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House Prices Set To Rise: Surveyors

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http://icsurreyonline.icnetwork.co.uk/0100...-name_page.html

Chartered surveyors are predicting house prices will rise for the first time in 18 months, according to new figures.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said increasing demand from potential buyers and the possibility of further interest rate cuts had led surveyors to predict house prices would increase marginally by the end of the year.

RICS housing spokesperson Ian Perry said: "While sellers asking for unrealistic prices are still struggling to find potential buyers, they are beginning to feel more confident as fears of a sharp fall in house prices have largely dissipated."

:angry: Well you've got to hand it to them for trying :angry:

Personally I don’t doubt prices are still going to fall a long way yet!

but the annoying thing is, potential sellers are holding out from dropping thier prices with news like this!

Must be a softener for some bad news this week?

'DrBubb

Spin mascarading as news.

There is already a thread on this...'

Oops...:rolleyes:

Edited by burnt before

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Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates

Land Registry Figures are seen as the most accurate figures Q3 out Nov 8.

The first quarter of 2005 saw a FALL OF 35% over the same period in 2004

and the second quarter of this year saw a FALL OF 27.7% including the

spring bounce. :D

The reason I find the Halifax and the RICS survey so frustrating is

because I know what's hapening on the ground and prices in South London

are definitely falling and are down at least 10% since Christmas. The reason

I know this for sure is the fact that I've kept the last 50 copies of the weekly

property supplement from the local newspaper which is by far the best way

to keep track of what's really happening. I advise people to do the same.

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In my opinion the RICs surveyors tell it as they see it.

One of the few surveys on HPI that I'd put any faith in.

All markets have false dawns just because this market is different to the stock or gold markets does not make it any different. It is however a false dawn. Prices may rise for a month or two but all the momentum is downhill at the moment.

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Land Registry Figures are seen as the most accurate figures Q3 out Nov 8.

The first quarter of 2005 saw a FALL OF 35% over the same period in 2004

and the second quarter of this year saw a FALL OF 27.7% including the

spring bounce. :D

The reason I find the Halifax and the RICS survey so frustrating is

because I know what's hapening on the ground and prices in South London

are definitely falling and are down at least 10% since Christmas. The reason

I know this for sure is the fact that I've kept the last 50 copies of the weekly

property supplement from the local newspaper which is by far the best way

to keep track of what's really happening. I advise people to do the same.

Local papers only show asking prices for those whjo advertise in it - hardly the best way to keep track of actual selling prices.

It also takes some shine off a lot of the great debate on this forum that whenever a report comes out saying that prices are down the bears whoop with joy. When a report says the opposite, the report is trashed. And before you ask, I'm a STR who got out of the market in August 2004 so I'm not a bull.

just because this market is different to the stock or gold markets does not make it any different.

eh? :lol:

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Guest Riser

Interesting point about which report is the most accurate.

If we use the Land Resistry data as a baseline who's reports have best represented the market to date or is the data so mixed up with regional variations and averaging that we can't make a comparison ?

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In my opinion the RICs surveyors tell it as they see it.

One of the few surveys on HPI that I'd put any faith in.

How wonderfully naive you are!

Many surveyors are self employed. Let's think about how they make money .... oh yes, they make it by undertaking surveys for people and lenders. In a falling/static market they don't earn as much money, in a booming market they rake it in.

Now, do they have a vested interest in attempting to massage the market?

Yes the ROYAL INSTITUTION of CHARTERED SURVEYORS - sounds grand doesn't it? It's a TRADE ASSOCIATION designed to protect the livings of its members. Just like Solicitors and Doctors - they don't want any old Tom, Dick or Harry muscling in on their nice little earner.

Personally, I'd take a lot more notice of what an experienced builder told me than a surveyor. Every survey I have seen is simply an inventory.

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Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates

Local papers only show asking prices for those whjo advertise in it - hardly the best way to keep track of actual selling prices.

So if prices are down 10%[which they are] and you then negotiate another

5-8% off, prices could actually be down about 16% on average. :rolleyes:

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How wonderfully naive you are!

Many surveyors are self employed. Let's think about how they make money .... oh yes, they make it by undertaking surveys for people and lenders. In a falling/static market they don't earn as much money, in a booming market they rake it in.

Now, do they have a vested interest in attempting to massage the market?

Yes the ROYAL INSTITUTION of CHARTERED SURVEYORS - sounds grand doesn't it? It's a TRADE ASSOCIATION designed to protect the livings of its members. Just like Solicitors and Doctors - they don't want any old Tom, Dick or Harry muscling in on their nice little earner.

Personally, I'd take a lot more notice of what an experienced builder told me than a surveyor. Every survey I have seen is simply an inventory.

The survey is however a decent survey. Think about the question. It says what external pressure (supply, demand, bank preferences) are you under at the moment when valuing houses.

When put that way it says that this is a fools bounce designed to allow a few people to sell at high prices to escape with banks not being that fussy other lending criteria. It confirms what I think the Banks see as the problem, the economy as a whole is ok (yeah, right) but individual people have problems. The solution is to allow those to escape while others are still willing to take their place.

Every crash has times when prices reverse slightly as banks try and protect themselves. Don't worry about it.

Finally, the test to see how the market is, is how long does a house sit on the market. In the boom houses where we lived sold in days. Now its months (if at all) and I think that says everything you need to know.

Edited by eek

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relax

all i see in my local papers up here in the north west is ...

...REDUCED...

....NEW PRICE...

...REDUCED....

so prices are going down. its just desperate spin from the VI's. besides, prices cant go any higher cos folks have no money !!!!

so just relax, sit back, and watch the crash unfold

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If you look at the actual survey (rather than the journos' take on it) it says:

House price falls abate - as ONLY a net 21% saw prices lower.

Unsold property on the market has RISEN.

And surveyors are more confident.

RICS survey

So, we KNOW surveyors as a whole say house prices ARE still falling and that the oversupply has INCREASED.

Then the surveyors THINK prices will rise over the next three months.

Predicting what house prices will do in the next three months is difficult for anybody and I think I mentioned on previous threads about the RICS survey that the surveyors are actually really not very good at this forecasting.

It is a little hard to see on the graphs but the dotted line shows the surveyors' predictions for the next three months while the full line shows the reality three months on. If they were good forecasters of three-month price movements then the dotted line three months ago should match the black line now.

In London for example (my area, so my focus) surveyors have been predicting prices rises over the following three months for something like six months now... but it hasn't happened (they say prices are currently flat in London - a vast improvement).

So I don't think people should get TOO excited about this. The RESULTS are bearish, the surveyors' OPINIONS are bullish. These opinions MAY prove correct or then again they may prove to be wrong.

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How wonderfully naive you are!

However I am prepared to alter my views in the face of changing evidence.

Also, I think if you actually bother to read the report you'll see that this is the first time in 18 months that, unlike the Halifax or Nationwide, the RICs surveyors have forecast any sort of upturn, mild though this forecast is.

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It was very interesting to see what RICS said during the last crash.... Take a look matey!!! Why would they be right this time?

Oh sorry.... forgot - it's different this time :lol::lol::lol:

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It was very interesting to see what RICS said during the last crash.... Take a look matey!!! Why would they be right this time?

Oh sorry.... forgot - it's different this time :lol::lol::lol:

And they said what? I presume you have that information and can provide either a link or some form of proof? :lol::lol::lol:

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Oh dear! Touchy touchy....

An informative list of headlines during the previous crash is in the FAQs sections of this site... "What the papers said during the previous crash...." has been discussed (with links) many times before. I kindly suggest perform a search of the threads - the info is there all you have to do is look for it and then read it.

If you need help with either I'm sure someone wil gladly volunteer.

:P

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No, 'fraid not - can't see any reference to a RICs report - maybe you could point to some?

Oh dear! Touchy touchy....

An informative list of headlines during the previous crash is in the FAQs sections of this site... "What the papers said during the previous crash...." has been discussed (with links) many times before. I kindly suggest perform a search of the threads - the info is there all you have to do is look for it and then read it.

If you need help with either I'm sure someone wil gladly volunteer.

:P

As you're the one who brought this up I think you should point to the relevant information!

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it is interesting how the media somehow feels the need for persistent reassurance. surely if a house price crash does 'look so remote' then why keep up the lords work so? after all, no-one on tv or in the ea offices are saying otherwise to joe public.

they are digging their own grave (there is no smoke without fire)

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No, 'fraid not - can't see any reference to a RICs report - maybe you could point to some?

As you're the one who brought this up I think you should point to the relevant information!

Plenty of references there to RICS and I advised you to do a search and read the relevant threads... so I did point you to the relevant information. Why are you reluctant to do this? I am not going to type the whole lot out again :P

But I do agree with you - I think you should buy a house... Actually buy 6... I think you would make a lovely landlord... While you're at it, you could qualify as a surveyor, revalue your portfolio and then MEW to buy even more houses!!!

Go for it! You don't want to miss the boat... :lol::P

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Plenty of references there to RICS and I advised you to do a search and read the relevant threads... so I did point you to the relevant information. Why are you reluctant to do this? I am not going to type the whole lot out again :P

I've done a search for 'RIC' in three of the years - not one hit which refers to RICs !!

By the way you don't have to type out any information just use cut'n paste ( instructions are here )http://members.aol.com/jaynecg/private/copy.html

And now you've learnt this new skill I shall wait with patience for at least one example and hopefully even more.

Edited by ILBB

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Sorry - I thought we'd moved on from this...???

Buy buy buy! Property is going up - RICS say so so it must be true... But then we all know that property always goes up UP UP and awaaaaayyyyyyyyy.

Off you go then. :rolleyes:

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relax

all i see in my local papers up here in the north west is ...

...REDUCED...

....NEW PRICE...

...REDUCED....

so prices are going down. its just desperate spin from the VI's. besides, prices cant go any higher cos folks have no money !!!!

so just relax, sit back, and watch the crash unfold

Same thing in the Evesham area--growing numbers of FOR SALE signs with no SOLD signs except for those with STC in small print. EAs empty on Saturday morning. Most property details have "new price" on them. No indication of any bounce. RICS are fairly reliable--"indicators" of an upswing in the market may just be people like me who call into EAs to ask if they have any repossession lists :lol:

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I find it particularly amusing that The FT today has seen fit to downgrade RICS to a bunch of estate agents:

Headline

House price rise forecast in survey of estate agents

Intro

Estate agents are predicting a rise in house prices for the first time in 18 months, according to a survey to be published today.

It carries on in this vein.

And, interestingly, it says the "ratio of sales to stock" (how much property is actually shifting) has fallen back to below 30% (three out of ten properties shifting), which it states as "well below the long-run average of 37.1%".

This rather flies in the face of those who say sales are picking up notably.

Edited by London-loser

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When I heard about the RICS report on the news I was left with the impression that the RICS think that prices will rise IF interest rates fall. Sounds like they are clutching at straws?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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