days a week working all over the country, but I do 70-80 hours a week (as a student) and am about to get my first job at the age of 28 on "average wage"

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Snipped from the forum on that Leeds site.

There is no doubt that in some areas BTL infestation has been down to demand for student housing.

http://healheadingley.org.uk/bb/viewtopic....9580104e03df871

Many are saying that the "market" is saturated, which means that just about everybody who could be dragged to university from the UK has already been dagged.

Even the Vice Chancellor of Leeds University, Michael Arthur, says so. In an interview on 27.9.04 at http://reporter.leeds.ac.uk/501/s5.htm he says,

"I think our staff realise that the period of growth for home/EU students at Leeds is now essentially over"

...........

Unipol’s Owners Briefing 2005 estimates that in 2006-7, 17% of the student housing market will be surplus to requirements

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