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Tempest

Capitulation By The Hpc Bears

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Something apom said in another thread today made me think about where we are on the track to a HPC, namely:

("and don't forget.. we see more negative house price comments then we see positive and where a year ago we latched onto every "negative" in a sea of "positives"... We now see the odd "positive" in a sea of "negatives" and the small panic and stress builds in us.)"

We are so much further along than last year but I still feel there is widespread frustration at the speed (or lack of speed) of the HP decline. That is natural and understandable.

The point of this thread is to see how close some bears are to capitulating - not necessarily turning "bullish" but, rather, admitting that things are not going to get materially worse/cheaper in the short to medium term (ie "soft landing") and that they would bite the bullet and look to buy.

I see some people discussing their impending purchases here (sometimes with reasonable discounts!) but I also feel that we will only really be on the throes of the big declines when more of the HPCers evidence capitulation.

How close are you to throwing in the towel?!!

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In the property market there will always be forced buyers as well as forced sellers, whose individual circumstances force them to buy or sell, against their better judgement of future market conditions.

To a large extent, it's the balance of these forced buyers and sellers that sets market prices.

Personally, I'd rather wait another 2-3 years as I think I'll be able to step onto the property ladder at a much higher level then. However, if my personal circumstances changed in the meantime, (e.g. I started a family or faced a substantial rent hike), I'd consider buying sooner.

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I don't get it?

As Dr Bubb says "renting is the best revenge" in the current market.

The truth is I'd love to buy and be settled... but I can rent for less than a 5% yield without the hassles of owning a property (maintenance etc) and with the flexibility (I'm hopefully off to South America shortly for a while) and without any risk of negative equity etc.

Now, you could flip all of those on their head (hassles of maintenance = joys of making the place your own, flexibility = insecurity, risk of negative equity - risk of "missing the boat" etc) but I think there is no reason to change my mind at all at present.

When might I?

If my circumstances change dramatically (my wife gets pregnant etc) I'll start to think seriously about it.

Or if the "fundamentals" change dramatically - rents soar etc.

I don't see this happening and the way I see it I pay my landlord a pitiful return for taking all that geared risk. He's a nice guy like that. As soon as he stops being a nice guy like that I'll think about changing my mind.

I hope that time comes soon but if it doesn't I'll continue giving my landlord a pizz-poor return while I do much better elsewhere. I'm getting richer in real terms for the inconvenience of not owning my own place at present, my landlord is getting poorer in real terms for the inertia of retaining his BTL.

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How close are you to throwing in the towel?!!

Not close at all. What with HPI down from 20% to 2%, GDP from 3% to 1.5%, unemployment ticking up and in my local area price falls of 5% or more from the peak and oodles of stock, I am sitting tight.

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I'm not at all close to throwing in the towel, but I am getting rather frustrated at the apparent lack of (visible) falls.

For the type of houses I am looking for in my area, I have just seen stagnation for the past year.

The gf wants to move (our house etc.), but is happy to wait for 2 more years (This is the best that I could get), by which time either

i) I will buy a smaller house than I wanted

ii) Buy the house I want

iii) be in the midst of the crash, and wait a bit longer (if she lets me!)

So I/we have 2 years to wait and see.

CF

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All good stuff! Glad to hear determination is still here.

The key will be consistent YOY negative national figures from Halifax, Nationwide or ODPM: if they arrive by year end 2005 I think we will be fully set - until then its on with the struggle. Were any of those figures to show a general upturn across the regions in the next 6 months I see some possibility of towel throwing by some.

Thankfully, the coincident worldwide nature of this bubble will help this time as if the US or another market really pops "publicly" before ours the dawning realisation will hit UK too.

I see no reason to change my views (a bear and proud of it) but I did get the feeling of wavering in others' recent posts.

Edited by Tempest

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You know I think it is testament to the change in the UK property market that this question is even being asked.

Some 12/18 months ago HPCers were laughed at for even suggesting prices might fall. Today bulls are really happy that it is debatable whether prices have fallen or not.

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I STRd two years ago and now wished I hadn't.

The government is just about to provide the biggest amount of stimulus to house prices ever by letting people put them into pensions. This is going to create a huge surge in the market and we are begining to see the start of it with RICs and Rightmove indexes turning positive.

We are now looking to buy this autumn and so are a lot of people in rented. The last house I put a bid in for had three other couples in rented also offering.

The price of that house is currently £60k over the asking price and the bidding has not finished yet...

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I have no plans to buy. Renting is cheaper these days and does not expose me to falling house prices. I would review things again if prices dropped by big margin.

I have always anticipated a slow crash. Government, the media and lending institutions are working hard to sustain sentiment but it has to crack in the end. Lets be rational about this. We have rising taxes, rising interest rates (by stealth), rising debt, rising unemployment and rising costs of raw material costs.

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The government is just about to provide the biggest amount of stimulus to house prices ever by letting people put them into pensions.

You'd think that debunking this nonsense two thousand times on this site would have been enough.

We are now looking to buy this autumn and so are a lot of people in rented.

Good for you. The sooner the 'greatest fools' buy, the sooner the real crash can start.

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I STRd two years ago and now wished I hadn't.

The government is just about to provide the biggest amount of stimulus to house prices ever by letting people put them into pensions. This is going to create a huge surge in the market and we are begining to see the start of it with RICs and Rightmove indexes turning positive.

We are now looking to buy this autumn and so are a lot of people in rented. The last house I put a bid in for had three other couples in rented also offering.

The price of that house is currently £60k over the asking price and the bidding has not finished yet...

So you have lost faith with your earlier judgment. What makes you think that your latest decision is now the right one?

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How stealthy do I have to be to see this extra money?

Not very, though it helps to be a banker. There are plenty of savings accounts with interest rates above the base rate, and most of the last rate cut wasn't passed on to borrowers... even if rates are cut again, odds are the beneficiaries will be the banks, not the borrowers.

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How's that work, then? How stealthy do I have to be to see this extra money?

Peter.

You don't see the extra money. Barclaycard gets it!

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I'm past caring - if I bought a house now I'd be in debt for the rest of my life and have to work 9-5 everyday until I was 70 and worry about every twitch in the economy meaning I might not be able to afford my monthly payment.

Meanwhile, all those who bought 4 years before would be enjoying early retirement and I'd be working my nuts off to pay for the last generations pensions since they blew all there money in the credit binge.

No, not even close to throwing in the towel

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Something apom said in another thread today made me think about where we are on the track to a HPC, namely:

("and don't forget.. we see more negative house price comments then we see positive and where a year ago we latched onto every "negative" in a sea of "positives"... We now see the odd "positive" in a sea of "negatives" and the small panic and stress builds in us.)"

We are so much further along than last year but I still feel there is widespread frustration at the speed (or lack of speed) of the HP decline. That is natural and understandable.

The point of this thread is to see how close some bears are to capitulating - not necessarily turning "bullish" but, rather, admitting that things are not going to get materially worse/cheaper in the short to medium term (ie "soft landing") and that they would bite the bullet and look to buy.

I see some people discussing their impending purchases here (sometimes with reasonable discounts!) but I also feel that we will only really be on the throes of the big declines when more of the HPCers evidence capitulation.

How close are you to throwing in the towel?!!

:rolleyes: Yawn, havent you heard... only strudel stiring monkeys :lol: and forced buyers (unfortunately RFD :( ) are only going to capitulate.

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How close are you to throwing in the towel?!!

Not close at all. Predict this will be a long drawn out affair, last time negative HPI lasted 5-6 years and expect the same this time as a minimum. Reckon US housing market is about 12 months behind UK, signs are there that the US bubble is coming to an end, they've got inflation running at 4.9% (?). The US lead us into a worldwide recession over the next few years. We all like to forget that we've got to compete with countries where earnings are 1/100th what they are here and in the West so we can't expect our salaries to catch up. Everytime our salaries increase we are becoming even less competitive with the east.

Renting is so much smarter.

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I STRd two years ago and now wished I hadn't.

The government is just about to provide the biggest amount of stimulus to house prices ever by letting people put them into pensions. This is going to create a huge surge in the market and we are begining to see the start of it with RICs and Rightmove indexes turning positive.

We are now looking to buy this autumn and so are a lot of people in rented. The last house I put a bid in for had three other couples in rented also offering.

The price of that house is currently £60k over the asking price and the bidding has not finished yet...

baldwin%20knob.jpgJockey-Chad_Hoverson.jpg

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I'm not spooked yet. A month ago, we were all celebrating the 3rd rightmove fall in a row, and the "House Price Slump" headline on the front of the Express...a month is a long time in HPC!

Sentiment hasn't changed as fast as most of us had hoped. But the fundamental problem is still there - FTBs cannot afford to buy property, and that won't change until there is a major correction, or a decade of stagnation.

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I am also a FTB thinking about entering the market. I have set myself a few deadlines in the past to begin looking at property but these have been and gone I am currently looking at renting a flat in an area closer to where I work. Not particuarly looking forward to renting (becauses of new landlord etc) but I am taking a longer timeframe and have an aversion to paying way over the odds for second class products. I am planning a minimum of 6 more months renting and then taking a decision based on where I see the market going at that time.

My own view is that I expect prices to go down but I try not to obsess about it because, due in no small part to this site, I am currently engaged in a process of deepening my knowledge of other forms of investments. I have become steadily more bearish on house prices over the last 6 months and looking at the global economy and the overvalued UK housing market I honestly am starting to wonder about some of these 'experts' and their opinions about the state of the housing market. The 'experts' view all seems to come down to their reading of the 'fundamentals' of the market, (low IRs, high levels of enemployment etc). Surely these people are aware of how world events could very quickly impact on their rosy view about the fundamentals and so I can only conclude that they do not take them into consideration because of their lack of ability to do so. In which case I feel it is possible that a lot of people may find themselves in a very difficult position on the advice of these people. Many economists, who one would assume do have an understanding of the issues involved, are firmly convinced that a signficant correction in prices will take place not just in this county but in many others to.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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