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Rightmove Asking Prices December 2011


rantnrave

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HOLA441
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HOLA443

It is interesting how they use red on the map to show price RISES and blue to show price FALLS - which is the opposite to what you would expect.

As there are less price rises on the map if you were doing a quick glance you could be forgiven in thinking that there red and blue colours denote the opposite - and hence assume that less places saw price falls? Or is it just my paranoia?

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HOLA444

It is interesting how they use red on the map to show price RISES and blue to show price FALLS - which is the opposite to what you would expect.

As there are less price rises on the map if you were doing a quick glance you could be forgiven in thinking that there red and blue colours denote the opposite - and hence assume that less places saw price falls? Or is it just my paranoia?

No.

Every little trick in the book.

Edited by juvenal
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HOLA4412

A ticker currently showing over at the Bloomberg channel reads...

"House Prices plunge 2.7% as Rightmove forecasts a "challenging" 2012"....

and here is their article..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-19/u-k-house-prices-plunge-2-7-as-rightmove-forecasts-a-challenging-2012.html

U.K. Home Sellers Cut Property Asking Prices in December, Rightmove Says

U.K. home sellers cut asking prices in December, according to Rightmove Plc, which said the property market will remain “challenging” next year.

Average asking prices in England and Wales fell 2.7 percent from November to 225,766 pounds ($350,400), the operator of Britain’s biggest property website (RMV) said in a report in London today. On the year, prices rose 1.5 percent, and Rightmove said values may rise 2 percent in 2012, supported by a shortage of property for sale.

U.K. housing demand may remain under pressure as unemployment climbs to a 17-year high and the turmoil in Europe threatens to push the economy back into recession. Still, there won’t be a glut of sellers to undermine values, Rightmove said. It forecasts that about 1.2 million homes will be marketed for sale next year, a third of the amount available before the credit crisis hit in 2007.

“We have had a few years of testing the resilience of the bottom of the market,” Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said in a statement. “There remains a high level of uncertainty overhanging the market due to the ongoing euro-zone crisis.”

Eight of 10 regions in England and Wales tracked by Rightmove posted declines last month, led by a 6.2 percent drop in the South East. The North rose 0.9 percent.

Prices in London dropped 2.2 percent on the month, led by a 4.6 percent decline in both Brent and Croydon, and a 3.9 percent drop in Islington. Hounslow’s 4.5 percent increase was the biggest for London. Average prices in the capital were up 6.4 percent on the year, the most for any U.K. region.

No Collapse

The annual price gain for England and Wales is “perhaps a surprising performance given the challenging market,” Rightmove said. Though “2012 will be similarly challenging,” fewer homes for sale “will help underpin prices and stave off a price collapse.”

Unemployment as measured by International Labour Organization standards rose in the three months through October to 2.64 million, the most since 1994. Consumer confidence fell to a record low in October, Nationwide Building Society said last month.

Assessments of the outlook for selling prices point to little growth. Lloyds Banking Group Plc’s Halifax division said last week house prices will rise or fall by no more than 2 percent next year, as the market for residential property is torn between depressed demand and a shortage of supply.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research cut its forecast for 2012 home-price inflation last month to 1.6 percent from 2.4 percent, and said a shortage of properties will help push up values “only slowly.”

“In the event of a disorderly collapse of the euro zone then our predictions for 2012 will also be derailed,” Shipside said.

I wonder are the "experts" getting lined up ready to blame events in connection with the Euro, when all their predictions of rises or stability in our housing market are blown out of the water, now our long overdue hpc has finally started to arrive? :unsure:

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HOLA4413

This index has no seasonal adjustment. In this regard, the YoY measure is more meaningful than MoM. 1.5% higher than a year ago says it all really. The coffee is still brewing and has not yet been wafted in front of vendors' noses.

Wouldn't worry too much about that. You could equally say two more months of falls like this and we will go below the Jan 2009 low - such is the irrelevance of this index.

There are two types of sellers - those with a home on the market...and those who actually will sell. Unfortunately this index conflates the two.

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HOLA4414

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/feedarticle/10002138

"asking prices should rise by 2% in 2012".

if that's most optimistic RM's department of bullshine can be, then things are looking good for a full on crash next year.

desismileys_4555.gif

When you see +3% one month, -3% the next +3% the next you realise with asking prices you may as well Toss a coin.

What i dont understand is why asking prices are £220k or so, Sales prices £165k or so, and yet all these EAs claim to achieve >95% of asking. There must be a lot of price reductions on the sly :D

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HOLA4415

What i dont understand is why asking prices are £220k or so, Sales prices £165k or so, and yet all these EAs claim to achieve >95% of asking. There must be a lot of price reductions on the sly :D

Sales prices currently average £220,043 (that's the most recent figure from the LSL Acadametrics index, which is the only index to measure average sales prices. (Halifax, Nationwide and DCLG measure the price of the "average house", more like a median than a mean; Land Registry measure the geometric mean (also closer to the median than to the arithmetic mean)). So average sales prices and asking prices are not far adrift from each other.

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HOLA4416

Sales prices currently average £220,043 (that's the most recent figure from the LSL Acadametrics index, which is the only index to measure average sales prices. (Halifax, Nationwide and DCLG measure the price of the "average house", more like a median than a mean; Land Registry measure the geometric mean (also closer to the median than to the arithmetic mean)). So average sales prices and asking prices are not far adrift from each other.

And run by estate agents to produce manipulated VI propaganda!

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HOLA4417

Sales prices currently average £220,043 (that's the most recent figure from the LSL Acadametrics index, which is the only index to measure average sales prices. (Halifax, Nationwide and DCLG measure the price of the "average house", more like a median than a mean; Land Registry measure the geometric mean (also closer to the median than to the arithmetic mean)). So average sales prices and asking prices are not far adrift from each other.

Its not quite as simple as that - a major example is that the LR uses repeat sales regression. Also, if the LSL average was accurate then all the homes put on this month will sell and will sell for around 2% off their initial asking price.

Clearly this is not the case - hometrack puts the average selling price at around 92% of asking for a start (whether initial or final its not clear). Also many of these will be overpriced and will never sell and of those that do, many will have been reduced in the meantime.

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HOLA4418

Good quality houses may well continue to rise in value, just because there are still buyers out there and they are relatively scarce. So, for example, a nice, two or three storey terace in somewhere like Herne Hill, London, will probably continue to do reasonably well, because it's a great place to live, close to the city.

But for the rest of the more ordinary houses, e.g. new builds a few miles from the city centre, inner city terraces or semis, new build inner city flats and the like, I wonder how much the impact of the new rules on self cert mortgages will have on demand.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2074426/Number-self-employed-hits-20-year-high-jobless-accidental-entrepeneurs.html

We have 4.1 million self employed people already and of those, a massive 166,000 joined the ranks of the self employed between August and October 2011. These figures, according to the article, are from the ONS.

While I appreciate that the majority of those could well be people who want the DWP to stop hassling them and want their £2,000 for becoming self employed (moving back into employment, in other words) after a year without work, (the HMRC, in my experience, doesn't seem to hassle self employed people unless they suspect the business isn't legit), and these people are probably housing benefit beneficiaries, rather than candidates to buy a house, there would surely be a number of potential home buyers among the self employed ranks who now can't get finance.

What used to happen with self cert is that if you were declaring a low profit, you could still include as income things like child tax credits, working tax credits, child benefit, council tax credit (so though you didn't receive this, you still got the benefit of it) , the possible increase in this kind of income once you paid down your capital by using it as a deposit, - they would even take projected income into account, if for example you said you would be renting out a room or two to a lodger (worth about £4k a year tax free at the time). Also, if your low profit was solely because of carry forward losses, these could be "added back" to get a better picture of the actual income.

It seems under the new rules all that will count is the income you declare to the tax man.

It may well be that people buying the larger family homes are not affected by this, having already taken their profits as they climbed up the housing ladder, and able to take advantage of the government's latest pronouncement that buyers who already have a mortgage and now want to move shouldn't be deprived of a mortgage at decent rates by their current lender, provided they have managed their current mortgage well. But for the kinds of properties first time buyers buy and smaller properties in general, I would think a relatively weak market just got a whole lot weaker.

This is from the ESPC in Edinburgh:

http://www.espc.com/news-events/house-price-reports/2011/november

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HOLA4419

Good quality houses may well continue to rise in value, just because there are still buyers out there and they are relatively scarce

It's different for me cause my house is special.....heard that one before.

Total nonsense of course, the only reason top end houses prices are holding up are the low interest rates and people thinking they can afford them with their new low interest rate mortgages, nothing more, nothing less. Top end prices will eventually collapse further than anything else, mainly because their bubble has lasted longer and the equity in them can be used to offload them easier by the banks without them loosing out.

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It's different for me cause my house is special.....heard that one before.

Total nonsense of course, the only reason top end houses prices are holding up are the low interest rates and people thinking they can afford them with their new low interest rate mortgages, nothing more, nothing less. Top end prices will eventually collapse further than anything else, mainly because their bubble has lasted longer and the equity in them can be used to offload them easier by the banks without them loosing out.

The top end in Edinburgh so far seems to be holding up. One and two bedroom flats aren't faring very well, even down on the waterfront. Ex council houses, even in reasonable areas, are really suffering here pricewise. Dropping like a stone. Northern Rock used to lend on a lot of those kinds of homes up here. The one thing I can think of that could cause the prices to drop, especially at the top end, is if interest rates start going up.

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