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Britain's Coldest Winter For Decade. Met Office Forecast.


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HOLA441

Is this really how soft and namby-pamby we have become in this country ?

How totally incapable of looking after ourselves without blaming everyone and everything, this time because it might get cold in winter, well boo-hoo.

Just put a bleedin jumper on fer gods sake.

Hi,

I hear you. The point of the debate was not to scare monger about BBC reporting (which is far from great), unpredicable long-term weather forecasting or cold weather (that is not a problem, I personally have lived through several -40C canadian winters in the past, it's not difficult).

The worrying thing is that we have no energy reserves (or very little Gold reserves for that matter). For the government to be holding a conference on it, the energy minister be making statements and the CBI to be making comments is more than something to just be dismissed. Short-termism seems to be permeating every facet of our economy at the moment, it's not just credit card debt and interest-only mortgages on unsustainably valued housing. The economy is bieng severely mismananged, energy is just another example in my mind. It's just an observation that seems to follow a general trend under Gordon of 'live for today, forget tomorrow'. There appears to be no shock absorbers built into our pecarious economy. Think about that when you are an FTB repaying 60% of your salary every month on mortgage interest to a bank. Things can change quickly and if you have no provision for a safety net, you are in a difficult position. That is the gist of the La Fontaine faible of 'The Ant and the Cricket' we have all read at some point or another. Or you can choose to believe that house prices always go up so everything is fine, you don't need to build any safety nets into your finances. It's just another viewpoint to consider.

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HOLA442

This is pure speculation and don't they say this every year? I'll run around my high street naked if we get more than one week's snow covered ground in London. I'd wager it will be a very mild and extremely wet winter this year.

A week! When was the last time that snow lay in London for more than a few hours?

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HOLA443

Here's a report from the BBC, Oct 2004:

Cold winter due, says forecaster

Metcheck.com senior forecaster Andrew Bond said: "From what we are predicting, Britain could see its coldest winter of the century so far.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3738824.stm

Last winter was the 6th warmest in 77 years. Long range forecasts are a load of rubbish. The weather systems are chaotic and can't be predicted months in advance.

Edited by clv101
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HOLA444

Here's a report from the BBC, Oct 2004:

Last winter was the 6th warmest in 77 years. Long range forecasts are a load of rubbish. The weather systems are chaotic and can't be predicted months in advance.

Hi,

Yes. And we have hardly any energy reserves. Doesn't that bother you? Doesn't that make you curious as to why we hold a quarter of the reserves of other nations at a time when long term energy prices are rising. Why is that? Why is the cabinet spending a large amount of tax payers money trying to find some kind of fix if something happens to energy supplies like a super cold winter (increased demand) or disruption to supplies (like Katrina or something kicking off in the mid east)? Could be that the economy is balancing on a knife edge. Holding energy stocks costs alot of money to a nation's finances, especially if it is one that is stretced to the limit. That is why energy reserves have been run down. We already have a gaping trade and budget defecit and consumer indebtedness stretched to the limit. The figures are reported every week. So, the article, with its reference to our poker-playing strategy to energy, highlights the knife edge position of the economy. There is absolutely zero room now to absorb any outward shocks. mainly, IMHO, because of the orgy of speculative debt in the housing market that is threatening the economy. Just in the same way that Holland's housing market slumped their economy before their HPC. And they are major producer of natural gas, self sufficient. You can choose to think about these things or bury your head in the sand. In the long term the renewable energy reserves are there, its just the economics of convenience. If you are FTB'ing, its just another factor in the equation to cost into your financial safety net before we reach a position of rebalance in our economy. Which has to happen sometime in the next few years. Whether by high wage inflation or HPC. If you are paying 40-50% plus of your salary each month in mortgage repayments, you have no safety net. Its just a consideration.

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HOLA445

Hi,

Yes. And we have hardly any energy reserves. Doesn't that bother you? Doesn't that make you curious as to why we hold a quarter of the reserves of other nations at a time when long term energy prices are rising.

Urm... yes! Have you read my articles on this subject, especially the August one?

Aug 27th UK Gas and Electricity Crisis Looming

Oct 9th UK Energy Part 1: The Winter Outlook

Oct 9th UK Energy Part 2: 2005 Quarter 2 Update

I'm just pointing out here that long range weather forecasting is hopelessly inaccurate and there is no way of knowing today if this coming winter will turn out to be the warmest or coldest on record or somewhere between.

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HOLA446
6
HOLA447

If there was any kind of serious gas shortage, I imagine that some of the old mothballed fuel oil-fired power stations would be brought out of retirement. If environmental regulations were relaxed, they would be able to burn high-sulphur fuel oil, which Russia is chucking out in vast amounts. End of shortage.

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HOLA448

Don't we have the option of plugging one(serveral) of our Nuclear Subs into the grid??? - I'm sure this was mentioned during my time at uni.

(Marine Engineering)

edit: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/4132635.stm

Update: From reading around, the UK Trafalgar class has a PWR1 powerplant with approx 70MW of output.

The Russia submarine Kursk had 2 powerplants of 190MW each = 380MW.

The new Roll-Royce PWR2 powerplants (fitted to the newest subs) are producting 6 time the PWR1 power = 420MW.

UK peak demand in winter has been up to 53GW. At present, we have available 20 GW of gas-fired plant, 10 GW of available nuclear, 1 GW pumped storage and possibly 2 GW via the France connector, a total of (20+10+1+2) = 33GW plus up to 27GW of traditional coal-fired plant inherited from the CEGB

:blink:

Okay some big numbers are now appearing.. :o Time to buy M&S shares?? Will jumpers be this years must have gift :P

Edited by kinesin
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HOLA449

I remember the winter of 62/63 very well.

Long Johns were certainly the order of the day. :(

bagpath_snow_1963_320.jpg

Hi,

Yes, clearing that off your drive every morning could become a bit weary after a while. So anyway, I think that Gordy needs to go find some money to fill up the refinery contingency stocks backup again. He is flat broke, the tax receipts arent coming in what with economic growth collapsing and worse, his overdraft is getting bigger everyday in the form of the trade and budget defecits. My hunch is that he was selling off the contingency oil and gas stocks over the past couple of years to massage the books a bit. I am going into the garden now to chop some fire wood. Humm, wonder how much a horse costs nowadays .....

Boomer

:P

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HOLA4410
Guest Bart of Darkness
I bet the BBC would bloody love it if it was freezing...more people watching telly.

Let's just hope that the power stays on.

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HOLA4411

If there was any kind of serious gas shortage, I imagine that some of the old mothballed fuel oil-fired power stations would be brought out of retirement. If environmental regulations were relaxed, they would be able to burn high-sulphur fuel oil, which Russia is chucking out in vast amounts. End of shortage.

The installed capacity of oil-fired plant in the UK never was that great. Coal was always the predominant source of fuel for electricity generation prior to the 90's dash for gas. Yes, there is some capacity that could be returned to service but it's not something you do in a couple of weeks. It could be ready in time for next Summer though but that's a bit late.

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HOLA4412

I've signed it about 6 or so times, so far. Job at a BT DQ, applications to various jobs, getting married

Why did you have to sign the official secrets act when you got married...

Maybe it's a secret though and you can't say :huh:

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HOLA4413

The installed capacity of oil-fired plant in the UK never was that great. Coal was always the predominant source of fuel for electricity generation prior to the 90's dash for gas. Yes, there is some capacity that could be returned to service but it's not something you do in a couple of weeks. It could be ready in time for next Summer though but that's a bit late.

Hi,

Yes, again, energy sources are another, bigger topic. This article is really about the holding of contingency stocks of oil and gas. Soemthing that all countries have to do, whether they have gas and oil and uranium and hydro or nothing at all. You still need power, even if you buy it in. That's not so much the issue. This issue is that most of our european neigbours have stock piles 4-6 times higher than ours. Our stockpiles are very low in international comparison. That is most probably because Gordy has been selling it off over the last couple of years to try and mask how bad the debt ridden economy is. Sourcing new energy reserves is a much bigger and marginally related subject.

Anyway, I am going to search on ebay for a horse and a wood furnace.

Boomer

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HOLA4414

Hi,

Yes, again, energy sources are another, bigger topic. This article is really about the holding of contingency stocks of oil and gas. Soemthing that all countries have to do, whether they have gas and oil and uranium and hydro or nothing at all. You still need power, even if you buy it in. That's not so much the issue. This issue is that most of our european neigbours have stock piles 4-6 times higher than ours. Our stockpiles are very low in international comparison. That is most probably because Gordy has been selling it off over the last couple of years to try and mask how bad the debt ridden economy is. Sourcing new energy reserves is a much bigger and marginally related subject.

Anyway, I am going to search on ebay for a horse and a wood furnace.

Boomer

Agreed. My point was that restarting oil oil-fired power plants isn't a solution to the problem in the short term. That is, the existence of such plants doesn't overcome the lack of gas storage if a shortage develops due to the time it would take to get these plants running.

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HOLA4415

If there was any kind of serious gas shortage, I imagine that some of the old mothballed fuel oil-fired power stations would be brought out of retirement. If environmental regulations were relaxed, they would be able to burn high-sulphur fuel oil, which Russia is chucking out in vast amounts. End of shortage.

There is about 2.1GW of mothballed plant assumed to come back into service this winter if required. However, as was pointed out by responses to Ofgems consultation this shouldn't be assumed. The investment required to bring the plant back into service will only be made by the private energy company if they know it's worth their while, if they know several months before hand that there is a market for their marginal supply at high enough prices to cover the cost of putting into service.

Given how liquid and variable the energy market is in the UK thanks to privatisation those timely market signals aren't present so the required investments aren't being made.

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HOLA4416
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HOLA4417

I remember the winter of 62/63 very well.

Long Johns were certainly the order of the day. :(

My family moved from England to Scotland in 1962, because dad got a job (as a weather forecaster :lol:) on ships based on the Clyde.

I was only 7 at the time, but I've got a vague memory that the 62/63 winter in Western Scotland (Argyll) was actually quite mild.

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HOLA4418
18
HOLA4419

i dont remember that 63 winter. i was merely wheatgerm back then.

but i dont also remember being able to wear a t-shirt on the 16th october before.

wasnt october supposed to be colder ?

at this rate daffodils will be coming out.

I agree it's far too warm during Autumn and Winter nowadays. I for one would love it to be icy cold with a thick covering of snow during winter, beautiful and invigorating.

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HOLA4420

Two years ago on the 3rd of November I stood at the top of Watkins pass on Snowden. Not a cloud in the sky and it was lovely and warm. The weather is certainly strange. Im in my early thirties and remember as a kid thick frosts and very cold winters.

If the UK climate keeps warming I fear the effects will be severe. The melting of glaciers could cool the gulf stream causing our climate to become much colder. Ironicly Global warming could create a much cooler UK climate.

Just imagine Polar Bears in the back garden :o Or the next boom market. Skidoo sales :lol:

Mr Joe.

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HOLA4421

last january i took on the job of painting the outside of a large shopping centre.

i never missed a day becuase of the weather, this was the first time in years ive been able to do painting outside at that time of year.

i miss the crisp cold mornings, i think the coldest winter ive known was 1984 in aberdeenshire in scotland, the roads were like bobsleigh tracks as the ploughs pushed more and more snow to 8 - 10 foot high to the sides of the road.and it stayed like this for at least a month.Im sure someone there at the time remember this year.

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