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marmiteman

I Don't Believe You - Controversial One!

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Right, I'm going to be controversial.

I've been following this site for about a year. I agree with everyone here, in that I think houses are overpriced. I am working but not a housebuyer, as I am still paying off my student debt. I will only think about buying a flat when I've paid off my debts. At the moment, I rent, and it's affordable.

My first problem is this: you lot seem to have been predicting the house price crash for YEARS. Since at least 2001, you have been predicting a ********** that will spark the end of life as we know for the economy. But has it happened? Now prices are rising again in London, buoyed up by the Olympics, and the drop seems long in coming in the provinces.

I think that there is too much political will and money invested in the housing market. New Labour will NEVER allow house prices to crash, as it will be the end of their domination of the political scene. The government will do anything to keep prices rising. This was obvious in the last election, where London was plastered with billboards bearing the slogan 'The Tories gave us Negative Equity.'

My second issue concerns the attitudes of people on this forum: the myth of easy credit when house prices eventually do crash. Lots of people on this forum assume that if/when house prices crash, they will be able to snap up a bargain. But unless you have the full purchase price in cash, I don't think you will be able to get credit to purchase the house. When a general crash occurs, the last thing the banks want is more debt: they will be calling in their security. So unless people on this forum have a large amount of cash saved, they will not be able to buy that house when the time comes.

I'm glad I've got that off my chest. What does everyone else think?

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Right, I'm going to be controversial.

I've been following this site for about a year. I agree with everyone here, in that I think houses are overpriced. I am working but not a housebuyer, as I am still paying off my student debt. I will only think about buying a flat when I've paid off my debts. At the moment, I rent, and it's affordable.

My first problem is this: you lot seem to have been predicting the house price crash for YEARS. Since at least 2001, you have been predicting a ********** that will spark the end of life as we know for the economy. But has it happened? Now prices are rising again in London, buoyed up by the Olympics, and the drop seems long in coming in the provinces.

I think that there is too much political will and money invested in the housing market. New Labour will NEVER allow house prices to crash, as it will be the end of their domination of the political scene. The government will do anything to keep prices rising. This was obvious in the last election, where London was plastered with billboards bearing the slogan 'The Tories gave us Negative Equity.'

My second issue concerns the attitudes of people on this forum: the myth of easy credit when house prices eventually do crash. Lots of people on this forum assume that if/when house prices crash, they will be able to snap up a bargain. But unless you have the full purchase price in cash, I don't think you will be able to get credit to purchase the house. When a general crash occurs, the last thing the banks want is more debt: they will be calling in their security. So unless people on this forum have a large amount of cash saved, they will not be able to buy that house when the time comes.

I'm glad I've got that off my chest. What does everyone else think?

AWOOGA AWOOGA !

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The crash would have happened sooner if 9/11 hadn't happened and the FED cut their rates along with the BoE.

As for not getting a mortgage, most of us will have big deposits to put down, possibly more than 50% - most banks will not worry about us in terms of defaulting.

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Right, I'm going to be controversial.

I've been following this site for about a year. I agree with everyone here, in that I think houses are overpriced. I am working but not a housebuyer, as I am still paying off my student debt. I will only think about buying a flat when I've paid off my debts. At the moment, I rent, and it's affordable.

My first problem is this: you lot seem to have been predicting the house price crash for YEARS. Since at least 2001, you have been predicting a ********** that will spark the end of life as we know for the economy. But has it happened? Now prices are rising again in London, buoyed up by the Olympics, and the drop seems long in coming in the provinces.

I think that there is too much political will and money invested in the housing market. New Labour will NEVER allow house prices to crash, as it will be the end of their domination of the political scene. The government will do anything to keep prices rising. This was obvious in the last election, where London was plastered with billboards bearing the slogan 'The Tories gave us Negative Equity.'

My second issue concerns the attitudes of people on this forum: the myth of easy credit when house prices eventually do crash. Lots of people on this forum assume that if/when house prices crash, they will be able to snap up a bargain. But unless you have the full purchase price in cash, I don't think you will be able to get credit to purchase the house. When a general crash occurs, the last thing the banks want is more debt: they will be calling in their security. So unless people on this forum have a large amount of cash saved, they will not be able to buy that house when the time comes.

I'm glad I've got that off my chest. What does everyone else think?

Oh shit I never thought of that. I had better pop out tomorrow and snap up a house because when it all goes tits up I wont be able to secure a sensible mortgage.

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Well,

That's not vry controversial.

I agree that the HPC is long overdue.

Any time HPI goes above the 3.5 salray multiple, a crash is likely.

Look at the stats for the last few cycles - the peak vaires in height,

but there is always a crash afterwards

Governement has done all it can to fuel the boom way beyond

normal sustainability.

Secondly, most people here do have a fair bit of cash.

The lesson of easy credit should be that any sane person wishing

to buy a house should have a big deposit (preferably 100%) and

a small mortgage (preferably 0%) to avoid any difficulties.

ABB

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you lot seem to have been predicting the house price crash for YEARS. Since at least 2001

Err, HPC has only been online since late 2003. If you can't get basic facts right, is there any point listening or responding to what you have to say (which is very unoriginal anyway)?

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/about-us.php

HousePriceCrash.co.uk was born on 26th October 2003.
Edited by IPOD

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
My first problem is this: you lot seem to have been predicting the house price crash for YEARS. Since at least 2001, you have been predicting a ********** that will spark the end of life as we know for the economy. But has it happened? Now prices are rising again in London, buoyed up by the Olympics, and the drop seems long in coming in the provinces.

HPC.co.uk`s inception was October 2003.

Evidently you do not read the links on many of the posts showing a number of economists, pundits, and academics who have been saying the same. The Reserve Bank of Australia equivalent to our MPC have issued a serious warning of a Global Meltdown.

And BTW have you read the newspapers the past few weeks, and did you not listen to Humphrys interview with Gordon Brown, and are you aware of the massive personal debt the UK is in.

Pray tell me how HPI can continue going up when a large proportion of the populace is maxed out with debt.

Recession is unavoidable and unemployment goes up.

Have you live through a recession in a past life?

Finally do you know what a Potemkin Economy is?

Answers on a postcard please. :blink:

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Right, I'm going to be controversial.

I've been following this site for about a year. I agree with everyone here, in that I think houses are overpriced. I am working but not a housebuyer, as I am still paying off my student debt. I will only think about buying a flat when I've paid off my debts. At the moment, I rent, and it's affordable.

My first problem is this: you lot seem to have been predicting the house price crash for YEARS. Since at least 2001, you have been predicting a ********** that will spark the end of life as we know for the economy. But has it happened? Now prices are rising again in London, buoyed up by the Olympics, and the drop seems long in coming in the provinces.

...

I'm glad I've got that off my chest. What does everyone else think?

Can't comment on the rest of your post as I have no evidence for or against.

Prices in London are not rising in all parts of London. Places have sold for considerably less than asking. Examples- 675K --> 512K (4-storey Victorian terrace), 375K --> 325K (2-bedroom maisonette with garden). They were overpriced to begin with and probably still overpriced, but this wouldn't have happened last year. Both places were up for sale since January, only sold in August. One is now to let. Asking prices seen on Rightmove, sale prices on nethouseprices.

Comparable places sold in weeks the same time last year- proper sales that went through as evidenced by movers coming.

This is in London N7. A one-bed flat a road down has also had its sale fall through three times (board changes from for sale -> sold -> for sale -> etc). Now listed with multiple agents.

Things don't look so good here.

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Mr Marmite Man

I think before you generalise ..... "I don't think you will be able to get credit to purchase the house" you ought to check who you are talking to!! Lots of old rich people I think!! I think the worst thats going to happen to many on here is they will have to settle for 3 beds instead of 4 if the crash never happens!!

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I agree with marmiteman. I sold my house in 2001 and have been keeping an eye on the market since. I'm almost desparate for a crash but cannot see it happening. To get to this state we have to have high interest rates and high unemployment. There is very little sign of interest rates rising by anything other than an insignificant amount in the short to medium term. More likely are cuts; the only possible consolation are the almost inevitable tax rises and increased costs of living which migh have a slight affect.

I don't know where everyone is working now as this country doesn't seem to make anything anymore. However, despite the odd few reports of job losses here and there I can't see where across the board cuts are going to happen. Even then, jobs appear relatively easy to come by.

The overall mood of the country appears to be comfortable, and I do not mean the media hyped mood but how I perceive real people to be feeling. As a result confidence (and associated greed) will remain in the housing market. That's why Nu-Labour retain their shallow popularity. People won't vote for change when they feel well-off/comfortable.

House prices have been rising at an alarming rate in this area (Fylde coast) for the last four years. Every time I say that they can't go higher, they do. I keep hoping that the lack of FTB's due to BTL's taking all the lower end housing will have an affect, but still it doesn't. The demand for housing is too high.

One day a crash might happen, but probably not until I've bought! Sorry to sound so negative. :(

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Mr Marmite Man

I think before you generalise ..... "I don't think you will be able to get credit to purchase the house" you ought to check who you are talking to!! Lots of old rich people I think!! I think the worst thats going to happen to many on here is they will have to settle for 3 beds instead of 4 if the crash never happens!!

Exactly.

Marmiteman would be advised to look at this:

HPC Member FTB Deposits

NDL

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Guest The Dude

I agree with marmiteman. I sold my house in 2001 and have been keeping an eye on the market since. I'm almost desparate for a crash but cannot see it happening. To get to this state we have to have high interest rates and high unemployment. There is very little sign of interest rates rising by anything other than an insignificant amount in the short to medium term. More likely are cuts; the only possible consolation are the almost inevitable tax rises and increased costs of living which migh have a slight affect.

I don't know where everyone is working now as this country doesn't seem to make anything anymore. However, despite the odd few reports of job losses here and there I can't see where across the board cuts are going to happen. Even then, jobs appear relatively easy to come by.

The overall mood of the country appears to be comfortable, and I do not mean the media hyped mood but how I perceive real people to be feeling. As a result confidence (and associated greed) will remain in the housing market. That's why Nu-Labour retain their shallow popularity. People won't vote for change when they feel well-off/comfortable.

House prices have been rising at an alarming rate in this area (Fylde coast) for the last four years. Every time I say that they can't go higher, they do. I keep hoping that the lack of FTB's due to BTL's taking all the lower end housing will have an affect, but still it doesn't. The demand for housing is too high.

One day a crash might happen, but probably not until I've bought! Sorry to sound so negative. :(

You seem to forget that everyone is up to their eyeballs in debt.....where is the new money coming from? Wage increases? or do you think that money grows on trees.....Please, DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE....

Edited by The Dude

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I agree with marmiteman. I sold my house in 2001 and have been keeping an eye on the market since. I'm almost desparate for a crash but cannot see it happening. To get to this state we have to have high interest rates and high unemployment. There is very little sign of interest rates rising by anything other than an insignificant amount in the short to medium term. More likely are cuts; the only possible consolation are the almost inevitable tax rises and increased costs of living which migh have a slight affect.

I don't know where everyone is working now as this country doesn't seem to make anything anymore. However, despite the odd few reports of job losses here and there I can't see where across the board cuts are going to happen. Even then, jobs appear relatively easy to come by.

The overall mood of the country appears to be comfortable, and I do not mean the media hyped mood but how I perceive real people to be feeling. As a result confidence (and associated greed) will remain in the housing market. That's why Nu-Labour retain their shallow popularity. People won't vote for change when they feel well-off/comfortable.

House prices have been rising at an alarming rate in this area (Fylde coast) for the last four years. Every time I say that they can't go higher, they do. I keep hoping that the lack of FTB's due to BTL's taking all the lower end housing will have an affect, but still it doesn't. The demand for housing is too high.

One day a crash might happen, but probably not until I've bought! Sorry to sound so negative. :(

Because of the levels of debt interest rates don't need to rise by much at all. Last time interest rates were higher to start with, which limited peoples ability to borrow. And the average house price at the last crash was only around the £67K mark - thats a far cry from todays £180k+

Add MEWs, credit cards, etc to the bonfire & a small change (c.1%?) will bring it all crashing down, & there isnt a thing new labour or anyone else can do to stop it.

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Guest horace

>> The Dude

Quote

`You seem to forget that everyone is up to their eyeballs in debt.....where is the new money coming from? Wage increases? or do you think that money grows on trees.....Please, DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE....`

Unquote

Is that financial advice?

Please speak.

horace.

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Welcome aboard, Marmite. We need some sensible bulls here :)

Doesn't mean I agree with you of course.

One good definition of a bubble would be that sensible analysis shows that something is overpriced... and it continues going up... and up... and up...

In my (very expensive) area, dual earning couples were being pushed out of the town by house prices before 2001.

Present prices are sustainable as long as we maintain record lows of both unemployment and interest rates.

All economies move in cycles... Now, I haven't a clue whether we're going to enter a recession in the next 12 months, but sooner or later we will do.

And then, if you're mortgaged to the hilt, it's going to hurt. If you're sitting on a nice big pile of savings, banks will be very keen to lend a sensible amount of money to you, just as they were in the early 90s.

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>> The Dude

Quote

`You seem to forget that everyone is up to their eyeballs in debt.....where is the new money coming from? Wage increases? or do you think that money grows on trees.....Please, DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE....`

Unquote

Is that financial advice?

Please speak.

horace.

Does your mammy know you're no in your bed yet horace? Tut tut.

Edited by bobdabuilder

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I really do want to believe that there are going to be problems. However, where I work (in a mixed economy of civil servants and private sector staff) I know of no-one who is who is up to their eyes in debt. Some are not well paid and are therefore more careful at the moment but all the homeowners are, for now at least, comforted by the fact that their houses are worth vastly more than they paid for them. Even with a crash of 50% most would not lose as they bought more than 5 years ago.

There are many predictions of gloom and doom, both on this site and in the media. Until something starts to happen it's difficult to believe which way things are going to go. I would certainly not advise anyone to buy at the moment. I had this view 2 to 3 years ago though, how wrong hindsight has shown me to be. However, property is still selling and prices in this area at least are still rising. There are signs of reduction but only from ridiculously overpriced down to considerably overpriced. I have no idea of the finances of the buyers but if they have managed to sell down south and moved 'oop north' then they won't have a problem.

The hype works both ways as well, read the Daily Mail for example and you would think that Chicken Licken was the main reporter sometimes (apologies for those who weren't treated to such wonderous tales at primary school - seems a bit rubbish now but you'll get the idea).

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Guest The Dude

I really do want to believe that there are going to be problems. However, where I work (in a mixed economy of civil servants and private sector staff) I know of no-one who is who is up to their eyes in debt. Some are not well paid and are therefore more careful at the moment but all the homeowners are, for now at least, comforted by the fact that their houses are worth vastly more than they paid for them. Even with a crash of 50% most would not lose as they bought more than 5 years ago.

There are many predictions of gloom and doom, both on this site and in the media. Until something starts to happen it's difficult to believe which way things are going to go. I would certainly not advise anyone to buy at the moment. I had this view 2 to 3 years ago though, how wrong hindsight has shown me to be. However, property is still selling and prices in this area at least are still rising. There are signs of reduction but only from ridiculously overpriced down to considerably overpriced. I have no idea of the finances of the buyers but if they have managed to sell down south and moved 'oop north' then they won't have a problem.

The hype works both ways as well, read the Daily Mail for example and you would think that Chicken Licken was the main reporter sometimes (apologies for those who weren't treated to such wonderous tales at primary school - seems a bit rubbish now but you'll get the idea).

"Even with a crash of 50% most would not lose as they bought more than 5 years ago"

Good!! Let it crash then....surely then everyone's a winner...

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Right, I'm going to be controversial.

I've been following this site for about a year. I agree with everyone here, in that I think houses are overpriced. I am working but not a housebuyer, as I am still paying off my student debt. I will only think about buying a flat when I've paid off my debts. At the moment, I rent, and it's affordable.

My first problem is this: you lot seem to have been predicting the house price crash for YEARS. Since at least 2001, you have been predicting a ********** that will spark the end of life as we know for the economy. But has it happened? Now prices are rising again in London, buoyed up by the Olympics, and the drop seems long in coming in the provinces.

See previous posts regarding the existence of the site (not even 2 years old yet).

I think that there is too much political will and money invested in the housing market. New Labour will NEVER allow house prices to crash, as it will be the end of their domination of the political scene. The government will do anything to keep prices rising. This was obvious in the last election, where London was plastered with billboards bearing the slogan 'The Tories gave us Negative Equity.'

If political parties truly had the power to keep their domination of the political scene intact, NuLabour would never have been elected in the first place.

My second issue concerns the attitudes of people on this forum: the myth of easy credit when house prices eventually do crash. Lots of people on this forum assume that if/when house prices crash, they will be able to snap up a bargain. But unless you have the full purchase price in cash, I don't think you will be able to get credit to purchase the house. When a general crash occurs, the last thing the banks want is more debt: they will be calling in their security. So unless people on this forum have a large amount of cash saved, they will not be able to buy that house when the time comes.

People were still geting mortgages during the last crash. The most likely scenario is a tightening of credit rules and a return to 3.5x multiples.

I'm glad I've got that off my chest. What does everyone else think?

AWOOGA!

Edited by Bart of Darkness

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My first problem is this: you lot seem to have been predicting the house price crash for YEARS. Since at least 2001, you have been predicting a ********** that will spark the end of life as we know for the economy. But has it happened? Now prices are rising again in London, buoyed up by the Olympics, and the drop seems long in coming in the provinces.

The house price crash is not like a car crash in the sense that the longer you wait without one happening the less likely it is to happen.

It is like waiting for a bus, the longer you wait without one arriving, the more likely one is to arrive in the next period of time. The higher prices rise, the further they must crash, simple as that.

I think that there is too much political will and money invested in the housing market. New Labour will NEVER allow house prices to crash, as it will be the end of their domination of the political scene. The government will do anything to keep prices rising. This was obvious in the last election, where London was plastered with billboards bearing the slogan 'The Tories gave us Negative Equity.'

How will New Labour stop the crash? They don't really have many levers at their disposal. Don't you think the Tories would have stopped the last crash if they could have?

frugalista

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Right, I'm going to be controversial.

I've been following this site for about a year. I agree with everyone here, in that I think houses are overpriced. I am working but not a housebuyer, as I am still paying off my student debt. I will only think about buying a flat when I've paid off my debts. At the moment, I rent, and it's affordable.

My first problem is this: you lot seem to have been predicting the house price crash for YEARS. Since at least 2001, you have been predicting a ********** that will spark the end of life as we know for the economy. But has it happened? Now prices are rising again in London, buoyed up by the Olympics, and the drop seems long in coming in the provinces.

I think that there is too much political will and money invested in the housing market. New Labour will NEVER allow house prices to crash, as it will be the end of their domination of the political scene. The government will do anything to keep prices rising. This was obvious in the last election, where London was plastered with billboards bearing the slogan 'The Tories gave us Negative Equity.'

My second issue concerns the attitudes of people on this forum: the myth of easy credit when house prices eventually do crash. Lots of people on this forum assume that if/when house prices crash, they will be able to snap up a bargain. But unless you have the full purchase price in cash, I don't think you will be able to get credit to purchase the house. When a general crash occurs, the last thing the banks want is more debt: they will be calling in their security. So unless people on this forum have a large amount of cash saved, they will not be able to buy that house when the time comes.

I'm glad I've got that off my chest. What does everyone else think?

I can't quite tell whether Marmiteman is another troll or another intellectually-challenged bull.

Well, your first problem is clearly only a problem to you, since it doesn't actually exist in the real world.

As for your "the government will never let it happen", I can only assume you are a very naive recent graduate who still believes the UK government is all-powerful.

I'm imagining the Cabinet conversation the last time around:

Maggie says "So, what about these house prices that seem phenomenally high and starting to fall? What do we do about them? Should we save the UK population or not?"

Lawson replies "Nah, fug 'em."

Maggie says "Yeah, you're right. Let's face it, both of us are bored with power, lets pizz off. After all, it's a bit unfair - the Tory's have ran the country for ages now, let's give Labour a go for 15 years or so."

Your second point is slightly more intelligent. I'd agree there will be a credit tightening when the revolution comes and it will be much more difficult to get a "lie-to-buy" six times income multiples mortgage. However, for well educated professional people with good deposits who only want relatively modest income multiples (the majority of HPCers) I think the banks will be happy to lend to them.

Your idea that banks will not lend to ANYONE is a bit fanciful. However, BTLs who have already demonstrated their ability to waste the banks' cash? Now, they may struggle to get extended lines of credit.

Don't get me wrong, most HPCers want intelligent bulls to debate with but I think you need to pick up your game rather dramatically.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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