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dubsie

Slump In Retail Could Hit The Housing Market

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I run a number of retail companies and I can't remember trading conditions as bad as this in the 20 years we've been trading. Even online sales are now suffering and it seems to be getting worse.

I'll give you an example, one website last year took over £80,000 in October, I'll be lucky to get 30,000 this October. This is the start of the Christmas shopping period and a poor christmas will almost certainly mean job losses in the new year. Various things can cause a drop in sales, but I know other companies in the same position...so its not just me.

Don't get me wrong some products are still selling well, but because other retailer are finding trading hard they are selling a greater range of products to try and boost turnover. The result is lots of retailer treading on each others toes.

If Christmas is poor and I hope its not, then unemployment will reach 2 million in 2006 and thats when house prices will crash. We must remember how much people have borrowed to buy a house, it's very different from the 80s when the average house cost just £60,000. You lose your job these days and you have to find a new one pretty quick.

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I run a number of retail companies and I can't remember trading conditions as bad as this in the 20 years we've been trading. Even online sales are now suffering and it seems to be getting worse.

Last Christmas wasn't good for the retailers apparently, and I don't honestly see anything that has changed this year which is going to improve the situation, if anything it will be worse.

People's debt is now a huge burden, so they're cutting back. Cheaper online sales might take a larger share of the Christmas shopping, maybe.

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I did almost all of my shopping online last christmas....

I don't like mingling with hordes of busy, sweaty chavvy people to scrum for the last things in the shop.

I can sit in my cosy chair and order eveything online, and get it far cheaper.

Although I have noticed that most of the M&S stock in for christmas is already tagged as reduced!

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The retail slowdown is a funny thing. Companies come out reporting a fall in sales of 3% as a disaster. So, that means, Joe Public is spending £97 quid instead for £100 (of which a large amount is for pointless stuff anyway).

These companies must be so overextended, indebted, overexpanded and have assumed continual boom forever and ever.

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Something i noticed last christmas was the usual tat was so cheap... I was buying bigger and better and more presents but spending ALOT less than usual.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
I don't like mingling with hordes of busy, sweaty chavvy people to scrum for the last things in the shop.

Ah, a kindred spirit.

To this fine list I would have also added ill-mannered.

God bless the Internet.

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I run a number of retail companies and I can't remember trading conditions as bad as this in the 20 years we've been trading. Even online sales are now suffering and it seems to be getting worse.

I'll give you an example, one website last year took over £80,000 in October, I'll be lucky to get 30,000 this October. This is the start of the Christmas shopping period and a poor christmas will almost certainly mean job losses in the new year. Various things can cause a drop in sales, but I know other companies in the same position...so its not just me.

Don't get me wrong some products are still selling well, but because other retailer are finding trading hard they are selling a greater range of products to try and boost turnover. The result is lots of retailer treading on each others toes.

If Christmas is poor and I hope its not, then unemployment will reach 2 million in 2006 and thats when house prices will crash. We must remember how much people have borrowed to buy a house, it's very different from the 80s when the average house cost just £60,000. You lose your job these days and you have to find a new one pretty quick.

Firstly welcome and thanks for this, am I right in believing that on line sales still represent less than 1% of all retail sales?

When you consider what happened with Index/still happening with Littlewoods you realise that there has to be consolidation in the marketplace. Rumours of an NBrown takeover now for 2 years also. I`ve always shook my head at the expansion of jobs in retail, pinned on nothing except cheap imports and cheap money it was always a recipe for disaster.

Edited by Converted Lurker

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The title should read;

"Slump In The Housing Market Could Hit Retail"

Housing hit retail, now retail is laying people off which will hit the housing market, which will hiy retail...... We are now into the second phase of the downward cycle, namely, the steep drop or CRASH. :)

The retail slowdown is a funny thing. Companies come out reporting a fall in sales of 3% as a disaster. So, that means, Joe Public is spending £97 quid instead for £100 (of which a large amount is for pointless stuff anyway).

These companies must be so overextended, indebted, overexpanded and have assumed continual boom forever and ever.

Wouldn't be the first time British companies have got their market forcasts wrong. The British steel industry got their prediction wrong in the 60's. They thought that demand would continue to rise, so they built extra steel plants at huge cost. The oil crisis of the 70's put paid to that and they spent the next 20 - 30 years closing plants!!

The scenario has a similar ring to it, no? <_<

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I don't think house prices will fall by 40%, but the market really depends on job security. Poor retail means distributors will suffer, domestic manufacturing will suffer and in turn will result in job losses.

A big increase in unemployment in turn will reduce wage inflation and affect how much people are willing to borrow to buy a house.

The reason property has done so well over the last 10 years is that the UK has had almost zero unemployment and the lowest inflation in a long time. People have borrowed 5 or 6 x their salary based on job security and interest rates.

The stock market also looks in a bad way, with almost 1/3 of there value being lost this month,

3 things could happen

1. Oil prices and the cost of manufacturing could force up inflation and in turn interest rates

2. Combined with rising Unemployemt and a poor stock market

3. Tax increases to reduce the 15 billion pound shortfall in government budget, would further increase the above.

I really hope it doesn't happen, but there is a distinct possibility it could as all the factors are ripe for a recession.

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I run a number of retail companies and I can't remember trading conditions as bad as this in the 20 years we've been trading. Even online sales are now suffering and it seems to be getting worse.

I'll give you an example, one website last year took over £80,000 in October, I'll be lucky to get 30,000 this October. This is the start of the Christmas shopping period and a poor christmas will almost certainly mean job losses in the new year. Various things can cause a drop in sales, but I know other companies in the same position...so its not just me.

Don't get me wrong some products are still selling well, but because other retailer are finding trading hard they are selling a greater range of products to try and boost turnover. The result is lots of retailer treading on each others toes.

If Christmas is poor and I hope its not, then unemployment will reach 2 million in 2006 and thats when house prices will crash. We must remember how much people have borrowed to buy a house, it's very different from the 80s when the average house cost just £60,000. You lose your job these days and you have to find a new one pretty quick.

Sorry mate but I hope Christmas is poor because it means that people aren't wasting a lot of money they don't have on stuff they don't really need. I would take it as a positive sign. We can't keep spending our way to growth in this country. Yes it might mean higher unemployment but debt funded growth has to stop eventually.

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Guest growl

I run a number of retail companies and I can't remember trading conditions as bad as this in the 20 years we've been trading. Even online sales are now suffering and it seems to be getting worse.

That explains so much of what is happening now. I wondered about Internet retail companies a while back. Last year the press actually blamed poor high street sales on people switching to online.

Two years ago they started blaming the poor autumn clothing sales, in high street fashion chains on the unusually warm weather. They did the same thing last year. This summer they blamed the unusually rainy weather on poor sales for people like Homebase.

When are the excuses going to stop. Basically people have gradually curbed their spending and it has been happening very gradually for two years. With a real dip in the last few months.

We've been in a retail recession since at least the spring(sky news first mentioned it). Manufacturing has the odd blip but its mostly in reccession.

All that's left now is the service sector, and going off some posts yesterday and my own personel experience. Expenditure on that has been slipping for the last three months.

Crimbo will definetly be the thing that tips over into full blown reccession if its gloomy. It will be the panic factor and there will be no spring bounce.

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The reason property has done so well over the last 10 years is that the UK has had almost zero unemployment and the lowest inflation in a long time.

No, it's because we've had interest rates at historical lows, and well below the non-fudged rate of inflation.

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That explains so much of what is happening now. I wondered about Internet retail companies a while back. Last year the press actually blamed poor high street sales on people switching to online.

Two years ago they started blaming the poor autumn clothing sales, in high street fashion chains on the unusually warm weather. They did the same thing last year. This summer they blamed the unusually rainy weather on poor sales for people like Homebase.

When are the excuses going to stop. Basically people have gradually curbed their spending and it has been happening very gradually for two years. With a real dip in the last few months.

We've been in a retail recession since at least the spring(sky news first mentioned it). Manufacturing has the odd blip but its mostly in reccession.

All that's left now is the service sector, and going off some posts yesterday and my own personel experience. Expenditure on that has been slipping for the last three months.

Crimbo will definetly be the thing that tips over into full blown reccession if its gloomy. It will be the panic factor and there will be no spring bounce.

Yes Christmas will determine what will happen in 2006

I know about 20- 30 other retailers and distributors and they are all feeling the it this month.

Online companies are also having problems as they run on smaller margins and in come cases have high running costs. Google adwords can get very expensive as much as 300 a day for some terms.

We are still making money but we have had to make staff redundant and reduce our spending.

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The retail slowdown is a funny thing. Companies come out reporting a fall in sales of 3% as a disaster. So, that means, Joe Public is spending £97 quid instead for £100 (of which a large amount is for pointless stuff anyway).

Actually there are no real falls, people are actually spending £103 this year compared to £100, however the retailers have over expanded so much that they really need £106 to make the figures stack up, hence the constant reference to "like for like sales", actual sales are higher than ever it's just that they're spread ever more thinly across more stores.

There's too much retail space, more than the market can support!

No they aren't. Being critical of others doesn't make you a fascist.

On the other hand being narrow-minded and doctrinaire just might.

My leftie friends are extremely critical of white 'working class' people, they even object to the inclusion of the word 'working' when refering to Chav's.

Edited by BuyingBear

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The retail slowdown is a funny thing. Companies come out reporting a fall in sales of 3% as a disaster. So, that means, Joe Public is spending £97 quid instead for £100 (of which a large amount is for pointless stuff anyway).

These companies must be so overextended, indebted, overexpanded and have assumed continual boom forever and ever.

The problem is every company forecasts and expects growth...

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Ever since I discovered Poundland and Primark my kids are very happy and well-dressed, and I am very happy, and quids in (and the mortgage is reducing nicely).

I will stroll down the shopping centre on Xmas Eve (it is always deserted) and buy the last few presents I didn't get online.

Xmas is an ace time of year - if you avoid the shops, and leave the TV off as much as you can. Get your parents and rellies round and eat lots of turkey and minced pies.

It's only the marketing and hype that spoils it to any degree.

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these people are your brothers and sisters you FKING FASCIST!!!

RIGHT ON!!

What is it about this site that attracts the mind police? Like moths to a flame!

Surely there must be a a seperate forum for wanabee left handed teenage lesbian socialist miltants?

Edited by KickThemInThePant

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Retail in the UK is probably the most important key indicator to whether property will fall in 2006. The reason is that it reflects how the domestic market is doing and how confident people are about spending thier money.

The fact is the UK public overspent by a staggering £80 billion in 2004 is a bad sign. Slow retail or a retail slump will mean slowing housing market or a crash. I don't think it will be 40% as that is unrealistic, probably around 15% nationally and maybe 40% in the South East.

The above figures are based on property values in europe and demand in the UK. Supply now out strips the demand and many properties have been over valued. Increasing unemployment will lower demand further as retail and distribution companies start to shed workers.

I predict 2 million unemployed by May 2006 and a sharp fall in property market followed by a wave a public sector redundancies in September. This will get ugly

Sorry mate but I hope Christmas is poor because it means that people aren't wasting a lot of money they don't have on stuff they don't really need. I would take it as a positive sign. We can't keep spending our way to growth in this country. Yes it might mean higher unemployment but debt funded growth has to stop eventually.

I couldn't agree more, but as a retailer online and on the high street it is very worrying. I have people working for me who depend on wages each month. I'm a small company and not interested in world domination...just an honest crust like many other small businesses. Making people redundant will only fuel a recession.

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these people are your brothers and sisters you FKING FASCIST!!!

They aren't my brothers & sisters thats for damn sure. They wouldn't stop to pis* on you if you were on fire, in fact they'd probably risk a burnt hand to nick your wallet. Chav scumbags.

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They aren't my brothers & sisters thats for damn sure. They wouldn't stop to pis* on you if you were on fire, in fact they'd probably risk a burnt hand to nick your wallet. Chav scumbags.

shut it oil-child

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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