KingBingo Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Yes sentiment is turning. Six months ago i would post on estateagenttoday that prices had to come down and the reasons why and I was subject to the most prolific barrage of vile hate posts and abuse you could imagine. They were lining up to tell me I was a moron, and that clearly property was far too complex for me to understand. Six months later and everything I said has happened, or is in the process of happening. And know while the EAs themselves are still unnecessarily vile and offensive they are all boasting about how they know that prices are falling and will be for a couple of years at least. Zero acknowledgement that they have completely reversed their position of course, the lack of self awareness is quite staggering, but nevertheless, it is amazing to see them go from bull to bear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingBingo Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I hear the same - baby boomer teachers (aaaargh) asking me why don't I get on the ladder before prices go back up 'back up where' i ask '2007 prices' they say 'but that lasted all of 18 months' say I 'so it is not back up anywhere, that was not the norm' and then they get all flumoxed 'well I bought a house in 1985 and bricks and mortar always did me well' etc etc Dear Heavens, trying to explain to a teacher that there is more than one type of inflation and that they need wage inflation to make what they describe work, which is different to HPI which is different to imported food and energy inflation etc.....Nightmare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeordieAndy Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I think property prices have to get back to the long term 3.5x average earnings before people will even think about trying to get back into the property market and the correction could overshoot like these things often do to 2.5x average earnings. By my crude calculations that would make the average house £70,000 maximum which would be about a 60% drop from peak - 25% drop in my area so far... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porca misèria Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I really expect to see a massive credit crunch kick off (unless the Euro thing blows over!) starting in January, Feb. So, houses will get cheaper but for cash buyers mainly. And what about us council tenants? Yay, 50% off!! ('sorry there are no mortgages available, it's the credit crunch you see...') It's a good 'good news, bad news' joke innit. Hmmm .... I have an idea for a dating website ... Cash-rich landless peasant would like to meet council tenant with right to buy for affordable home ownership. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'Bart' Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 although perhaps there are still small pockets of denialists? I'm sure there are a fair sized number who think of the current crisis as being another recession (like the early 90s). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libspero Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Certainly the latest entry on the Agents Diary blog would suggest things are coming to a bit of a head. I used to resent agents during the boom for continually talking the market up. I pity them now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairies Wear Boots Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Perhaps most important is meeja sentiment. Look at the unanimity over Monday's announcement (not to mention the comments on these): Ian Cowie in the Torygraph: You really could not make it up. Government proposals for taxpayers to underwrite looser mortgage lending for first time buyers may help buy-to-let landlords exit the housing market with handsome profits before house prices fall further. But they are unlikely to be of lasting benefit to anyone encouraged to take on excessive debt before interest rates rise from their current historic low and more homebuyers find themselves in negative equity. Mary Ann Sieghart in the Independent: The one thing missing from today's housing strategy will be an outright acknowledgment that lower house prices would be a good thing. It's still too much of a political taboo. But ministers know that it's exactly what the younger generation need. So do prospective buyers and their parents. Matt Griffith in the Grauniad: While some of the initiatives – notably the government's pledge to provide insurance for mortgages to new-build properties – are the equivalent of an intergenerational mugging: the state underwrites young people taking on a huge debt for an asset that is clearly overvalued. I find those comments quite interesting. Journo's knocking high house prices. However, the government's pledge to provide insurance, provides another prop for the housing market. ZIRP and money printing seems to be doing a good job so far. It might be destroying the economy, by destroying peoples purchasing power and retailers are starting to feel the squeeze, but house prices haven't dropped much. And I'm not sure why with the base rate staying where it has been for ages, that prices will start falling drastically in this climate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairies Wear Boots Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 (edited) Duplicate removal. Edited November 23, 2011 by Fairies Wear Boots Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
council dweller Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Hmmm .... I have an idea for a dating website ... Cash-rich landless peasant would like to meet council tenant with right to buy for affordable home ownership. Actually that's a great idea porca, pick it up and run with it! Personally I'm sweating a good deal as I'm relying on the strong Yen.....it's the gamble of a life time for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shell Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Apart from wherever the cat is, that sounds like a list of buy signals for the smart money Oh the cat bit tickles me so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I have an idea for a dating website ... Does anyone dare to refer to themselves as 'Bricks chicks' any more, or have they all slunk away? Chicks with bricks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 This is the problem for us isn't it - if and when a bank repossesses a property they basically move it to a rental division and rent it out thereby keeping both rents and house prices high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrWallace Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 No. House prices are not share prices. Confuse the two and you are f00ked. Completely agree, I'm loading up on shares at the moment. I'm looking for solid companies with strong balance sheets that have a good history of paying dividends. In particular I want natural resources (oil and miners) and high-tec companies (i.e. Microsoft etc...). It's best to get those companies when nobody wants to own them so I'll be staying away from the likes of Apple, not because they have a bad product but because they're just too damn popular with investors at the moment. In the short-term, the price you pay for a share depends on the public mood on the day you buy it, in the long-term the value of the company will determine the price of the share. The time to buy property is once it has been falling for sometime and everyone believes the value of property will just keep going lower because it has been going lower and lower for ages. We're only now at the START of this process with property. Saying that I do jointly own a place, but I do believe house prices need to fall, all that money being tied up in something that is pretty much non-productive is bad for the economy, and it isn't right for hard working young people who just want to get a decent roof over their heads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superted187 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Not sure if you guys were aware, but Matt Griffith is one of the leaders of Priced Out - it looks like they got him in as he is versed on the subject. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.