bears all Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 "GDP growth in the third quarter is likely to have been very weak or even negative," said Jonathan Loynes, chief UK economist at Capital Economics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 WOW! Where did you find that quote? Mainstream press I hope! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bears all Posted October 12, 2005 Author Share Posted October 12, 2005 WOW! Where did you find that quote? Mainstream press I hope! It's in the Independent story in the newsblog today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 Thanks bears all, Lots of contradictory data in there. That should keep the MPC guessing!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zorn Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 "GDP growth in the third quarter is likely to have been very weak or even negative," said Jonathan Loynes, chief UK economist at Capital Economics Sorry, that's not a recession sighting, as a recession is normally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, not one quarter of very weak growth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Pirata Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 Sorry, that's not a recession sighting, as a recession is normally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, not one quarter of very weak growth. Well to have 2, you have to have 1 first. So it could be the first sighting. Duh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bears all Posted October 12, 2005 Author Share Posted October 12, 2005 Sorry, that's not a recession sighting, as a recession is normally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, not one quarter of very weak growth. I know that, but it's the first time I've heard any serious commentator suggest that the current quarter might be "even negative" so I thought it was worth recording. Looking back a year, hardly anyone in the mainstream press was going with the crash / slump scenario; then as HP growth tumbled you had first one person floating it as a possibility then another until eventually it became accepted as a serious risk. Even congenital optimists like Kaletsky and Hamish MacRae have jumped on the bandwagon. So it might be with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apom Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 The components for the recession have had their effect already.. over the last eight years we have seen manufacturing finished of by the strong pound. the Dot com bubble. Massive unemplotment rises. How has this not been relised. Debt Based consumer spending and massive public sector job increases. both of those factors hid the economy from the recession that should have happened years ago.. but it did it with money that was borrowed and is now being paid back.. the recession is time lagged, can't be avoided and here now. going to hurt.. But as someone who saw the electronics industry die in 1999 and lost his job then.. (well.. got a new one before I did..) I have just presumed that eventually the debt would notsustain us.. and infact hurt us worse.. I ramble.. I make the same points.. and this forrum.. Well it keeps me sane.. That, to me is its greatest asset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van hoogstraten Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 Which sector of the economy is still growing then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zorn Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 The components for the recession have had their effect already.. over the last eight years we have seen manufacturing finished of by the strong pound. Indeed, UK manufacturing output has been so effectively "finished off" over the past eight years that it has increased between Q2 1997 and Q2 2005, although admittedly only by around 1%. Manufacturing employment has fallen a lot, of course, due to increased efficiency, but the demise of UK manufacturing has been greatly exaggerated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apom Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 Indeed, UK manufacturing output has been so effectively "finished off" over the past eight years that it has increased between Q2 1997 and Q2 2005, although admittedly only by around 1%. Manufacturing employment has fallen a lot, of course, due to increased efficiency, but the demise of UK manufacturing has been greatly exaggerated. ahha.. maufacturing by uk owned companies..? lol.. don't believe all the stats... live it.. see the ripples... Every electronic factory in the south west.. Devon, dorset cornwall.. all closed.. every factory not food related.. closed.. If its growing.. well not here.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest growl Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 There she blows. Thats one whale of a recession sighted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashCrash Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 Well to have 2, you have to have 1 first. So it could be the first sighting. Duh! yeah, if you can count :angry: Indeed, UK manufacturing output has been so effectively "finished off" over the past eight years that it has increased between Q2 1997 and Q2 2005, although admittedly only by around 1%. Manufacturing employment has fallen a lot, of course, due to increased efficiency, but the demise of UK manufacturing has been greatly exaggerated. even if we go buy your stats, its not a good one is it ? 1% growth over 8 years - well done manufacturing sector Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PMTension Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 I don't imagine this will help the price of oil: Gas, oil pipelines attacked in northern Iraq AFX News Limited Gas, oil pipelines attacked in northern Iraq 10.12.2005, 10:41 AM KIRKURK (AFX) - A gas and two oil pipelines have been set ablaze by attacks in northern Iraq, said an industry source who could not determine how exports would be affected. 'A mortar shell fell at dawn on an oil complex west of Kirkuk,' a disputed oil-hub that Kurds want as capital of their autonomous region, said an official at the Northern Oil Company. 'The fire caught first in a gas pipeline linking northern fields to the refinery in Baiji and then spread to two oil pipelines.' The installations lay within a protected zone, which was why the attackers used mortar fire, added the source who wished to remain anonymous. He said the pipelines were part of a network that delivers Iraqi oil to a Turkish terminal at Ceyhan on the Mediterranean. It was not possible, however, to evaluate the impact on oil exports, which are sporadic in the best of times from northern Iraq. 'No one knows when the fires will be brought under control,' the source said. Such acts of sabotage occur regularly in northern Iraq, where insurgents seek to disrupt crucial oil shipments to Turkey. str-mh/wai/al/ec Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Once in a lifetime Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 Sorry, that's not a recession sighting, as a recession is normally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, not one quarter of very weak growth. Problem is... the figures go through NuLabour’s economic calculating computer! It’s the same one they use to calculate inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwickshire Lad Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 Problem is... the figures go through NuLabour’s economic calculating computer! It’s the same one they use to calculate inflation. that's funny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuyingBear Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 Problem is... the figures go through NuLabour’s economic calculating computer! It’s the same one they use to calculate inflation. And the unemployment stats, look at the ONS today, benefit claimants up, unemployment down! The inflation figures are insidious not only because they keep wage or pension settlements down (in the private sector at least) but because they also distort the GDP figures and the way we measure growth. People think inflation is just about controlling the wage/prices spiral, not the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 Sky News Business. Jobs continued to be lost in manufacturing, down by 99,000 in the three months to August compared with a year earlier, to a record low of 3.2 m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 BBC Business. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said today the UK economy is expected to grow at a slower-than-expected pace this year, but there is no need for more RATE CUTS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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