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yawningdog

Stock Markets Crash Monday?

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

I've just been told that the stock market is set to crash fall heavily on Monday. I'm no expert on the markets. Is there any truth in this, and why not tomorrow? Why Monday?

Watch the Dow tomorrow, if the Far East markets have a serious fall and the Dow follows, then it will be Black Monday on the SE.

Always a nice day is Monday for a crash, makes good headlines.

See Monday 19th October 1987 after the Great Storm.

<_<

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I've just been told that the stock market is set to crash fall heavily on Monday. I'm no expert on the markets. Is there any truth in this, and why not tomorrow? Why Monday?

the truth is, no-one *knows* whats going to happen. Be careful if anyone claims to... there's always a degree of guesswork involved

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the truth is, no-one *knows* whats going to happen. Be careful if anyone claims to... there's always a degree of guesswork involved

Do you mean 'guess work' as in one year ago the sensible parties were saying that the houseprice gravy train was heading for the buffers very soon.

Today, a year on the houseprice gravy train has hit the buffers.

Was that a guess?

An informed guess?

or just plain old fashioned common sense and logic?

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Do you mean 'guess work' as in one year ago the sensible parties were saying that the houseprice gravy train was heading for the buffers very soon.

Today, a year on the houseprice gravy train has hit the buffers.

Was that a guess?

An informed guess?

or just plain old fashioned common sense and logic?

Yeah, but did anyone here actually say "Monday"? (as in 'house prices will crash on Monday') Even Dr Bubb gave himself a 2 week window talking about the markets - and he seems to have some genuine expertise. You should check his thread.

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Guest muttley

Do you mean 'guess work' as in one year ago the sensible parties were saying that the houseprice gravy train was heading for the buffers very soon.

Today, a year on the houseprice gravy train has hit the buffers.

Was that a guess?

An informed guess?

or just plain old fashioned common sense and logic?

If you have enough guesses then you're bound to be right eventually.Especially if you are vague in your predictions.

Yawning dog asked the question "Will the Stock Market crash on Monday?"

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I've just been told that the stock market is set to crash fall heavily on Monday. I'm no expert on the markets. Is there any truth in this, and why not tomorrow? Why Monday?

...and who was the shoeshine boy who told you this? :lol:

p

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If you have enough guesses then you're bound to be right eventually.Especially if you are vague in your predictions.

Yawning dog asked the question "Will the Stock Market crash on Monday?"

Sounds a bit like astrology to me. Although apparently there are long range astrologers do exceptionally well on the stock market, most suggest something positive an specific will happening just about everyday and on the one day in 500 that they sync up we (or at least I) tend to be amazed! If it is Monday, I will take it all back.

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Do you mean 'guess work' as in one year ago the sensible parties were saying that the houseprice gravy train was heading for the buffers very soon.

Today, a year on the houseprice gravy train has hit the buffers.

Was that a guess?

An informed guess?

or just plain old fashioned common sense and logic?

I accept what you're implying, but the truth is much more simple than this... my point is that no-one can predict anything with certainty. There is a chance that the sun won't rise tomorrow. OK, it's a very small one, but we do not live in a binary universe where everything can be reduced to a 1 or 0... a yes or no.

I'm fairly certain that there is no-one on this board who has predicted how this HPC has unfolded. Dr B has probably come closest because his guesswork is backed up by a deep understanding of the uncertainty of things... and you will note from his postings that he talks a lot about hedging and puts plenty of disclaimers in his predictions. It's never as straightforward as saying this *will* happen then. The nature of risk.

and through this understanding he grows closer to the truth and oneness. Om.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
I'm fairly certain that there is no-one on this board who has predicted how this HPC has unfolded

It`s a very long journey back to the inception of this Forum and even longer back to the original.

There among the archives are the members who were predicting what exactly would happen and has happened and the bulls who laughed. HPC`s second birthday falls this month and many of these old posters no longer visit now.

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There's no reason for stock makets to crash, not Monday or anyday soon as the market isn't overvalued as is the housing market.

By historic measurements of value, the market is seriously over-valued.

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The source of my information is from my older sister. She has been investing actively in the markets for years, always with the advice from a particular close friend. This friend is an old chap aparently with years of experience in the markets.

He told her a short while back that she should buy into gold. Today he told her to sell up now because the markets will fall very heavily on Monday. The emphasis was on VERY.

As I said, I don't claim any expertise on the markets. It's a powerful comment that called for some views from you lot.

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It`s a very long journey back to the inception of this Forum and even longer back to the original.

There among the archives are the members who were predicting what exactly would happen and has happened and the bulls who laughed. HPC`s second birthday falls this month and many of these old posters no longer visit now.

Sorry Charles, its a poor analogy and I know it. What I mean to say is that I was guilty of calling the HPC too early, like I called the 2000-03 stock market crash too early. You may well be right in what you say, but the precise timing and nuances of the crash are beyond any single human mind to predict accurately. It's a poor analogy because the housing market is far more vague and subjectively measured... unlike the FTSE where one can say "down 98pts on Friday 14th" or whatever

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The source of my information is from my older sister. She has been investing actively in the markets for years, always with the advice from a particular close friend. This friend is an old chap aparently with years of experience in the markets.

He told her a short while back that she should buy into gold. Today he told her to sell up now because the markets will fall very heavily on Monday. The emphasis was on VERY.

As I said, I don't claim any expertise on the markets. It's a powerful comment that called for some views from you lot.

My view is that the markets will rise on Monday. <_<

My dentist told me so.

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hi all , new to HPC , love it , great thread btw , my thoughts on this one...

There are some very good reasons why I agree with your sisters old friends sage like advice...

-Appears a flag has formed on the dow , looking for a target here of 9600 in the not too distant.

-Refco news as mentioned by Bubb , who knows what this story will bring , could be some derivatives impact a la LTCM , perhaps Buffets time bomb is upon us ? ?

-Complacency abound , as 1987 and 1929 . Seems like we all expect a bounce nowadays when markets decline , shorts run for cover , and bulls rush in for the lows eh Bubb ?

-Volume has backed this decline.

-Weekly negative divergence on all major indices.

-Markets should have gone a lot lower prior to Mar 03 bounce , we didnt see a true capitulation yet i.e mass margin calls.

-Corporate Bankruptcy rules change on Monday in U.S

Okay , so those reasons i consider rational , how about some consiparcy stuff , not so ratiional. Sisters old friend didnt have a funny handshake did he ?

-Many parallels with 1987 , crash followed major hurricane.

-England last won the ashes in 1987 :-)

-Gann cycle 18 years is a well known cycle , Monday is about as close to 18yr anniversary as we'll get. Wednesday is the actual anniversary , black wednesday perhaps ?

I dont think this one will bounce , but im sure many people do. By the way I am short , and standing firm.

Jesse L

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
black wednesday perhaps ?

Nah, that booked for Chancellors of The Exchequer.

<_<

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Sounds a bit like astrology to me. Although apparently there are long range astrologers do exceptionally well on the stock market, most suggest something positive an specific will happening just about everyday and on the one day in 500 that they sync up we (or at least I) tend to be amazed! If it is Monday, I will take it all back.

This is what's rattling them - Xtreemly auspicious for the Asian Region! There are even times added, so you could make a coffee or two between buying and selling a few Billion!

The partial lunar eclipse of Monday October 17 2005 will be visible over east Asia, Australasia, and most of North America.

The partial eclipse will begin at 11:34:06 UT and end just under one hour later at 12:32:25 UT, with the moment of greatest eclipse at 12:03:21 UT. The penumbral phases of the eclipse begin at 09:51:29 UT and end at 14:15:10 UT

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...and who was the shoeshine boy who told you this? :lol:

p

It was a shoeshine boy who caused Joe Kennedy to sell his stocks in 1929.

Saved his fortune and.....well, you know the rest.

The link cited above (http://www.stock-market-crash.net/blog.htm) hasnt been updated since April 2005.

...so much for imminent

Edited by needle

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I've just been told that the stock market is set to crash fall heavily on Monday. I'm no expert on the markets. Is there any truth in this, and why not tomorrow? Why Monday?

The stock market tends to fall in the autumn. The economy is about to tank. The bond yeald in the US is gong flat/ about to invert (inverted bond yeald means a recession)

I guess it very well could fall in the next few months.

Monday? We will all see Monday.

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