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How do you think the secondary peak (of the current peak) will be explained in the future?

A dead cat bounce? But there were no noticable bounces in the last cycles...

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How do you think the secondary peak (of the current peak) will be explained in the future?

A dead cat bounce? But there were no noticable bounces in the last cycles...

Biggest push known to man to try and keep things afloat for just that little bit longer, maybe in the future we will be privy to why the extension was needed.

Its big for a dead cat bounce, ive seen the same type of double top on the SM, basically finding support and resistance at the same levels. 3 times a charm? i think not.

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How do you think the secondary peak (of the current peak) will be explained in the future?

A dead cat bounce? But there were no noticable bounces in the last cycles...

Bouncing off some ceiling determined by the current economic constraints...?

My theory at least.

BTW Last time did hav the od one or two month rally, but I think

when people saw the bullish headlines, they got scared away by

them - their effect had completely inverted :D

ABB

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I'm hoping that one of our resident bulls will post something about how prices have now stabilised at a permanently higher level.

My own reading of this is that we haven't yet had a massive economic shock to the system, in the 70's they had the oil crisis, and in the 90's the interest rate fiasco(s).

It looks like unemployment and debt is just going to have to slay this beast.

I have some other ideas, which I intend to post when I have a bit more time.

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Why double-top?

Spinning SIPPs expectation?

Bubb - BTL epicentre of crash?

Me - No price movement and next to no sales in my local area (bottom end of market) for ten months now. One thing's for sure. We're a sitting duck. But as you hint BandWagon - what's gonna happen?

Edited by megaflop

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I've been waiting for Nationwide to update their site so I could post a new version.

As usual the data is from:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical.htm

UK HousePrices since 1952.xls

Anyway I think it's good for this site to have some input that stimulates constructive debate.

Let the games begin...

Could you graph average monthly repayments on a new mortgage against gross earnings, instead. Since most houses are bought on a mortgage, the prices aren't actually important; the mortgage repayments are what matter.

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Could you graph average monthly repayments on a new mortgage against gross earnings, instead. Since most houses are bought on a mortgage, the prices aren't actually important; the mortgage repayments are what matter.

I well understand what you're saying, but I also find it quite alarming.

This is similar to someone walking into a car showroom, with £500 a month to spend, and then structuring the deal to get the best car.

The price doesn't matter, just how much car will £500 a month get?

Many people would see no problem with this approach.

If you have a look at his posts, spline has done some very interesting work on monthly payments, which tend to remain consistent, while prices have shot up.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...15871&hl=spline

To some extent this does support the high prices scenario, but even with rates this low, we are still in house price la-la land.

If the bulls insist that there is reason the economy can sustain these higher prices, I'd like to see the evidence.

Edited by BandWagon

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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