Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Pete

Prices On The Up Again

Recommended Posts

Towards bottome of article

Rightmove Up

I've been trying to ignore the anecdotal upturn I've been seeing in my neck of the woods (Brighton) - many places seeling for more than last year - but it looks like its hitting the numbers now...

B*ll*x

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rightmove is expected to reveal that house prices rose by about 0.5% in October, after a decline the previous month. Prices in London are expected to have risen more strongly.

'Expected' to reveal, is this their way of not breaking the embargo date by making a guess after seeing the report B)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will be interest for me on Monday with another bullish report by the BBC (reporting Rightmove, as they will). As one person in my office will read this and rub it in - as usual.

But guess what... she's been using her neighbours house as a market guage saying it won't drop - and they dropped the price by £10k today! Ha.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldn't make too much of it - Rightmove is based on initial asking prices - whether they actually achieve this is a moot point. Also 0.5 % is neither here nor there. My take on the situation is that this is a dead cat bounce. For what it is worth I am seeing a lot of reductions for existing properties - 10k here and there and the houses are still not selling.

Given the following anatomy of the crash:

1. Prices stop rising

2. People stop spending due to lack of ability to MEW. Some forced sellers drop prices. Some FTB's/ BTL's foolishly think that houses are now cheap get into the market.

3. Unemployment increases and reposessions rise

4. Prices start falling. Annual price rises go negative.

Don't forget we are only somewhere in between stage 2 and stage 3 of the crash

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everybody who doesn't buy, now, will be priced out forever. Anybody who does buy will be rewarded with a lifetime of riches, as their property will continue its 30% yearly price increase.

Renters, and anybody born in a future generation, will not be able to afford a £1,000,000 starter home in 15 years. They will live in tent cities, and hondas.

This asset bubble is different than all of the others - it will never slow down, or pop. The gains are permanent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been trying to ignore the anecdotal upturn I've been seeing in my neck of the woods (Brighton) - many places seeling for more than last year - but it looks like its hitting the numbers now...

B*ll*x

That's odd because Brighton had the biggest fall in prices in September (2%) according to hometrack. This was reported in the Argus last week along with several bearish comments from estate agents.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is a law on the books that provides for damages when you make a false statement to induce someone to enter into a contract and that person suffers a loss. There is another law which provides for damages when you make a negligent misstatement that another relies on to his detriment.

Seems to me that some EAs and VIs may be treading on legal thin ice and that there may be some class-action fodder brewing. There is a big difference between issuing misleading statements and making mere "puffs" that promote your product. A VI can get away with saying "now is a good time to buy" (a "puff") but may be violating the law when it says "now is a good time to buy because prices rose by X%."

Nationwide will probably counter Rightmove with the real figures a few days later........

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ODPMdata, land registry figures, Halifax and Rightmove, all say for fact that prices are going up or at the most not coming down; people here continue to say that it is vested interest spin. Are you people blind or what?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can someone provide information on the number of unsold properties on estate agents books, and the number of transaction in the last few months?

Rebel, if transactions volumes are 30% lower than last year I would take this "rising house prices" with a pinch of salt. What you should look at is the total amount of new money going into property. If only one house sells in the entire country next month, but sells at the asking price, then all the VIs could conclude the "market is bouncing back", "prices are up" etc etc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

October last year was +0.6% only to be followed by -1.7% in November.

I think we could see a repeat in 2005.

I am looking forward to seeing regional data: suspect that tells a different story, especially in the South.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is a law on the books that provides for damages when you make a false statement to induce someone to enter into a contract and that person suffers a loss. There is another law which provides for damages when you make a negligent misstatement that another relies on to his detriment.

Could you quote the actual legislation, please. I am not a lawyer, but it seems to me that the first of those only applies if you are lying in order to persuade someone to enter into a contract with you, which doesn't apply to Rightmove -- although I suppose that you could make a case for Halifax or Nationwide. And that the second only applies to a professional who owes you a duty of care, such as your financial adviser or lawyer, but that if you rely on false claims from third parties wiith whom you have no relationship then you have only yourself to blame.

Plus, of course, I doubt that any of these indices are false -- I'm sure that they're all following their published methodologies and that the figures do reflect their raw data. Which would also make it rather difficult to bring a suit for someone publishing a true statement.

Edited by zorn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could you quote the actual legislation, please. I am not a lawyer, but it seems to me that the first of those only applies if you are lying in order to persuade someone to enter into a contract with you, which doesn't apply to Rightmove -- although I suppose that you could make a case for Halifax or Nationwide. And that the second only applies to a professional who owes you a duty of care, such as your financial adviser or lawyer, but that if you rely on false claims from third parties wiith whom you have no relationship then you have only yourself to blame.

Plus, of course, I doubt that any of these indices are false -- I'm sure that they're all following their published methodologies and that the figures do reflect their raw data. Which would also make it rather difficult to bring a suit for someone publishing a true statement.

You are right on the first point. There must be either a contractual relationship or forseeability on the part of the person making the false or negligent statement. A member of RICS would be the sort of professional who could find themselves in trouble if they informed a customer that the market was rising when the opposite is true. If the customer relied on the advice to make a judgment as to whether or not to buy and found that the market was falling when the advice was given may well give rise to liability. THis is why financial advisors preface everything with the warning that your investment may go up or down. EAs and VIs seem to get away with hype and spin with no accountability.

All professional people owe a common law duty of care to those who rely on their expertise for sound advise. The wider duty that may be owed to the public at large by EAs and VIs may come under the laws dealing with false advertising. Something a government department would have to look at if a member of the public complained.

A good artcile for those who like to study legal issues:

http://www.kimbells.com/News/NewsRead.asp?ID=BREW07

You are also correct on the second point: depends how you work the numbers. There needs to be an accounting standard applied to house prices so that the public is not misled. Seems that Nationwide are always at odds with Halifax. Last month was a good example. Halifax said HPI of, I believe, 1.8%. Nationwide said down .02%.

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ODPMdata, land registry figures, Halifax and Rightmove, all say for fact that prices are going up or at the most not coming down; people here continue to say that it is vested interest spin. Are you people blind or what?

this is not like for like sales..

this is the average accross the board.. Either asking price, agread mortgages.. or final sales price..

In a strong market a larger number of smaller homes sell then in a shrinking market..

the average reflects the average regardless of property.

I am seeing discounts on new builds of 30% on peak..

essentially people do not want to believe in the crash.. press, government.. people.. VI's etc..

only those that are priced out want a crash..

so how do we get the crash..?

Well we had to sit on our hands until the shift of money in the country toward massive debt payments became so large that there is no possible way that current house prices can be sustained.

No possible way..

so the debt burden has grown to a point where it is bringing the economy down and forcing up interest rates..

Even if the interst rates do not go up soon.. the economic situation in the country will eventually force this..

its just Economics.. it can't be avoided.. and okay it takes a lot of research to see this..

but a good proportion of people saw this years ago.. evn more understood that it always happened.

and if there are a not enough people willing to do the research to see this.. then they will buy.. at what price they are happy with..

but that does not change the fact that the Economy cannot support it... at todays interst rates..

i think you know this..

and no economist has ever disagread with it.

its the way it is..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been looking at the BBC to see if they published Rightmove's HPI reports. The briefly mentioned Augusts, but with a lot of Spin about Wales (-0.2%). They never mentioned Septembers (that I can find) as this shown a -0.4% drop.

But I bet they publish Octobers as its +0.5%. We'll soon find out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But I bet they publish Octobers as its +0.5%. We'll soon find out.

That's also my feeling - there'll probably directly attribute it to the IR cut, and the slightly higher mortgage approvals as well.

It's probably a dead cat bounce, but after at least a year of expecting a faster crash and not getting one - then I'm still very uncertain as to where all this is going.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't you just feel like convincing people you don't like to buy an investment property?

Oh yes yes yes yes! :ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is annoying news admittedly as this one report will be clung to by the VI and press as comfort that all is well.

Ultimately I am relaxed though based on what I am seeing and hearing on the ground. If I had to hazard an explanation it would be (i) much increased numbers of sellers/property hitting the market during September and October once schools went back and those at aspirational asking prices based on last years numbers; and (ii) these prices are slightly greater than those which the people who have been trying to sell since Spring realised (after months of cold realisation) they had to pitch/move their prices to if they were to get a serious viewing. I think a volume based reason must account for the uptick but open to views.

Just wait until the Autumn houses fail to sell (or sell at what the owners expect!) - next Spring we will be in cruise mode.

Edited by Tempest

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a surprise just when the year on year figure was about to dip to below zero we have a bounce back. I expect this to happen to all of the indices in the next couple of months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a surprise just when the year on year figure was about to dip to below zero we have a bounce back. I expect this to happen to all of the indices in the next couple of months.

It's a sucker's rally. Should there be another IR cut, there will probably be a further sucker's rally.

Seems to me that the effort being put in to artificially engineer a soft-landing is huge.

In this age of 24-hour media and endless spin, taking advantage of Britain's obsession with bricks and mortar, the mortgage lenders, EAs and VI websites have all lulled the population into a false sense of security.

We WILL have our crash. They can only put it off for so long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.