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Alistair Darling: What Europe Must Do, Now, To Avert Calamity

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http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/alistair-darling-what-europe-must-do-now-to-avert-calamity-6260510.html

Europe's growth has stalled and its leaders continue to wring their hands ineffectually. The longer the delay in doing what is needed the greater the financial cost will be. Worse, the longer nothing is done the greater the risk that markets will doubt not only the political will of eurozone leaders, but their financial ability to do what is needed. Now we hear of plans yet to be disclosed to break up the euro in the midst of the raging firestorm. Talk about careless talk costing lives.

A leadership vacuum lies at the heart of the global crisis. Last week's meeting of the G20 leaders was an abject failure just at a time when the world needs strong leadership and a clear sense of direction. Europe still fiddles as Rome threatens to burn and ignite a fire far beyond its borders .

No Alistair it's not a leadership vacuum that lies at the heart of this crisis, it's a debt problem and the fact the countries involved have no money and tax avoidance by the rich is endemic. Although having a leadership with the guts to tackle the tax avoidance would reduce some of the pain the only option is default, the debt has to be purged.

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http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/alistair-darling-what-europe-must-do-now-to-avert-calamity-6260510.html

No Alistair it's not a leadership vacuum that lies at the heart of this crisis, it's a debt problem and the fact the countries involved have no money and tax avoidance by the rich is endemic. Although having a leadership with the guts to tackle the tax avoidance would reduce some of the pain the only option is default, the debt has to be purged.

A leadership that does nothing to help other than cut state spending and taxes is what we need. Once they have done this, a leadership vacuum would be handy, and cheap.

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If there is one thing Alistair Darling knows about (other than how to dye eyebrows) it's a leadership vacuum... :lol:

...he and his party 'don't do debt'...they just focus on leadership battles.... :rolleyes:

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To quote David Essex:

"Oh what a circus."

Are there really people that think this can be solved by changing leaders (undemocratically), printing money, debasing currencies, buoying up the broken financial sector and trying to carry on as normal.

(Rhetoric) They all seem to be in government and are part of the problem. The time to solve this was probably a decade ago.

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To quote David Essex:

"Oh what a circus."

Are there really people that think this can be solved by changing leaders (undemocratically), printing money, debasing currencies, buoying up the broken financial sector and trying to carry on as normal.

(Rhetoric) They all seem to be in government and are part of the problem. The time to solve this was probably a decade ago.

Most European leaders are the product of their country's bloated civil service - places where you work at a snail's place, everything takes forever, no one takes repsonsibility and no one is held accountable whilst it does not matter how much you over-spend, or what you c*ck up, because there will be more public money in the budget next year.

This is why Euro leaders are failing in Europe.

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ah...yes ...leadership....that awful courage that must be shown .... To fire up the printing press.... Or for the German leaders to hand out freebies to the profligates around them against the wishes of her people... That's the glorious leadership we need... Oh but that the one eyed moron were in charge ...he would have saved Europe singlehandedly...

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There seems to be a consensus on the BBC today - Andrew Neil being the exception - that the Euro crisis is all solved with new leaders in Greece and Italy.

Might I suggest, TMT, that 'consensus' = editorial policy determined by about three people with half a brain between them.

It can't have escaped anyone's notice that the 'leadership vacuum' has been filled by people who were never leaders or ever elected.

ecb2.jpg

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Might I suggest, TMT, that 'consensus' = editorial policy determined by about three people with half a brain between them.

It can't have escaped anyone's notice that the 'leadership vacuum' has been filled by people who were never leaders or ever elected.

ecb2.jpg

Who cares what the BBC think.

Obama is the saviour - wrong

Clegg is the saviour - wrong

People in Greece and Italy have voted for 10 years like children. Democracy must be won every day to keep it fresh. Now is not the time to start crying for a right to vote after using that same vote for unsustainable policies.

Edited by bmf

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If a leadership vacuum means less government interference then that's got to be a good thing.

As for

Europe still fiddles as Rome threatens to burn and ignite a fire far beyond its borders .

Europe's been fiddling for decades now (it's not just a recent thing) and it's been encouraged by too much of the sort of "leadership" that's resulted in the current long term collapse of economies not only in europe but also all around the world (no vacuum of that sort of leadership - it's been only too common) .

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Who cares what the BBC think.

Obama is the saviour - wrong

Clegg is the saviour - wrong

People in Greece and Italy have voted for 10 years like children. Democracy must be won every day to keep it fresh. Now is not the time to start crying for a right to vote after using that same vote for unsustainable policies.

Be interesting to see if we all think the same when it happens to us. Or perhaps it'll be an issue of sovereignty by then.

I suspect the electorate in those countries hasn't had a genuine choice for years. At least the lack of choice and who's really in power should now be obvious. Personally, I prefer it this way. The real enemy is now out in the open. A bit like when the black shadow creatures finally revealed themselves in Babylon 5.

I'm not against technocrats in principle. Putting an elected scientist in charge of a science ministry is perhaps no bad thing. But bankers and economists have hardly demonstrated a great track record in recent years.

Edited by StainlessSteelCat

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There seems to be a consensus on the BBC today - Andrew Neil being the exception - that the Euro crisis is all solved with new leaders in Greece and Italy.

Why do people still watch TV news when they come out with such baloney?

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All their training (because I had it) is in running a Ponzi, without letting on to yourself that that's what you're doing. It won't work now.

Wow you had training in taking us to Idiocracy?

How did you manage to defeat the groupthink? I'm impressed if you've been singled out for that training you must have had what it takes to delude yourself. :P

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All their training (because I had it) is in running a Ponzi, without letting on to yourself that that's what you're doing. It won't work now.

However, the electorate are gullible. Look at the Greeks striking and rioting for the Ponzi to be continued.

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Here's Nouriel Roubini's latest on the subject of what to do next.

It's a lot longer and better analysed than Hugh Hendry's 'I suggest you panic' but amounts to pretty much the same thing.

Below I've attempted to condense it, but much better by far to read the whole long piece.

Four Options to Address the Stock and Flow Problems of the EZ

Option 1. Growth and Competiveness Are Restored.

Option 2. The Deflationary/Depressionary Route to the Restoration of Competitiveness.

Option 3. The Core Permanently Subsidizes the Periphery.

Option 4. The EZ Experiences Widespread Debt Restructurings.

An Assessment of the Likelihood of the Four Options

Option 1: Most Desirable But Quite Unlikely as Contrary to the Goals and Constraints of Germany/the ECB.

Option 2: Socially-Politically Unacceptable as Implies a Persistent Recession-Depression in Most of the Periphery.

Option 3: Not Acceptable to the EZ Core as it Implies Permanent Subsidies to a Large Part of the Periphery, I.e. a Transfer Union Rather Than a Fiscal Union.

Option 4: Widespread Debt Reductions and Eventual EZ Break-Up—Becomes the More Likely Outcome as the Other Three Options Are Not Likely or They Are Not Desirable or Sustainable.

Options and Scenarios for the EZ

Scenario 1, the current EZ plan somehow works and Italy and Spain are successfully ring-fenced via the levered EFSF and exogenous factors that restore growth after a 2012 recession. Then Greece and/or Portugal/Cyprus experience debt reductions and possibly exit the EZ, but the EZ survives if Italy and Spain survive and thrive.

Scenario 2, Plan A does not work and, once the levered EFSF bazooka has run out of money and pressure on Italian and Spanish spreads has not abated as recession becomes entrenched, Italy and Spain may have to experience debt restructuring and eventually even exit the EZ.

Scenario 3, things unravel for the EZ inside 12 months as a disorderly collapse of Greece prevents Plan A (buy time on Greece by keeping it on life support until Italy and Spain are successfully ring-fenced and then pull the plug) from even being tried, before it is given a chance to succeed (Scenario 1) or fail (Scenario 2).

Conclusion

Our point is that we cannot rule out Option 4 becoming more likely: i.e. Scenarios 2 and/or 3 materialize, so the next steps of these scenarios are widespread debt restructuring and eventual exit from the EZ of enough member states such that a break-up of the EZ turns out to be necessary and unavoidable. In terms of this non-linear set of scenarios, the periphery will push for Options 1 or 3 as a way to avoid Option 4; but if Germany/the core/the ECB stick with Option 2, Scenarios 2 or 3 rather than 1 will materialize and the EZ will eventually end up with Option 4, i.e. debt reductions, exit from the monetary union and the break-up of the monetary union.

Edited by LeeT

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http://www.independe...ty-6260510.html

No Alistair it's not a leadership vacuum that lies at the heart of this crisis, it's a debt problem and the fact the countries involved have no money and tax avoidance by the rich is endemic. Although having a leadership with the guts to tackle the tax avoidance would reduce some of the pain the only option is default, the debt has to be purged.

I'm using these two as an example of the idolised nouveaux gentry of our society - yet are the two-faced 'scum' of our society betraying the very people who look up to them.

Both came from ordinary backgrounds as far as I know

Beckhams both blessed with god-given skills which brought them into forefront of population and made them multi-millionaires.

Both these multi millionaires got their cash at root level from millions of poor teenagers etc who live in skyrise council flats collectively buying music CD's with meagre pocket money and in Beckams case lolly coming from football sky subscriptions and non-wealthy but dedicated working men blowing hard earned fully TAXED cash to pay his millionaire salary.

What do they do in return to the UK society that gave them these riches/medals thru fame?

They repay the country's poor by off-shoring & depriving them of taxes due on their multi-million fortune.

Thus less cash is available to the NHS, skools, etc etc - to aid the very people who put them into Beckingham Palace!

Idolised Scum!

Edited by erranta

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Europe's growth has stalled and its leaders continue to wring their hands ineffectually. The longer the delay in doing what is needed the greater the financial cost will be. Worse, the longer nothing is done the greater the risk that markets will doubt not only the political will of eurozone leaders, but their financial ability to do what is needed. Now we hear of plans yet to be disclosed to break up the euro in the midst of the raging firestorm. Talk about careless talk costing lives.

A leadership vacuum lies at the heart of the global crisis. Last week's meeting of the G20 leaders was an abject failure just at a time when the world needs strong leadership and a clear sense of direction. Europe still fiddles as Rome threatens to burn and ignite a fire far beyond its borders.

Rhetorical nonsense.

We need "leadership, a clear direction, doing what is needed".

OK Darling, what direction, what is needed. Be specific. Omit no detail.

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From what I have been reading today in the global news its all too late.

The UK banking sector has been insuring the bonds that have been issued by the EU nations thinking there was no way on Gods earth that the EU would be allowed to fail.

They ate from the devils cup and unfortunately the British public are the ones that are going to be the real losers as the EU gathers steam to break up and renege on it debts.

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I've read a lot of these articles in the last few weeks and you can invariably substitute the words "leadership", "confidence" etc... With Printing without changing the message of the piece one iota.

Cgnao was right.

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Here's Nouriel Roubini's latest on the subject of what to do next.

It's a lot longer and better analysed than Hugh Hendry's 'I suggest you panic' but amounts to pretty much the same thing.

Below I've attempted to condense it, but much better by far to read the whole long piece.

Option 4. The EZ Experiences Widespread Debt Restructurings.

An Assessment of the Likelihood of the Four Options

Option 4: Widespread Debt Reductions and Eventual EZ Break-Up—Becomes the More Likely Outcome as the Other Three Options Are Not Likely or They Are Not Desirable or Sustainable.

Option 4 is the only solution there is no way they can get growth without a miracle.

There is only default, however that doesn't mean the single market will collapse but a lot of the corrupt EU should hopefully be cleansed.

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Option 4 is the only solution there is no way they can get growth without a miracle.

I think in the full version he argues that you may eventually get growth but that populations will be unlikely to put up with more than three years of breadline austerity.

'Breadline' is a relative term of course, depending upon what you're used to. But in the case of the 'lazy, ouzo swilling, olive pip-spitting Greeks', some teachers were reduced from 1200 Euro a month to 800 in Austerity 1 and look like hitting 500 when Austerity 2 kicks in.

But hey, they're lucky to have a job, aren't they? :unsure:

In passing, I suggest more people would take notice of Roubini if he didn't write so badly.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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