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Risk Of Uk Default Set To Soar If Italy Defaults

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The chances of Britain being left unable to service its debt would jump to one in five in the event of an Italian financial collapse, according to a note by Fathom Consulting.

At the moment the price of insuring Britain's debt - through credit default swaps - implies a 9pc chance of default. But Fathom said: "If Italy were to default, the probability of a UK default would rise to 22pc."

The cost of government borrowing would also go up by around 2.5 percentage points.

Italy's cost of borrowing pushed through the 7pc level yesterday raising fears that it will not be able to service its €1.9 trillion (£1.6 trillion) debt pile.

A French default would be even more serious - the risks and the cost of UK government borrowing "would roughly double", according to Fathom.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8879925/Risk-of-UK-default-set-to-soar-if-Italy-defaults.html

I wonder how long before some of these analysts bosses of rating firms begin to have unexplained accidents?

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The chances of Britain being left unable to service its debt would jump to one in five in the event of an Italian financial collapse

No problems if that happened Dave and George with a reluctant Nick would shake out their piggy banks to help the country out. :D

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Ah, everything is sorted - Peston just said on the BBC News that Germany will come riding to the EU's rescue in a few days.

Sorted. Bonuses all round then.

HA!!!!!!!!!! :D:P ... So everything's fine then, eh?!? :P .... NOT....

LIAR RESCUE LOAN?...... :rolleyes:

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Risk Of Uk Default Set To Soar If Italy Defaults

What's all this 'if' stuff about?

Ireland is TOAST.

Greece is TOAST.

Portugal is TOAST.

Italy is TOAST.

Spain is TOAST.

The only thing that separates the UK from the EEU is, sadly, Mystic Merv.

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Hello, this is serious. Can someone say something useful?

What will happen if UK defaults?

To house prices? Savings?

Are we supposed to open dollar accounts and stuff our cash into them?

Ta in advance of helpful replies.

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Are we supposed to open dollar accounts and stuff our cash into them?

Ta in advance of helpful replies.

German bunds. When the Euro splits up, the german bonds, converted into marks will probably appreciate substantially (unless they get taken under by their feckless southern neighbours).

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Hello, this is serious. Can someone say something useful?

What will happen if UK defaults?

To house prices? Savings?

Are we supposed to open dollar accounts and stuff our cash into them?

Ta in advance of helpful replies.

Give you a hint...

zimbabwe.jpg

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Hello, this is serious. Can someone say something useful?

What will happen if UK defaults?

To house prices? Savings?

Are we supposed to open dollar accounts and stuff our cash into them?

Ta in advance of helpful replies.

PictureorVideo010.jpg

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Hello, this is serious. Can someone say something useful?

What will happen if UK defaults?

To house prices? Savings?

Are we supposed to open dollar accounts and stuff our cash into them?

Ta in advance of helpful replies.

frazer.jpg

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Rather than rates going up here, won't the BofE just buy Govt debt again? ie printy printy.

I assume that it would cause considerable inflation in that event of them QEing mega billions

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Each European nation that is bankrupting itself has several things in common. Too much money invested in property as a SUBSTITUTE for real wealth. Too much roulette playing instead of building infrastructure. Too much reliance upon fluff rather than solid economic growth. Too much speculation. Too much reliance on what "markets" say and do rather than looking at the reality of backbone economic productivilty. Too much concentration on the "Euro", which is just an exchange of currency, not a representation of productivity. Too much reliance on the word of economists and "experts" who are all part of the chattering dilittantes who say a lot but produce nothing. Too much money poured down the wrong black holes in pursuit of recovery. Too much reward for those who contribute little but claim a lot. Too much power vested in those who CONTROL markets but contribute nothing to them.

All these factors are shared in common with those nations who have allowed those who manipulate economies for their own gain to take hold, while diminishing the influence of those who are actually doing the work.

The UK has NOTHING to be superior about. It's all very well saying X is toast or Y is toast. WE ARE TOAST, or at the very least are approaching being so. Look at the first paragraph and see if there is anything there the UK has practiced over the last twenty years. I think you'll find that the UK is very near the same situation some gloat about in describing other nations.

What is the difference between Gordon Brown/ Tony Blair/Thatcher/Lamont/Lawson and the long list of current Euro leaders? Very little in terms of allowing economies to be based entirely on speculation, city-led gambling and over-reliance on property as a driver of economic "wealth". Our indebtedness is very close to the level experienced by all those states. QE has failed. The cash is disappearing down a black hole. We are in danger of being next.

Edited by VacantPossession

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Guest spp

The only thing that separates the UK from the EEU is, sadly, Mystic Merv.

For now! Look out for the internal 'money' inflation.

The euro is in for a very bumpy ride. They have a sizable chunk of Gold floating around though. How badly do they want to keep it together is the ?

Now...who wants to swap some of this 'fast cash' for some PM's?

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With all this uncertainty there is one certainty; the rich will remain rich and probably get even richer and the rest of us will be worse off, no matter if you are Greek, Italian, Spanish or British.

Here is an interesting podcast on the "top 1%", including what happens during a downturn:

http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2011/11/kaplan_on_the_i.html

It has interesting insights into the top 1% and the top 0.1%

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Each European nation that is bankrupting itself has several things in common. Too much money invested in property as a SUBSTITUTE for real wealth. Too much roulette playing instead of building infrastructure. Too much reliance upon fluff rather than solid economic growth. Too much speculation. Too much reliance on what "markets" say and do rather than looking at the reality of backbone economic productivilty. Too much concentration on the "Euro", which is just an exchange of currency, not a representation of productivity. Too much reliance on the word of economists and "experts" who are all part of the chattering dilittantes who say a lot but produce nothing. Too much money poured down the wrong black holes in pursuit of recovery. Too much reward for those who contribute little but claim a lot. Too much power vested in those who CONTROL markets but contribute nothing to them.

All these factors are shared in common with those nations who have allowed those who manipulate economies for their own gain to take hold, while diminishing the influence of those who are actually doing the work.

The UK has NOTHING to be superior about. It's all very well saying X is toast or Y is toast. WE ARE TOAST, or at the very least are approaching being so. Look at the first paragraph and see if there is anything there the UK has practiced over the last twenty years. I think you'll find that the UK is very near the same situation some gloat about in describing other nations.

What is the difference between Gordon Brown/ Tony Blair/Thatcher/Lamont/Lawson and the long list of current Euro leaders? Very little in terms of allowing economies to be based entirely on speculation, city-led gambling and over-reliance on property as a driver of economic "wealth". Our indebtedness is very close to the level experienced by all those states. QE has failed. The cash is disappearing down a black hole. We are in danger of being next.

Great post. Capitalism is actually an easy game to play if we stay focused. It is simply building up industrial capital. You have 4 steel mills, you build a 5th bigger steel mill using things you have learned on the others. Now you have 5 steel mills. Each real industrial capital like an oil refinery pays big time wages, big benefits, return for bond investors, return for shareholders, huge taxes for local and national government.

This is what Germany and France and Japan have done. They keep building more industrial capital.

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What's all this 'if' stuff about?

Ireland is TOAST.

Greece is TOAST.

Portugal is TOAST.

Italy is TOAST.

Spain is TOAST.

The only thing that separates the UK from the EEU is, sadly, Mystic Merv.

No, the only thing that separates the UK from the EU is the ability to create currency as we see fit. The reason the EU is in this mess is that by creating the Euro they effectively created a new gold standard which limits the money supply. This can be easily remedied by the ECB if they choose to do so.

Hello, this is serious. Can someone say something useful?

What will happen if UK defaults?

To house prices? Savings?

Are we supposed to open dollar accounts and stuff our cash into them?

Ta in advance of helpful replies.

The UK can never default. It is an impossibility. Your worse case scenario is hyperinflation which is extraordinarily remote.

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=16816

Italy won't collapse. The ECB will print. Bondholders don't care - they get to spend the printed wonga first.

Is the correct answer. The greater the hysteria the more opportunity for the people who understand how the monetary system really works to make some money.

Edited by FaFa!

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The PIIGS will be thrown out of the Euro and will default.

The UK? No it won't default. Why would it? If we have to, we could print money to cover the debt. The PIIGS can't.

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The reason the EU is in this mess is that by creating the Euro they effectively created a new gold standard which limits the money supply. This can be easily remedied by the ECB if they choose to do so.

Eh?

Eh?

Sorry dude, but its time for you to put down the doobie and go watch some x-factor.

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What's all this 'if' stuff about?

Ireland is TOAST.

Greece is TOAST.

Portugal is TOAST.

Italy is TOAST.

Spain is TOAST.

The only thing that separates the UK from the EEU is, sadly, Mystic Merv.

I believe in the 21st century the central bank and its printing press will be more important than the power of income tax. The UK and the US are in a far better position than these Europeans simply because they still have their central bank.

I think at the end of the day the ECB needs to print its way out of this, and then set rules for the future for borrowing from each of the member states.

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No, the only thing that separates the UK from the EU is the ability to create currency as we see fit. The reason the EU is in this mess is that by creating the Euro they effectively created a new gold standard which limits the money supply. This can be easily remedied by the ECB if they choose to do so.

The UK can never default. It is an impossibility. Your worse case scenario is hyperinflation which is extraordinarily remote.

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=16816

Is the correct answer. The greater the hysteria the more opportunity for the people who understand how the monetary system really works to make some money.

No the decision lies with Germany on whether to print not the ECB.

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The PIIGS will be thrown out of the Euro and will default.

The UK? No it won't default. Why would it? If we have to, we could print money to cover the debt. The PIIGS can't.

I think that the ECB will print even if they protest they won't. As another poster said to me the other day, let's see them look into the precipice first. They are looking into it now, I should imagine.

I am a little pissed off with myself. There was an absolute golden short on EURUSD yesterday morning around 8am and I sodding missed it due to work.

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I think that the ECB will print even if they protest they won't.

Why not just throw out the PIIGS who should never have been in the currency in the first place, and let Germany, France etc carry on with a decent Euro?

Debasing it and shafting the non-PIIGS too seems pointless?

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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