Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

For Those Waiting For An Hpc


Recommended Posts

I have two possible criteria:

1. I will assume the bottom of the market is in after 6 months of rises and volumes are getting back to more 'normal' levels.

2. The capital I have will make better returns in a house than investing it less the costs of rent.

Both of these are a very long way from happening and I'm not worried at all about missing any fictional boats.

Can you define what you mean by volumes at "normal" levels and put a figure on it?

If you listen to such as the B of E they talk about volumes being down compared to when the financial crisis started. However those levels were not what I would call normal. Note also that the number of cash sales is reportedly increasing, up from 25% in 2007 to 40% in 2011 (possibly as inequality has grown, foreign buyers, etc)

Edited by Democorruptcy
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 431
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

To avoid any doubt I did not use the word 'bullish' and I did not say that I thought nominal prices were or would rise.

West Yorkshire

Which part of West Yorkshire?

......After 18 months gainful employment, I very nearly bought an apartment for £44k, but I felt it would be stretching myself, and the bank wouldnt lend me 4x salary + ............ [Those apartments are priced at £170k + today]

These apartment's I mentioned are in West Yorkshire............. I can prove it with a link if you like?

The national average wage back then in 1996 was £16.6k

This appartment was £44k

The average wage of most of the people I know in that area is around £20k today, and those apartments are now £170k.

Edited by Milton
Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the most uncertain time regarding the financial future of the entire world we have seen for generations. Any damn thing could happen... eurozone is on the precipice, relatively newly elected government here is reducing benefit payments, etc. Id have a go at reading a paper once in a while if I were you.

I would be interested to know when was there a time when the future was certain.

My perspective is that the last three years has been, by some distance, the most favourable and the most stable period for interest rates in my lifetime. I usually baulk at joining the consensus view but I don't see that changing significantly in the next one or even two years.

Link to post
Share on other sites

My perspective is that the last three years has been, by some distance, the most favourable and the most stable period for interest rates in my lifetime. I usually baulk at joining the consensus view but I don't see that changing significantly in the next one or even two years.

Favourable for whom, debtors?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Which part of West Yorkshire?

These apartment's I mentioned are in West Yorkshire............. I can prove it with a link if you like?

The national average wage back then in 1996 was £16.6k

This appartment was £44k

The average wage of most of the people I know in that area is around £20k today, and those apartments are now £170k.

yeah, but, we are much more intelligent these days than neanderthal 1990's, 20th Century cavemen.

Link to post
Share on other sites

My home is my home, it is a house owned by someone else but it's my home. The interest on the money I have in the bank, rather than tied up in an illiquid, depreciating asset, more then covers the amount I pay out in rent and I am more than £100K in pocket as a result.

I don't know if you have children, but if you do did you raise them in a UK rental? You may call your current property home, but that doesn't change the fact that your landlord has a veto on whether you will continue to live there past the end of your fixed term.

Link to post
Share on other sites

As I said before, buy, but buy something at a sensible price. Ignore the asking price, that's just EA fantasy nonses, ignroe the EA sales bow-lax, for it's is recognisable as just that.

Yup.

STR Jan 2007. Bought back in June 2011. 25% below initial asking price, just waited and waited for 18 months and then got it for something a lot more reasonable.

Did we hit the real bottom? Probably not.

Will I regret it? Possibly

Is it my dream home? Not really.

Have I got four kids, a need to start paying down a mortgage as quick as poss while IR's are low, and am I 47 so don't have the luxury of holding out another ten years or so, pissing in the wind and hoping, while the BoE turns our STR fund to dust? You betcha.

In life, as in everything else, you make your choices and live with them.

B

Link to post
Share on other sites

I would be interested to know when was there a time when the future was certain.

My perspective is that the last three years has been, by some distance, the most favourable and the most stable period for interest rates in my lifetime. I usually baulk at joining the consensus view but I don't see that changing significantly in the next one or even two years.

Exactly, when my father bought he never for a moment expected interest rates to rocket under Thatcher. He worked through it and took the pain.

It seems to me on here some can lose perspective. To me it's going a bit far to say postpone house buying due to current economic conditions or future house appreciation expectations or are waiting for the perfect conditions to buy. The one thing you cannot buy is your time back.

If we don't get a significant house price crash in the next two years I'll be buying anyway as I should have saved what I wanted by then.

I wouldn't count on things like a Greek default or a financial run to save your skins as the one thing that's been demonstrated so far is that the elite can and will make this up as they go along. They write their own rule book and by god they'll write it so technically Greece will never default.

At best I am of the opinion house prices will be on a low grind downwards but will take years.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Which part of West Yorkshire?

These apartment's I mentioned are in West Yorkshire............. I can prove it with a link if you like?

The national average wage back then in 1996 was £16.6k

This appartment was £44k

The average wage of most of the people I know in that area is around £20k today, and those apartments are now £170k.

Apologies for my delay responding I'm still getting to grips with the board format.

North Leeds.

Thankyou. I'm not looking to buy anything I was just offering my opinion.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know if you have children, but if you do did you raise them in a UK rental? You may call your current property home, but that doesn't change the fact that your landlord has a veto on whether you will continue to live there past the end of your fixed term.

Yes, I have children and I "owned" a house when they were growing up. However, until my mortgage was paid off I never felt 100% secure. Particularly in the formative years of my business, with cross guarantees.

I negotiate my contract well before it expires so that I have a minimum of six months unexpired. Currently its eighteen months.

Link to post
Share on other sites

STRd in 2010 and lasted 6 months in a rental as a stop gap measure but the interest on my fund was not enough to pay the rent so bought in Jan 11 and have got on with my life. No mortgage and not much savings either to be eroded by poor interest rates.

Have to say my feeling is - fine to rent and wait (house prices will drop eventually) if you are young and don't mind insecurity of rentals and can easily afford the rental payments but for those who value security and have the cash - I would buy. Incidentally as a cash buyer I got a mere 10% off asking but it felt good.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The one thing you cannot buy is your time back.

This is true, of course. However, by avoiding stress and having good finances which gives you the ability to eat well, have better medical care, retire early, the likely hood is that you will live longer, effectively buying years of life. The royals are doing this now, they are living to a ripe old age. The stress of having to slog your guts out to over-pay for a slave box could take years off your life.

I bought my first house for cash because prices were sensible. I've never looked back. Never had to worry about my house being repo'd. I have avoided years of discomfort and stress.

So, you can buy a better future. :P

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
Link to post
Share on other sites

When if ever, are you going to give up

God knows.

Pre 2007 the bullish arguments all revolved around low inflation, low unemployment and a strong economy. 5 years into the deepest recession since the 1930s and properties are still being priced at peak levels.

The fundamentals haven't changed, income ratios and rental yields are way out of line with historic norms, prices are only being supported by ultra low interest rates.

How long can it last?

Link to post
Share on other sites

How long can it last?

I saw this today, in the Halifax HPI report, and I think it explains why, and what would need to change to get a serious drop:

"Mortgage payments for a new borrower in the second half of 2011 were at their lowest

as a proportion of disposable earnings for 14 years. Typical mortgage payments for a

new borrower - both first-time buyers and homemovers – at the long-term average loan to

value ratio, stood at 27% of disposable earnings in the fourth quarter of 2011. This was well

below the average of 37% recorded over the past 27 years

Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to say, I did post this the other day in the tumbleweed that seems to be the Yorkshire forum....

http://www.housepric...dpost&p=3248500

....Unlike places like Manchester, the city boundary encompasses large semi rural but prosperous areas from Otley to Wetherby along the Wharfe valley..........

God dont get me started on the Wharfe Valley. Ever talked to an estate Agent from Ilkley?

Even today they will tell you that house prices will NEVER drop.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to say, I did post this the other day in the tumbleweed that seems to be the Yorkshire forum....

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=174680&view=findpost&p=3248500

I did read your post.

By coincidence I drove into Leeds on the M621 (or whatever they call it this week) on Friday afternoon and saw those cranes. My guess was it was the new shopping centre at Boar Lane.

I don't think Leeds as a city has suffered much, if at all, over the last five years and I agree that it's relatively diversified employment base meant that it was well placed to absorb the worst effects of the economic slowdow after 2007.

Link to post
Share on other sites

STRd in 2010 and lasted 6 months in a rental as a stop gap measure but the interest on my fund was not enough to pay the rent so bought in Jan 11 and have got on with my life. No mortgage and not much savings either to be eroded by poor interest rates.

Have to say my feeling is - fine to rent and wait (house prices will drop eventually) if you are young and don't mind insecurity of rentals and can easily afford the rental payments but for those who value security and have the cash - I would buy. Incidentally as a cash buyer I got a mere 10% off asking but it felt good.

If you STR in 2010, may I ask, did you buy early enough to see your house Triple In value?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Ive been paying my relatively small mortgage down for 10 years now and the last three have seen my payments reduced significantly to 3.49% (Halifax srv). At minimum pyments required I will own my house 100% within eight years.

I do not need permission to paint my house.I do not need to wait for a londlord to paint it either. I actually enjoy painting my house and get a great deal of satisfactio from it. Before anyone mentions the cost to maintain or replace a boiler, I had a new system installed when I moved in and chose to pay no maintenance contract payments on it either and its never let me down. I expect to maybe have to replace the boiler in perhaps another 8 years.

Maintenance costs for homeowners are often blown up out of all proportion to reality, by some die hard renters. A boiler or door lock doesn`t break every five minutes you know.

I certainly wouldnt buy now unless I felt I had paid a realistic valuation and that is difficult to quantify apart from comparing to sold prices within the last ten years (maybe) and offering near 2004/2002 prices . Personally I would though be willing to pay more for something I really liked than maybe someone else would, but then I have always followed my own instinct even when buying a car..all of lifes purchasing choices are not necessarily driven by the making or saving of money alone...My God how sad is that?

I think the choice of nice houses to buy in areas appealing to an individual are thin on the ground but also nice houses with decent landlords are also thin on the ground if (like very many)one is tied to a particular catchment area..

Too many times you hear arguments for and against buying by people "who would say that wouldn`t they" Now I`m going downstairs in my illiquid depreciating asset knowing I own 66% of it and (if needs be) could own all of it next week. I personally feel proud to be buying my home and no one has right of entry through my door now or next month, unless I invite them in, or I have shot someone or am on the most wanted list.....

Edited by GinAndPlatonic
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.