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Killer Bunny

Demographics

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Someone want to tell me how house prices can rise with these demographics

The thing is, there are currently a lot of people in Britain, particularly in the 20-40 categories, who weren't born here.

What did the equivalent graph look like 10, 15, 20, 25 years ago?

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150% mortgages

30 year mortgages

Printy Printy pushes asset prices to unreached highs

Funny. I thought banks were insolvent so can't lend and won't for many years. Must be just me I guess.

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Someone want to tell me how house prices can rise with these demographics

Those young Brazilians are all skint compared to our biggest group who have had the equity in their cheaply bought assets protected by government intervention to screw our young. Plus lots of our asset rich have public sector pensions?

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Funny. I thought banks were insolvent so can't lend and won't for many years. Must be just me I guess.

The plan is to push the risky lending onto councils....

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/mar/16/local-councils-first-time-buyer-mortgage-support

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Birmingham-given-AAA-credit-tele-2410378039.html

http://www.uklandlordnews.co.uk/council-wants-to-licence-thousands-of-landlords/

It will be councils being bailed out with taxpayer money instead of banks.

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Someone want to tell me how house prices can rise with these demographics

Like I always ask on here, what job function can these tens of millions of geriatrics possibly perform?

It's a very nasty predicament, and those who think that the state will be able to support it, well, they're morons.

Good thing you lot have X-factor and silly little wars to distract you from reality.

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These on teh other hand:

brazpop.gif

Hope they're looking forward to tons of youth unemployment!

Note also how their birth rate is dropping. Ours is more-or-less steady, rising very slightly. And then our working age population is boosted by immigration.

All these countries around the world with huge young populations - not very politically stable..

Just to add: a lot of countries have very poor demographics for the medium-long run. Japan and Germany are dying out; China is going to face a massive elderly population burden, with few young people around, and eventually a declining population; Brazil's birth rate is falling rapidly - too rapidly - and will face a huge "bulge" of retiring people in about 30 years time... the UK and France on the other hand (as well as the US and Canada) actually have fairly good prospects.

Edited by Chuffy Chuffnell

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Like I always ask on here, what job function can these tens of millions of geriatrics possibly perform?

It's a very nasty predicament, and those who think that the state will be able to support it, well, they're morons.

Good thing you lot have X-factor and silly little wars to distract you from reality.

Not sure where these "tens of millions" are you see. Most people are reasonably fit and healthy until 70. So just counting the last three age groups, male and female, for 2020 the UK will have around 10 million "geriatrics" - about 1 in 7 of the population. It's not THAT bad. If you want BAD check out Italy or Japan..

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Someone want to tell me how house prices can rise with these demographics

There's one thing I'm noticing that will compound the problem: more and more people in their early forties are downsizing or selling 'assets' as they see their future employment prospects to be very dim because of their age. They're not waiting to reach their mid fifities anymore.

But I agree with Injin that this only works in real term, the formerly independent BOE can always print the pound to oblivion to keep those nominal prices up.

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You'd also want to know how the existing 'ownership' demographic is distributed and how it might be distributed in the future. There's also 'supply' as well as 'demand' to consider.

For instance, downsizing amongst an ageing population might create demand for smaller, retirement type, accomodation, cheaper to heat as energy costs rise and so on, whilst at the younger end household formation has been deferred due to the bubble, with younger people staying at home longer, sharing rentals and so on.

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Hope they're looking forward to tons of youth unemployment!

Note also how their birth rate is dropping. Ours is more-or-less steady, rising very slightly. And then our working age population is boosted by immigration.

All these countries around the world with huge young populations - not very politically stable..

Just to add: a lot of countries have very poor demographics for the medium-long run. Japan and Germany are dying out; China is going to face a massive elderly population burden, with few young people around, and eventually a declining population; Brazil's birth rate is falling rapidly - too rapidly - and will face a huge "bulge" of retiring people in about 30 years time... the UK and France on the other hand (as well as the US and Canada) actually have fairly good prospects.

But ours is based on projections for 2020 whilst the Brazilian one takes data from 2002. I think ours needs the BoE official fan chart prediction for birth rates over the next 9 years. It could go to 0. The government are trying their darndest to make it exponentially go the other way.

How do you interpret "We don't know how many people that we've let in or where they are now" quantitatively?

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Like I always ask on here, what job function can these tens of millions of geriatrics possibly perform?

It's a very nasty predicament, and those who think that the state will be able to support it, well, they're morons.

Good thing you lot have X-factor and silly little wars to distract you from reality

Not sure you spend much time around people of the older generation. Three examples I know personally Chairman of large relocation business 72, Mates Dad ex farmer now trained physio 75 and never been busier, health and safety consultant retired started his own business at 74 has ten employees.

You would be surprised I think at how many silver surfers don't expect the state to support them. From a report on care services for the elderly over 65 which some would argue isn't elderly anymore in a first world country.

2000 2010 2020

Total number of service recipients 1,929,000 2,078,000 2,431,500

An increase of 26% and actually in care homes the figure was only 400,000 the big number is made up of meals on wheels etc (which will have to be trimmed I think)

The reality isn't that everyone past 65 is a dribbling cabbage smelling oap, the reality that advances in diet and medicine mean they are very functional and in fact probably taking jobs from the younger generation.

Edited by Greg Bowman

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You would be surprised I think at how many silver surfers don't expect the state to support them.

No, they expect their house to!

The reality isn't that everyone past 65 is a dribbling cabbage smelling oap, the reality that advances in diet and medicine mean they are very functional and in fact probably taking jobs from the younger generation.

Easier to take low wages with no rent or mortgage to pay.....

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  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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