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Nijo

Betfair

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I've seen a couple of posters over the last few days refer to the money they make on Betfair. I'm curious to know more....

I have an account and have been dabbling, but it's play money so I tend to make about 50p a week. Not really enough to give up my day job. :)

As far as I can tell you need to find results that are becoming more likely and take advantage of lag in the market (as an example, Flintoff winning the Sports Personality award, or last week the CDU winning the German election).

Day 1: Odds are 1.15... bet on this happening

Day 2: Odds are 1.04... bet against this happening

I've done this a few times, notably on IR decisions, F1 results and Cricket results... but these are low frequency events and no place to make money.

- What type of events do you trade on? Stuff like horses & football or daily FTSE changes?

- Do you have expert knowledge of the market or do you rely on indicators?

- Do you look for odds of 1000, 100, 10 or 1.1 to start with?

- How can you auto trade this? How can software know which way a market is going? Or maybe you look for sub-100% totals and bet on everything?

Sorry for the noobness. :unsure:

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Mmmm, possible but I don't think you can make a living doing that.

It might be that people are betting and laying on different exchanges, taking advantage of unmatched prices in the markets. Flintoff is 1.06 here, 1.05 there... so bet and lay respectively and make a 1% profit.

Hmmm.

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I've seen a couple of posters over the last few days refer to the money they make on Betfair. I'm curious to know more....

I have an account and have been dabbling, but it's play money so I tend to make about 50p a week. Not really enough to give up my day job. :)

As far as I can tell you need to find results that are becoming more likely and take advantage of lag in the market (as an example, Flintoff winning the Sports Personality award, or last week the CDU winning the German election).

Day 1: Odds are 1.15... bet on this happening

Day 2: Odds are 1.04... bet against this happening

I've done this a few times, notably on IR decisions, F1 results and Cricket results... but these are low frequency events and no place to make money.

- What type of events do you trade on? Stuff like horses & football or daily FTSE changes?

- Do you have expert knowledge of the market or do you rely on indicators?

- Do you look for odds of 1000, 100, 10 or 1.1 to start with?

- How can you auto trade this? How can software know which way a market is going? Or maybe you look for sub-100% totals and bet on everything?

Sorry for the noobness. :unsure:

Alot of people lose money on betfair but some people do may make a living from it.

You need at least 1 year trading paper money and watching the markets very closely to watch trends and learn the concept of on-line betting. Never gamble for fun, this is what 90% of the market is based on. They are called MUG punters. The other 10% is professional gamblers who make a living. If you think you have what it takes then you can do it as the means are there and available. It requires alot of time and constant anlysis of stats. For example, a horse might be backed at 1.05 for £5000 but gets pipped on the line. Thats alot of money to lose to make 5%. But the guy who took the bet made 5K in a 2 minute race for only £250. Without taking the data from the race you'll never know this. Some races have 2 horses that are traded at odds-on. This means if you had say for example an order of £10 @1.51 and both got taken because 2 horses traded at this price then you are a winner no matter what because only 1 horse wins.

There's alot to learn from this new industry and one that is well worth investigating with an open mind.

An addictive personality would probably fail within a year and be bankrupt.

Good luck.

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Alot of people lose money on betfair but some people do may make a living from it.

You need at least 1 year trading paper money and watching the markets very closely to watch trends and learn the concept of on-line betting. Never gamble for fun, this is what 90% of the market is based on. They are called MUG punters. The other 10% is professional gamblers who make a living. If you think you have what it takes then you can do it as the means are there and available. It requires alot of time and constant anlysis of stats. For example, a horse might be backed at 1.05 for £5000 but gets pipped on the line. Thats alot of money to lose to make 5%. But the guy who took the bet made 5K in a 2 minute race for only £250. Without taking the data from the race you'll never know this. Some races have 2 horses that are traded at odds-on. This means if you had say for example an order of £10 @1.51 and both got taken because 2 horses traded at this price then you are a winner no matter what because only 1 horse wins.

There's alot to learn from this new industry and one that is well worth investigating with an open mind.

An addictive personality would probably fail within a year and be bankrupt.

Good luck.

I know a few people who make a living from this because it's related to my line. It takes a lot of self-discipline, knowledge and intelligence. It's also quite dull, most of the time and can be pretty hard work.

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I make my living backing and laying horses on Betfair, rarely betting on other sports or events. I use a combination of form study (which I've been doing for over 20 years, and still have lots to learn) and systems, which is basically analysing statistics (and annoys the form study purists :P )

The 2 most essential characteristics IMHO are discipline and patience. You should never have a bet for the sake of it, or because you didn't have one yesterday, I sometimes go 2-3 weeks where there's nothing I really want to bet on.

I also find it very important to operate your betting like a business, i.e. you have a betting bank (working capital) and you keep profit/loss figures for every bet you make from it. There are always good and bad patches, but if you have the records to study then you get a feel for when it's time to reduce your bets, or even take a break, and when to lump on.

Another area which is becoming popular is trading, where you back a horse then lay the bet back when the price has shortened. I've just started looking at this but it takes a lot of study and monitoring to learn how to read the market direction, and I'm certainly a rank beginner ATM.

Finally, don't expect it to be an easy life, I spend around 5 hours/day average reading form, updating records and starting records for new ideas, etc.

Sorry it's a bit longwinded :)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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