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Si1

Does Anyone Still Know Any Loud Property Bulls?

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2 that I know of, big mouths:

(1) call centre insurance sales person, sounds charismatic, good atr her job, never ever reads any books or self-informs about anything. About to start borrowing money to get into BTL in Lancashire

(2) late middle aged primary school teacher, keeps telling all younger relatives to buy houses

(2.1) ex-police office frined of a friend (so i don't really know) getting into BTL by renting out OLD house she has moved out of and loudly proclaiming her wealth on facebook; again Lancashire

anyone else know some more

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They are becoming an endangered species.

Conversation yesterday with someone - their mortgage on a two-bed apartment they bought in Reading "a few years ago" is £1,130 per month. They've rented it out and are covering the payments, but "are desperate to get rid of it ".

Another chap I know better mentioned that he's trying to shift a property (in Shrops, by me) and he was left speechless by the recent EA valuations on it. "I can't believe houses have gone down so much," he said. Naturally I threw in a brief explanation of the delusion index to add to his misery. Someone else in the background then chipped in with "I'm beginning to regret buying when we did in 2007".

Finally, a friend who has just turned 30 used to be incredibly bullish on property (he's a teacher, predictably enough) and was once spotted with a copy of the Daily Express. He now accepts that he hasn't made any "profit" on the place he bought in 2005 and his wife purchased in 2004. Last month I heard him getting angry about the expensive property prices that have been handed down to his generation by that of his parents'. He's only just moved on to a lower SVR, having locked in over 6% deals in 2006 :o

EDIT TO ADD: There are a few left on EA Today, whose personal circumstances trump any idea that their profession needs lower prices to increase turnover. One, in the Midlands, whose posts read like its 2006 and is a self-confessed BTL junkie in his 40s absolutely laid in to my comments that house prices were down 30% in real terms since 2007 according to the Halifax. He could not grasp the idea that inflation was eating into his investments and it had to be spelled out on numerous occasions. A few articles and posts by other EAs have reinforced the point. He hasn't posted since...

Edited by rantnrave

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I don't meet many bulls but the biggest delusional sector appear to be the "it'll recover soon brigade"

Now I'm as scepticle as anybody regarding the hpc getting off ground. I think nominal falls will not occur until there is a run on sterling. That's not say you can't enjoy the real crash by sitting in usd/gold or other hard currencies like nok or jpy .

I am flabbergasted how people seem to think that we've gad some kind of correction and that there are millions of people waiting for a buy sign.

There is not a single fundamental in favour of house price inflation and I can't envisage a pre crash one and neither can the banks.

Banks will not lend in any meaningful sense until they see 25 pc of a valuation. Bearing on mind they only lend on repayment mortgages now then they are effectively suggesting they are anticipating a potential 30-35pc fall in five years .

As they are the ultimate buyers of property it doesn't bode very well for the asset class.

I'm not sure there are teems of twentysonethings who are keen to forego cars, holidays, electronic equipment and a social life in order to save ten years for a deposit to buy a box costing six times your income that hasn't gone up in value in five years.

Ok the govt has slashed rates to negative, ok they've printed via qe, ok they Still backstop the btl business via housing benefit.

And yet? The prices refuse to go up. In normal times the current monetary policy would result in double digit annual price rises, the fact that it hasn't means that the only bulls left must have mad cow disease.

I str in jan and it could be the single decision that took care of me and my family for life.

I do wish to own my own home again, I do want the security and peace of mind etc, but I'm the only buyer in town in my village and I've told them all I won't even look until they've shaved 30 pc off 2007 peak.

I've been laughed at a few times but I will always have a choice as to whether I buy or not, they might not have that choice as to whether they have to sell or not.

It's taken four years for what was ( I'm the 00's) the opposite Market dynamic to reverse. All is required now is a trigger.

I think bears may need patience, the bulls need to wake up and smell the coffee.

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I don't meet many bulls but the biggest delusional sector appear to be the "it'll recover soon brigade"

Now I'm as scepticle as anybody regarding the hpc getting off ground. I think nominal falls will not occur until there is a run on sterling. That's not say you can't enjoy the real crash by sitting in usd/gold or other hard currencies like nok or jpy .

I am flabbergasted how people seem to think that we've gad some kind of correction and that there are millions of people waiting for a buy sign.

There is not a single fundamental in favour of house price inflation and I can't envisage a pre crash one and neither can the banks.

Banks will not lend in any meaningful sense until they see 25 pc of a valuation. Bearing on mind they only lend on repayment mortgages now then they are effectively suggesting they are anticipating a potential 30-35pc fall in five years .

As they are the ultimate buyers of property it doesn't bode very well for the asset class.

I'm not sure there are teems of twentysonethings who are keen to forego cars, holidays, electronic equipment and a social life in order to save ten years for a deposit to buy a box costing six times your income that hasn't gone up in value in five years.

Ok the govt has slashed rates to negative, ok they've printed via qe, ok they Still backstop the btl business via housing benefit.

And yet? The prices refuse to go up. In normal times the current monetary policy would result in double digit annual price rises, the fact that it hasn't means that the only bulls left must have mad cow disease.

I str in jan and it could be the single decision that took care of me and my family for life.

I do wish to own my own home again, I do want the security and peace of mind etc, but I'm the only buyer in town in my village and I've told them all I won't even look until they've shaved 30 pc off 2007 peak.

I've been laughed at a few times but I will always have a choice as to whether I buy or not, they might not have that choice as to whether they have to sell or not.

It's taken four years for what was ( I'm the 00's) the opposite Market dynamic to reverse. All is required now is a trigger.

I think bears may need patience, the bulls need to wake up and smell the coffee.

You don't overcome a decade of brainwashing in just a couple of years. Especially when it's personal and they have to admit they have lost tens of thousands of pounds, even if it was only ever numbers on a piece of paper.

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everyone i know who comes into money still runs to houses

nothing has changed bar a ver slight let up on the garantee that houses will go up

bar a big housing construction boom i dont see prices falling much at all becuase rents will not go down

the five year period from 1965 to 1969 saw a total of 4,006,850 homes built (the years boomers started entering adaulthood)

the five years from 2010 to 2014 will likely see around 600,000 homes built (the screwed generation)

4,000.000 compaired to 600,000

and today that 600,000 is shared amounst a bigger population!!!

save the countriside alliance.....more like keep the poor poor alliance

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everyone i know who comes into money still runs to houses

nothing has changed bar a ver slight let up on the garantee that houses will go up

bar a big housing construction boom i dont see prices falling much at all becuase rents will not go down

the five year period from 1965 to 1969 saw a total of 4,006,850 homes built (the years boomers started entering adaulthood)

the five years from 2010 to 2014 will likely see around 600,000 homes built (the screwed generation)

4,000.000 compaired to 600,000

and today that 600,000 is shared amounst a bigger population!!!

save the countriside alliance.....more like keep the poor poor alliance

It's the only leveraged bet that is capital gains exempt. Until they change the rules on this and build more houses then it does make some sense. Even after such a rule change it would probably take a generation for this to "sink in".

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It's the only leveraged bet that is capital gains exempt. Until they change the rules on this and build more houses then it does make some sense. Even after such a rule change it would probably take a generation for this to "sink in".

They won't change the CGT rule for first homes because it would render people totally immobile, not good for the economy but they could tighten up for second homes to prevent flipping.

They won't build houses in the same quantities as the 1960s in the south east as there is no longer an easy available supply of land.

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You don't overcome a decade of brainwashing in just a couple of years. Especially when it's personal and they have to admit they have lost tens of thousands of pounds, even if it was only ever numbers on a piece of paper.

True, and I think reality biting hard is the only thing that can really overcome it. Right enough, then it only takes a matter of minutes in my experience (unless you decide on suicide).

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They won't change the CGT rule for first homes because it would render people totally immobile, not good for the economy but they could tighten up for second homes to prevent flipping.

They won't build houses in the same quantities as the 1960s in the south east as there is no longer an easy available supply of land.

Why would paying a percentage of the house price increase render people immobile? That would only be the case if houses were continually going up above wages.

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Not sure about whether the tax gain would render immobility or not. It would be more just than income tax do I'd favour it in principle.

As for what would definitely cause a hpc , I still think a run on sterling. We still need to borrow and a run on Gbp would push up rates, you could then not care about sentiment, people would be forced onto Market.

What makes me despair about mystic merv and co is they don't realise or care that the can kicking of building up inflation is leaving mortgagees with less wriggle room when rates do rise, thus a crash rather than sift decline is more likely.

That's why u don't pay any heed to house price indices, prices will go up steadily, teeter at flat , or crash like a stone . No other outcomes are feasible

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2 that I know of, big mouths:

(1) call centre insurance sales person, sounds charismatic, good atr her job, never ever reads any books or self-informs about anything. About to start borrowing money to get into BTL in Lancashire

(2) late middle aged primary school teacher, keeps telling all younger relatives to buy houses

(2.1) ex-police office frined of a friend (so i don't really know) getting into BTL by renting out OLD house she has moved out of and loudly proclaiming her wealth on facebook; again Lancashire

anyone else know some more

I have been 100% bear for 7 years now, I have slept comfortably most nights in the knowledge my day would come. ALL of the criteria that I thought was needed to create a property crash has been in place for a good while now.

Tonight I am going to bed knowing that I will be waking up to an unsure outcome when it comes to property prices, I just don't know anymore. I think you will find that there are more bulls out there than you imagine

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everyone i know who comes into money still runs to houses

There is a difference between mortgaging yourself to the hilt to get some BTLs....and "coming into money" and spending a chunk of that on property.

I haven't seen any of the "fill your boots, you can't lose" brigade recently.

I am yet to be convinced that property is a worse investment than "conventional" places to put cash. Bank account - lose 5% a year. Equities - really lucky to stand still, a few bad choices and you lose lots. Fixed income - for the brave probably, any thing safe loses money.

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They won't change the CGT rule for first homes because it would render people totally immobile, not good for the economy but they could tighten up for second homes to prevent flipping.

Plummeted prices will make people FAR FAR more mobile

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I am yet to be convinced that property is a worse investment than "conventional" places to put cash. Bank account - lose 5% a year. Equities - really lucky to stand still, a few bad choices and you lose lots. Fixed income - for the brave probably, any thing safe loses money.

Preserving capital during the period of greatest wealth destruction in history ain't a bad idea. But you can't do it with property. You certainly can't keep up with inflation / preserve purchasing power.

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Property isn't a bad way of preserving capital - people who used it in the 70s for just that purpose did pretty well. IMO property is a poor investment when times are good, beacuse there are better returns to be had elsewhere.

Even in the worst case hyperinflation/currency destruction scenario, you still own an asset. Unlike, say, cash, where your paper may be valueless.

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Property isn't a bad way of preserving capital - people who used it in the 70s for just that purpose did pretty well. IMO property is a poor investment when times are good, beacuse there are better returns to be had elsewhere.

Even in the worst case hyperinflation/currency destruction scenario, you still own an asset. Unlike, say, cash, where your paper may be valueless.

Apples and oranges.

No-one should hold cash for 20 years. But yes for 2012/13. But not property to then.

Property will become useful but not for some while. Similarly stocks will be useful but not now. Cash is useful for the next year or so.

Edited by Killer Bunny

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My boss surprised me recently. I made a passing comment a few months ago that I houses were expensive. Had the usual reply that now's a good time to buy because any crash has already been in 2007. He's just sold his BTL and is swaying toward my viewpoint. He's no HPCer but he's clearly having doubts.

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everyone i know who comes into money still runs to houses

Well, if your numbers came up on the Euro Millions, would you not think about buying somewhere nice? I know I would.

Getting a few grand after granny finally pegs it is another matter though, and this would be better invested elsewhere.

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Well, if your numbers came up on the Euro Millions, would you not think about buying somewhere nice? I know I would.

Getting a few grand after granny finally pegs it is another matter though, and this would be better invested elsewhere.

Yes, I'd definitely buy a nice house if I wont the big lottery jackpot....just not in this country !!!!!!

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No

But if you own one now isn't a bad time to get stuff done to it

Plenty of builder types around who need the work

Not for "adding value" of course... just because you might as well enjoy it

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There is a difference between mortgaging yourself to the hilt to get some BTLs....and "coming into money" and spending a chunk of that on property.

yep, when the first goes bankrupt they lose nothing they didn't already not own in the first place

when the latter goes bankrupt, they simply throw away hard earned wealth of their parents

Edited by Si1

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when the latter goes bankrupt, they simply throw away hard earned wealth of their parents

If you have bought and paid for an asset, then it is unlikely to bankrupt you. The hard earned wealth may diminish in value, but it may do that in any other investment vehicle.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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