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I had a right old row with a mate of mine in the pub this weekend as to why NOW is not a good time to buy.

I also have another friend who takes great pleasure in winding me up by sending me links, such as the one below.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4325972.stm

Now what I need is a well thought out fairly short, and concise counter argument, from somebody more articulate than myself to shut them up for good.

eg. Can somebody explain in simple terms why HPI is still showing positive, and when and why it should go

Y.O.Y. negative. Never quite got my head round how the figures are fiddled as prices have supposedly

been dropping for the last 15 months.

Any help appreciated, as I still firmly believe in the coming HPC, but cannot always put the argument across as well as I would like.

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I'm not the one to answer your question. I would be interested in the response myself.

But, I was in the same situation. A mate in the pub, totally disagreed with me, he said "prices will not fall". Other people there agreed with him. I told him I would send him some stuff, so I sent him links - just like the one your mate sent you, but bear articles - and I kept sending them. I invited him to compose a counter, bull argument, which he could easily have done, but didn't.

When we last met he said I could stop sending him those emails now, so I said I would consider the argument won, and he agreed.

This explains a lot. To start with he believed the media/general opinion, now he believes me without really looking into the evidence.

If I go to the doctors, and the doctor diagnoses my illness, then I won't challenge him, or start studying medicine myself to confirm, why/how would I?

Granted, this is slightly different and the doc should be correct; there are ethics/second opinions/etc.

BUT

I think most people think the same thing about housing/economics. They aren't qualified in such things and don't see the need/ability to question the opinion of those who are, even though it is delivered to them through the media.

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you could point out that the south east just went yoy negative so they are falling whether he likes it or not

or you could get some new mates

:D Yeh think i'll do the new mates thing !

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I had a right old row with a mate of mine in the pub this weekend as to why NOW is not a good time to buy.

I also have another friend who takes great pleasure in winding me up by sending me links, such as the one below.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4325972.stm

Now what I need is a well thought out fairly short, and concise counter argument, from somebody more articulate than myself to shut them up for good.

eg. Can somebody explain in simple terms why HPI is still showing positive, and when and why it should go

Y.O.Y. negative. Never quite got my head round how the figures are fiddled as prices have supposedly

been dropping for the last 15 months.

Any help appreciated, as I still firmly believe in the coming HPC, but cannot always put the argument across as well as I would like.

The best defence is attack, so what I would say to your mate is :

"Last years HPI was at 20% plus...

... this year its dropped to near negative.

You do the math...

and while you are doing the math tell me what is going to turn this fall around!"

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:D Yeh think i'll do the new mates thing !

To be fair, there are several people at work who have just bought new houses and i take great pleasure in pointing out to them that they are already in negative equity!

If they are willing to listen and have a serious debate you could point out:

all the news articles on the blogger here;

the cost of houses vs average salary;

the liklihood of tax increases to support labour borrowing;

the number of jobs being lost recently;

the yoy falls mentioned in other posts;

the number of buyers vs sellers (use Hometrack as that is quite dramatic).

Hope this helps, especially if they really are good mates. You might be doing them a significant favour.

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The best defence is attack, so what I would say to your mate is :

"Last years HPI was at 20% plus...

... this year its dropped to near negative.

You do the math...

and while you are doing the math tell me what is going to turn this fall around!"

I'd only say that if my friend was American. If not, I'd say

You do the maths...

I once again award myself pedant of the week award.

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To be fair, there are several people at work who have just bought new houses and i take great pleasure in pointing out to them that they are already in negative equity!

Not too much pleasure..

Chances are they are financially ruined and it will take a lifetime to sort themselves out.

a horrendous situation.. to be in.

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I had a right old row with a mate of mine in the pub this weekend as to why NOW is not a good time to buy.

I also have another friend who takes great pleasure in winding me up by sending me links, such as the one below.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4325972.stm

Now what I need is a well thought out fairly short, and concise counter argument, from somebody more articulate than myself to shut them up for good.

eg. Can somebody explain in simple terms why HPI is still showing positive, and when and why it should go

Y.O.Y. negative. Never quite got my head round how the figures are fiddled as prices have supposedly

been dropping for the last 15 months.

Any help appreciated, as I still firmly believe in the coming HPC, but cannot always put the argument across as well as I would like.

Try:

http://www.firsttimebuyerhelp.co.uk/

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaySt...tory_id=4079458

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaySt...tory_id=4079458

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayst...tory_id=4079027

You should find most of what you need in these links.

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Those that laugh last, laugh the loudest...

May be you'll be able to buy his gaff for half of what it cost him in the years to come.

Shouldn't rub people's noses in it too much however. Most are just too trusting and don't deserve what's about to happen to them IMO. Their father did it, their father's father did it. Not their fault if they got the timing wrong.

I confute that. As in the courts of law "ignoroance is not a defence". The greed has blighted them with trying to better themselves over others. If they hd a tidy packet what would they have done to you... looked down on and snide upon from their (wanted) 4x4's.

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Not too much pleasure..

Chances are they are financially ruined and it will take a lifetime to sort themselves out.

a horrendous situation.. to be in.

spot on actually - i joke about it but there is one lad in particular who i fear for - he is really living the dream and has told several porkies to mortgage himself to the hilt - he is a really nice bloke but young and has no concept of what could go wrong - he has a decent secure job so could see out negative equity for a few years but if IRs rise even a couple of % i suspect he is cooked - most people who have bought recently i tease gently but they generally know what they are doing and have a bit of equity from previous property - i actually told this lad he was bing a bllody idiot and pointed out why but to no avail

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Face it. Those who owned their own property looked down their nose at those who couldn't afford it. The home owners patted themselves on the back for their hard work and their financial genius as their property skyrocketed in value. Their attitude to FTB was one of TOUGH LUCK at worst or crocodile tears at best. They rubbed our noses in it at every opportunity. Even the idiot box was not a safe warm glow of ignorance.

So the new economy is looking like a farce. There really is Boom and Bust. Debt does have to paid back

Oh well. The herd will forget about this mess and move onto the next big thing with the same predictable results

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Agreed but don't forget that many of them will be paying way over the odds for their insecurity (snobbery) for the next 25 years... ;)

Will you be kind enough then to spare 'em a tenner for a cup of tea or will you yourself be living it large in twice the property and half the debt? I hope so... :)

True thanks for the advice. :D

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I had a right old row with a mate of mine in the pub this weekend as to why NOW is not a good time to buy.

I also have another friend who takes great pleasure in winding me up by sending me links, such as the one below.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4325972.stm

Now what I need is a well thought out fairly short, and concise counter argument, from somebody more articulate than myself to shut them up for good.

eg. Can somebody explain in simple terms why HPI is still showing positive, and when and why it should go

Y.O.Y. negative. Never quite got my head round how the figures are fiddled as prices have supposedly

been dropping for the last 15 months.

Any help appreciated, as I still firmly believe in the coming HPC, but cannot always put the argument across as well as I would like.

Those who are bottle fed by the media believe that house prices can’t fall for the following three reasons:

· Historically Low Interest Rates

· Low Unemployment

· Huge Housing Shortage

Now look at these three items in turn and realise what each of them mean.

Historically Low Interest Rates: Which actually means that repayments can only get more far more expensive in future. And if you are stretched to the limit (which you will be at today’s prices) you will be guaranteed to lose you home and everything else you hold dear.

Low unemployment: The figures are fiddled, simple as that. The real figure is at least double the official figure. And we are on the cliff edge of the biggest recession for 80 years.

Huge Housing Shortage: 1 Million empty properties does not constitute a housing shortage, in fact 1 empty property does not constitute a housing shortage.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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