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The "highly Resilient" Housing Market / Halifax Forcast


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The "highly resilient" housing market will not suffer a slump in 2012 as many

fear, but will instead remain subdued and stable, according to a forecast

released by Halifax today.

Despite the significant deterioration in the outlook for both the UK and global

economies, the housing market has held up with the current average sale price of

a house - at £161,731 - little changed from the end of last year.

The Halifax expects little movement in prices in 2012 - estimating a range of

between 2% and minus 2% - but with the market set to be strongest in London and

the South East there are further signs of a north/south divide in fortunes.

Halifax's outlook is based on Bank of England interest rates remaining at a

record low of 0.5% throughout 2012 and the positive impact this will have on

levels of forced selling and in mortgage affordability for home buyers.

Martin Ellis, Halifax's housing economist, said: "This resilience in the face

of very challenging economic conditions provides encouragement regarding the

prospects for next year."

The Halifax noted that the rate of mortgage affordability for new borrowers was

at its lowest point since 1997, having fallen from a peak of 48% of average

disposable earnings in 2007 to 26% in the third quarter of this year, which is

significantly below the average of 37% over the past 25 years.

Halifax said the favourable affordability position will help to keep down the

numbers of homeowners forced to sell their properties because they cannot keep

up with mortgage payments.

When the number of forced sellers is high, there is usually a sharp fall in

house prices, so this scenario is more likely to be avoided with an affordable

interest rate.

However, the Halifax warned that demand for housing will be constrained by the

weak economic growth and the prospect of high levels of unemployment led by

large-scale public sector job losses.

Pressure on household finances is also likely to be a factor in subdued demand

for housing, as families continue to keep a tight hold on their purse strings

and focus on reducing their debts.

Mr Ellis added: "Overall, we expect continuing broad stability in house prices

nationally during 2012. Prices are again likely to end the year at levels close

to where they begin with the market continuing to lack any real direction."

:D

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Meanwhile real inflation will be running at 10%+ ......

These comments are very blinkered...there is no realisation on their part the damage the low interest rate is doing to savers and long term decline of the housing market.

The housing market is broken...the only think that will fix it is a return to the "norm", higher interest rates, 3.5x average salary etc etc etc.....them with the money don't want to loose though.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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House prices are still rising by 15% in London

They will just keep going up and up and up......I think I heard that in 2007.

The big issue for the housing market now is that people buying now are doing so with record low interest rates.

If they now raise the rates...there will be carnage.

If they dont raise the rates...there will be carnage due to infalation.

Their short-termist election wining policy will destroy the country.

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They will just keep going up and up and up......I think I heard that in 2007.

The big issue for the housing market now is that people buying now are doing so with record low interest rates.

If they now raise the rates...there will be carnage.

If they dont raise the rates...there will be carnage due to infalation.

Their short-termist election wining policy will destroy the country.

The big issue is there are so few mortgages to be had. And those are vanishing too with the EU fiasco, increased capital reserve requirements and buyers lower savings but decreased Loans to Value mortgages.

Of course the property market is immune to all that. Magic money will appear from somewhere.

[not this time folks]

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Just ignore anything these supposed experts say. An examination of the number of times the word 'unexpected' is used to preface a piece of news regarding the housing market tells you these people know little if anything. Their predictions are consistently optimistic, talking of 'the bottom, recovery, stability' etc etc ad infinitum. The housing market is simply not going to rise for the forseeable future, end of. Even the frothiest VI could not push a convincing bull HPI case at the moment. It then becomes a case of 'pick a number between -100% and 0%'. VIs choose 0% as the least bad option.

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Meanwhile real inflation will be running at 10%+ ......

These comments are very blinkered...there is no realisation on their part the damage the low interest rate is doing to savers and long term decline of the housing market.

The housing market is broken...the only think that will fix it is a return to the "norm", higher interest rates, 3.5x average salary etc etc etc.....them with the money don't want to loose though.

Plus pension annuities at a record low at the same time as high inflation

someone with a £100,000 pot would have got an annual income of £7,855 in the summer of 2008, but now would only receive £6,201 a year. This example relates to a level, single life annuity which pays an equal income amount until death. However, rates for annuities which are linked to the stock market have also dropped. Moreover the average UK pension pot of around £30,000 is nowhere near this illustrative level of £100,000

http://www.annuity-rates.org/annuity-rates-fall-to-a-record-low-2480/

Average pot now gets a £1,860 pension - don't spend it all at once. Of course the B of E would have us believe that every pensioner owns a house outright, so they are loaded.

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The housing market is 'highly resilient' or the housing market is highly sponsored? Take away the most mind-bogglingly extreme props this nation has ever witnessed and that's your resilience taken care of. The last time interest rates were this low it was considered sensible to treat a headache by getting a neighbour with a steady hand to drill a hole in your skull.

Extremely p*ssed off with it all these days. Not in a Christmas mood at all.

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Just ignore anything these supposed experts say. An examination of the number of times the word 'unexpected' is used to preface a piece of news regarding the housing market tells you these people know little if anything. Their predictions are consistently optimistic, talking of 'the bottom, recovery, stability' etc etc ad infinitum. The housing market is simply not going to rise for the forseeable future, end of. Even the frothiest VI could not push a convincing bull HPI case at the moment. It then becomes a case of 'pick a number between -100% and 0%'. VIs choose 0% as the least bad option.

+1

During the last recession (80s/90s) the Halifax relentlessly predicted a 5% increase at the beginning of each year as house prices fell each year and year on year.

A 0% prediction by the Halifax is right in housing doom territory.

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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