The Good Old Days Of The N.i. Thread.

[Belfast Boy]

I was just wondering when we started talking about 50% house price falls in the old Northern Ireland thread.

This is the first post where I mention it - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=37941&view=findpost&p=730207 14th August 2007.

I said prices would drop by 50% in the next 3 years.

Though it was mentioned before that.

For the record, I was wrong. It took 4 years

Here's some more posts around that time...

JoeDevola - "50% drops are needed to bring houses in NI anywhere near affordable levels. Although I do find it hard to believe that house prices will ever fall 50% "

tara747 - "Why? If they can double in value, they can halve in value."

Sour Mash - "Of course they can - they rose massively in a speculative bubble. Once the speculation stops they'll be forced back into line with what is 'affordable' to the market of people actually looking to buy a house to live in."

Belfast Boy - "Even I find it hard to believe. However, my research into housing bubbles leads me think that those percentage drops are correct."

That old thread is fun to read sometimes.

[leicestersq]

I was just wondering when we started talking about 50% house price falls in the old Northern Ireland thread.

This is the first post where I mention it - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=37941&view=findpost&p=730207 14th August 2007.

Though it was mentioned before that.

For the record, I was wrong. It took 4 years

Here's some more posts around that time...

JoeDevola - "50% drops are needed to bring houses in NI anywhere near affordable levels. Although I do find it hard to believe that house prices will ever fall 50% "

tara747 - "Why? If they can double in value, they can halve in value."

Sour Mash - "Of course they can - they rose massively in a speculative bubble. Once the speculation stops they'll be forced back into line with what is 'affordable' to the market of people actually looking to buy a house to live in."

Belfast Boy - "Even I find it hard to believe. However, my research into housing bubbles leads me think that those percentage drops are correct."

That old thread is fun to read sometimes.

Those who called similar drops on mainland Britain have been spectacularly wrong. Maybe those in the north of the UK might have seen some drops, down south though, nary a price weakness to be seen.

[57percent]

Haven't dipped into the NI thread / forum since it moved from the main page.

Have many of you bought now, or still waiting on or expecting further falls?

Being from London .... I'm now fed up.

[PopGun]

When the war seems lost, it's always good to reminisce on those few but great victories. Who says nostalgia is an indulgence?!

[Belfast Boy]

Haven't dipped into the NI thread / forum since it moved from the main page.

Have many of you bought now, or still waiting on or expecting further falls?

Being from London .... I'm now fed up.

Several of the regular posters have now bought. Most have saved themselves 'a wee fortune!' Or bought a much nicer house than they would have been able to afford in 2007.

Prices are still high relative to incomes. Most people are still expecting further drops.

I'm not surprised you are fed up. It is difficult to understand why mainland prices are still so high.

[Belfast Boy]

I'm still holding out for value in the middle range market - and I'm not seeing it yet. Low end houses and top end houses are falling but the middle is stubborn with the vendors who need to get 2007 prices to be solvent.

Hopefully the recent introduction of rates on empty properties will help get things moving.

[crashmonitor]

Those who called similar drops on mainland Britain have been spectacularly wrong. Maybe those in the north of the UK might have seen some drops, down south though, nary a price weakness to be seen.

I don't agree with the spectacularly wrong bit. In fact during the tail end of the boom in 2007, when Haliwide still had an annualised rate of 10%, most of us had quite conservative estimates and I think they were born out of wishful thinking too. At that time, Financial Planner and Realist Bear were the most bearish at circa -40% real. My own estimate was for -37.5% real, pre-crash. As we are now at -30% real, it looks like even the most bearish predictions pre-crash will come true. Even a bit of flat-lining until 2015 might get us to the then uber Bear's predictions..

Trouble is, during the -17% meltdown of 2008, many HPCers revised their initial estimates upward, FP may have been one of those and of course the jury is still out. I have always stuck with ny initial prediction from 2006 of -37.5% real.

Edited February 24, 2012 by crashmonitor

[Sour Mash]

Hopefully the recent introduction of rates on empty properties will help get things moving.

The only thing that will really knock NI prices down some more is higher interest rates.

Currently, lots of people (especially landlords) who are horrendously over-borrowed are holding on to 'their' property courtesy of all time low base rates.

Much of the excess pricing in NI has been stripped out by the collapse of silly amounts of mortgage availability resulting in >50% falls on some properties but until we see higher interest rates I can't see much more downward movement across the market generally.

[leicestersq]

I don't agree with the spectacularly wrong bit. In fact during the tail end of the boom in 2007, when Haliwide still had an annualised rate of 10%, most of us had quite conservative estimates and I think they were born out of wishful thinking too. At that time, Financial Planner and Realist Bear were the most bearish at circa -40% real. My own estimate was for -37.5% real, pre-crash. As we are now at -30% real, it looks like even the most bearish predictions pre-crash will come true. Even a bit of flat-lining until 2015 might get us to the then uber Bear's predictions..

Trouble is, during the -17% meltdown of 2008, many HPCers revised their initial estimates upward, FP may have been one of those and of course the jury is still out. I have always stuck with ny initial prediction from 2006 of -37.5% real.

-30% real is at odds with the reality I see. I guess your are talking about wrt to general prices rather than the general wage level, and definitely not wrt the after tax wage level? Even then, I cannot see prices having dropped in any meaningful way.

[manchester50]

I'm still holding out for value in the middle range market - and I'm not seeing it yet. Low end houses and top end houses are falling but the middle is stubborn with the vendors who need to get 2007 prices to be solvent.

Exactly the same in the areas of NW England I'm looking at - it's the middle that's far more stubborn that the top or bottom - many looking for 2007/2007+ and just sitting on Rightmove for months/years.

[manchester50]

-30% real is at odds with the reality I see. I guess your are talking about wrt to general prices rather than the general wage level, and definitely not wrt the after tax wage level? Even then, I cannot see prices having dropped in any meaningful way.

That's the problem with 'real' - people use it differently. Biggest drops are if your 'real' is pricing in other currencies and you've watched the pound drop against you. My 'real' is house prices relative to net earnings , allowing for the impact of inflation on the things I buy, and therefore I've not seen massive drops.

Edited February 24, 2012 by manchester50

[Bloo Loo]

-30% real is at odds with the reality I see. I guess your are talking about wrt to general prices rather than the general wage level, and definitely not wrt the after tax wage level? Even then, I cannot see prices having dropped in any meaningful way.

all over is it?

£40,000 drop not meaningful?

My place has gone from £400 to £320 guestimate, and that was the councils calculations as I applied for a rates rebate.

I guess £80,000 is a mere bagatelle.

[leicestersq]

all over is it?

£40,000 drop not meaningful?

My place has gone from £400 to £320 guestimate, and that was the councils calculations as I applied for a rates rebate.

I guess £80,000 is a mere bagatelle.

I guess your place isn't in the south east? I guess where we live changes our perception.

I was trying to talk about the market generally of course, but as you point out, some prices are quite a ways down.

[Bloo Loo]

I guess your place isn't in the south east? I guess where we live changes our perception.

I was trying to talk about the market generally of course, but as you point out, some prices are quite a ways down.

Colchester.

Just glanced at the latest Building costs report in an EA I was working intoday...Essex...new build prices are 4% down from this time last year..about the same throughout the UK...London was up of course, but it was 1%.

These are averages, and newbuilds have all the support of the government schemes, tame lenders ( many high street ones wont touch them) and price obfuscation.

4% of anyones £200K "pad" is £8K...on average.

[Sour Mash]

I guess your place isn't in the south east? I guess where we live changes our perception.

I was trying to talk about the market generally of course, but as you point out, some prices are quite a ways down.

Thing is that many here talk as if London/SE is the entirety of the UK housing market.

Of course, it's a huge chunk of the overall market by value but the facts are that for many parts of the UK not being drenched by the QE fountain or subject to mass immigration/foreign investment, there has been a significant nominal fall in prices.

Take into account the value of the pound against other major currencies or the house price in oz Gold and just about everywhere has seem some sort of 'real' fall even London.

[headmelter]

An inevitable rise in IR's should serve the coupe de grace A touch of wage inflation afterwards would be the icing on the cake.....

[Belfast Boy]

An inevitable rise in IR's should serve the coupe de grace A touch of wage inflation afterwards would be the icing on the cake.....

Hi headmelter,

The problem is - all the long-dated gilts and quantitative easing will allow the 'can' to be kicked down the road for many years to come. I don't see interest rates rising until the UK can no longer extend-and-pretend. Look how long it has taken Greece to reach that moment. I know that the UK is potentially in worse shape, with regard to debt, than most countries. But I believe that the UK and America are also at the center of the whole financial/credit/debt based system. Many other counties will be sacraficed before the UK has it's Greek moment.

[headmelter]

Hi headmelter,

The problem is - all the long-dated gilts and quantitative easing will allow the 'can' to be kicked down the road for many years to come. I don't see interest rates rising until the UK can no longer extend-and-pretend. Look how long it has taken Greece to reach that moment. I know that the UK is potentially in worse shape, with regard to debt, than most countries. But I believe that the UK and America are also at the center of the whole financial/credit/debt based system. Many other counties will be sacraficed before the UK has it's Greek moment.

Hi BB, sobering thoughts......... I should have put a default or two on my wish list....