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chris25

Very Cold Winter Or Very Mild Winter On The Way

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Hello all.

The past months and years I have watched the weather daily, and have noticed the evolution of weather synoptics.

The increasing pattern over the past 3 years has been this:

- The traditional weather system of Atlantic lows bringing in heavy rain bands followed by showery north westerlies seem to far less prevalent than they used to be. Especially when compared to the early 2000's when Autumn was dominated by ferocious depressions that caused significant flooding all over the UK.

- High pressure systems are now becoming more common than low pressure setups.

- These high pressure systems are getting "blocked" in position. "Blocked" weather systems used to be relatively rare, and would result in exceptional weather for exceptionally long periods. With winds from exotic locations; normal direct southerlies resulting in a continuous feed of Saharan air or direct easterlies resulting in a continuous feed of freezing air from Siberia/Russia.

It is in my belief that this pattern will continue.

However I believe that the current exceptional block we are in at the moment (resulting in a continuous feed of air from North Africa) will break down within the next two weeks. When this happens we could be in for a good old cold spell.

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Thanks for the update. I will keep an eye on the weather in 2 weeks time. Your forecasts were very informative the last 2 years, so I look forward to any future statements.

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However I believe that the current exceptional block we are in at the moment (resulting in a continuous feed of air from North Africa) will break down within the next two weeks. When this happens we could be in for a good old cold spell.

This guy uses a different method from yourself. He's got a very good track record apparently.

He reckons we're in for one of the coldest winters ever. I really hope he is wrong.

He said: “If it follows the pattern of 1812-13, it will be mild up to as late as December 21. This is what happened in 1962. It was mild until Christmas Eve then we had an appalling winter.”

Now he fears this winter could be as cold as that of 1812-13 – when freezing temperatures forced Napoleon to retreat from Moscow during his attempt to seize the Russian capital when day-time temperatures reached no more than -9C.

http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1464867_brrr-ace-yourselves-amateur-weatherman-predicts-ice-age-winter-for-greater-manchester

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Forecasting the weather is like forecasting the economy. There's a load of people who shout very loudly about their predicitions.

Then the event happens. The people who are rigtht shout about how great their predictive skills are. The people who are wrong go mysteriously quiet.

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He reckons we're in for one of the coldest winters ever. I really hope he is wrong.

Me too, although this year I've really stocked up. Most of the time I run a variation on the JIT (Just In Time) system as far as stocks of food go and this led to me being badly caught out last year.

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I don't believe any forecast that is anything more than 10-14 days. More than that is 99.9 % guesswork IMO.

Weather does certainly appear to be different from your 'average' year. Then again - I don't think there is anything such as an average year.

Chris - cheers for the Wetterzentralle link. That is a class site. I dont look at anything beyond the 9 day window though. Far too variable. Up to that point though they seem very accurate. I wouldnt trust the BBC forecast more than 2 days.

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No way. You're saying that it could get cold in December?? Whatever next! ;)

yeah, but, its the wrong sort of cold.

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Looking at this up-to-date record of sunspot activity, I don't see anything particularly unusual happening at the moment. There seems to be quite a lot of variation in the height of solar maxima.

It's also very hard to make out any sort of correlation with the rise in global temperatures observed over the last few decades.

Zurich_Color_Small.jpg

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Looking at this up-to-date record of sunspot activity, I don't see anything particularly unusual happening at the moment. There seems to be quite a lot of variation in the height of solar maxima.

It's also very hard to make out any sort of correlation with the rise in global temperatures observed over the last few decades.

Zurich_Color_Small.jpg

I thought that the last minimum was the deepest for some time, and that data seems to support it.

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You can put all your fancy pants graphs and prediction to one side. I can guarantee that we are going to have a mild winter with no snow or frost at all.

I am certain of this because I bought some winter tyres for the car. My £600 investment is still sitting in the shed, and I have no doubt it is the sole cause of the mild weather we are currnently experiencing.

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I thought that the last minimum was the deepest for some time, and that data seems to support it.

A touch longer, maybe, but you can't really get any deeper than the spot-free months that are observed at every minimum. Interestingly, or perhaps not, 2010 was also (globally) the hottest year every recorded according to NASA data.

Edit: Though admittedly cold in Europe, but I doubt there's much significance to be read from that. In 1963, for example, there was an exceptionally cold winter in the UK, and that was just after a particularly high solar maximum.

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You can put all your fancy pants graphs and prediction to one side. I can guarantee that we are going to have a mild winter with no snow or frost at all.

I am certain of this because I bought some winter tyres for the car. My £600 investment is still sitting in the shed, and I have no doubt it is the sole cause of the mild weather we are currnently experiencing.

I've got a couple of sacks of rocksalt, and covers for both the cars.

The supermarkets are full of snow shovels and rock salt (at wildly inflated prices)

The local council salt depot is full to bursting.

The Daily Express is forecasting a -20C hyperfreeze in two weeks, every 2 weeks.

Conclusion: No snow. (Note, this is reality, the weather could be wrong)

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You can put all your fancy pants graphs and prediction to one side. I can guarantee that we are going to have a mild winter with no snow or frost at all.

I am certain of this because I bought some winter tyres for the car. My £600 investment is still sitting in the shed, and I have no doubt it is the sole cause of the mild weather we are currnently experiencing.

q:..how do you fit them...do you have a couple of tyre angles and a handpump?

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You can put all your fancy pants graphs and prediction to one side. I can guarantee that we are going to have a mild winter with no snow or frost at all.

I am certain of this because I bought some winter tyres for the car. My £600 investment is still sitting in the shed, and I have no doubt it is the sole cause of the mild weather we are currnently experiencing.

Much like my stocking up this year, rather than last.

I'll be sick of beans by summer.

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I don't know, you think maybe people expect a harsh winter just because we had one last time round? I'm inclined to assume the opposite.

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I've got a couple of sacks of rocksalt, and covers for both the cars.

The supermarkets are full of snow shovels and rock salt (at wildly inflated prices)

The local council salt depot is full to bursting.

The Daily Express is forecasting a -20C hyperfreeze in two weeks, every 2 weeks.

Conclusion: No snow. (Note, this is reality, the weather could be wrong)

You could be right. Everyone seems to be planning for it. Do we ever do that well in the UK. :lol:

Not very scientific but when predicting the long term weather old wives tales are probably just as reliable

IIRC, winter tyres are more effective than "all season" type tyres in temperatures below 10˚C so you could probably be using them now.

Problem being even in Edinburgh tomorrow it is expected to be about 14C. :o

IIRC winter tyres advantage is about 6C or below ? Even if you are only driving at night they probably are not worth sticking on yet.

Still - long way to go. Apart from the last 2 years the couple before that all got colder and had more snow etc. (Up North) at the end rather than the start of the winter.

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♫ They said it would it would snow at Christmas ♫ end of October!

The UK is at the centre of five weather systems, the blocking pattern which has given us the last bad winters may not happen this year as they are caused by sunspots.

At the moment it is still a bit mild (oil seed rape is in its fifth week of flowering near me). It wouldn't surprise me if we have a mild winter and very little snow.

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You can put all your fancy pants graphs and prediction to one side. I can guarantee that we are going to have a mild winter with no snow or frost at all.

I am certain of this because I bought some winter tyres for the car. My £600 investment is still sitting in the shed, and I have no doubt it is the sole cause of the mild weather we are currnently experiencing.

I've done the same and find myself thinking 'I'm going to be mightily farked off if we don't have some truly atrocious weather'

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I've done the same and find myself thinking 'I'm going to be mightily farked off if we don't have some truly atrocious weather'

If I had had a shed to put them in, I would have invested in snow tyres for this winter. A wise investment, imho.

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q:..how do you fit them...do you have a couple of tyre angles and a handpump?

Got a spare set of alloys for peanuts on eBay. One of the advantages of having a fairly old car (Alfa 156) is that the market is flooded with original alloys as all the boy racers upgrade theirs.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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