council dweller Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/10/28/uk-britain-consumer-gfk-idUKTRE79Q7PH20111028 Looks like it doesn't it? Your hats. Hang on to them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
council dweller Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm not sure it doesn't just follow the news. Anyway...there was this on the link too... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/uk-germany-gfk-idUKTRE79O2QQ20111025 So the Germans will help us then if we have no money? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone baby gone Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Don't worry guys, we're going to print our way out. Well, why not? It worked last time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We're out of recession !!!!! Now that is news. !!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dredwerker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We're out of recession !!!!! Now that is news. !!!!! news to me - definitely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The General Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We're out of recession !!!!! Now that is news. !!!!! If we only get away with a recession we'll be lucky, everything is pointing to something far worse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It took Gordon Brown over 10 years to put us into recession. The coalition are trying to manage it in 2 years. Now that's what I call progress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Bowman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We actually went in 2007 in lots of sectors. I am not so sure about the view it has to be a recession. So by next year we are 5 years in. In London ( granted vampire squid and all that old bull) things are definately more buoyant than a year ago. It's the lack of action that seems to me to typify the trough of the cycle. People are making decisions now on hiring, commercial moving and IT investment. The prevailing feeling is that we have survived let's gone on with it. Some sectors have changed for ever Retail, motif trade and of course the bloated public sector but that actually has just been intensified by the downturn , various factors meant that they were going to change anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Bowman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Can't seem to edit but meant motor trade not motif trade but of course that could be in trouble with all those fakes about ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yes we 'technically' left recession but as inflation is now 5%, and wages [for most] are pretty flat so standard of living is falling and this dents confidence. As for asset prices house prices are falling, and the stock market is extremely volatile. The BOE/MPC don't really have many options left, and recent behaviour has become extreme in reaction ( I guess this go's with the volatility ). Same for EU (interventions getting larger and larger, and more frequent) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
200p Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I have a website that tracks the FTSE 350 sectors - http://www.ukindices.blogspot.com/ Most of the major groups are pointing down, and forming Stage 4 declines apart from gas/water utilities, tobacco, and food producers, which are traditional defensive shares. The VIX is below 30, and the general market has decided one direction (you can figure that out, and it is not up). I am certain for a recession for 2012 at this point. Expect a tough winter. Batten down the hatches. Load up the shot gun and crack open the baked beans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trampa501 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 My feeling is that we've hit bottom and will now start recovering - there are snippets of good news from the US and also from Europe. Even in somewhere like Spain there are good pieces of news, such as the the contract to build the Saudi high speed rail line, and the increase in exports and tourist numbers. I may be completely mis-judging things, but I still think the biggest danger will be hyper-inflation in a couple of years, once the new easy credit and money printing takes effect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingermany Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm not sure it doesn't just follow the news. Anyway...there was this on the link too... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/uk-germany-gfk-idUKTRE79O2QQ20111025 German morale unexpectedly rises. Only because Merkel used the W word in her speech this month. And this sort of thing always helps Angie Pinup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Self Employed Youth Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 German morale unexpectedly rises. Only because Merkel used the W word in her speech this month. And this sort of thing always helps Angie Pinup Grundeinkommen! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guitarman001 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 My feeling is that we've hit bottom and will now start recovering - there are snippets of good news from the US and also from Europe. Even in somewhere like Spain there are good pieces of news, such as the the contract to build the Saudi high speed rail line, and the increase in exports and tourist numbers. I may be completely mis-judging things, but I still think the biggest danger will be hyper-inflation in a couple of years, once the new easy credit and money printing takes effect. I don't think there can be any recovery until the debt is paid down some more... and countries start to become more productive in terms of engineering & manufacturing as opposed to keep pushing the finance line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trampa501 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I don't think there can be any recovery until the debt is paid down some more... and countries start to become more productive in terms of engineering & manufacturing as opposed to keep pushing the finance line. I agree that debt still needs to be paid down (and in some cases eg Greece written off), and didn't I read that UK credit card debt is coming down substantially? But I think we'll start to see people from places like China, Brazil and Turkey start buying more stuff from Europe and the US. Won't be quick, and we have a lot of pain still to go through. But when you see the sheer number of foreign tourists walking through London you realise there are still millions out there willing to buy into British products and services. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammo Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Did someone forget to water Brown's "green shoots"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XswampyX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Did someone forget to water Brown's "green shoots"? Reality has pi$$ed on them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
durhamborn Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 My feeling is that we've hit bottom and will now start recovering - there are snippets of good news from the US and also from Europe. Even in somewhere like Spain there are good pieces of news, such as the the contract to build the Saudi high speed rail line, and the increase in exports and tourist numbers. I may be completely mis-judging things, but I still think the biggest danger will be hyper-inflation in a couple of years, once the new easy credit and money printing takes effect. I see no danger of hyper-inflation,in fact no danger of any inflation next year.The QE/Zirp is nothing compared to the debt destruction.I see commods crashing next year and sterling/$ rising with deflation.I think that will signal the start of a real recovery around the end of 2012. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
council dweller Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yes we 'technically' left recession but as inflation is now 5%, and wages [for most] are pretty flat so standard of living is falling and this dents confidence. As for asset prices house prices are falling, and the stock market is extremely volatile. The BOE/MPC don't really have many options left, and recent behaviour has become extreme in reaction ( I guess this go's with the volatility ). Same for EU (interventions getting larger and larger, and more frequent) Yes, we're going into recession even using the government's fudged standards, this is what I mean of course. If this quarter turns out to be minus then it's certain to impact house prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yes we 'technically' left recession but as inflation is now 5%, and wages [for most] are pretty flat so standard of living is falling and this dents confidence. As for asset prices house prices are falling, and the stock market is extremely volatile. The BOE/MPC don't really have many options left, and recent behaviour has become extreme in reaction ( I guess this go's with the volatility ). Same for EU (interventions getting larger and larger, and more frequent) thats because the BoE/MPC dont make a widget, raise a blade of wheat, or service any car. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
council dweller Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 I see no danger of hyper-inflation,in fact no danger of any inflation next year.The QE/Zirp is nothing compared to the debt destruction.I see commods crashing next year and sterling/$ rising with deflation.I think that will signal the start of a real recovery around the end of 2012. Interesting. I'm looking forward to it, no popcorn but plenty of beans! That's a post to hang on to and tick off (or not as the case may be) I'm sitting on a pile of Yen. What to do? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 (edited) Interesting. I'm looking forward to it, no popcorn but plenty of beans! That's a post to hang on to and tick off (or not as the case may be) I'm sitting on a pile of Yen. What to do? Buy Fondue mmmm, recession,depression, inflation,deflation,biflation,stagflation,dogflation,catflation PROOF Edited October 29, 2011 by Tamara De Lempicka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
council dweller Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Buy Fondue mmmm Yes, that's something I've been looking in to over the past few months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Load up the shot gun and crack open the baked beans. isn't a tin-opener easier? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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