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Recession 100% Certain From Now?

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We actually went in 2007 in lots of sectors. I am not so sure about the view it has to be a recession. So by next year we are 5 years in.

In London ( granted vampire squid and all that old bull) things are definately more buoyant than a year ago.

It's the lack of action that seems to me to typify the trough of the cycle. People are making decisions now on hiring, commercial moving and IT investment.

The prevailing feeling is that we have survived let's gone on with it. Some sectors have changed for ever Retail, motif trade and of course the bloated public sector but that actually has just been intensified by the downturn , various factors meant that they were going to change anyway

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Yes we 'technically' left recession but as inflation is now 5%, and wages [for most] are pretty flat so standard of living is falling and this dents confidence.

As for asset prices house prices are falling, and the stock market is extremely volatile.

The BOE/MPC don't really have many options left, and recent behaviour has become extreme in reaction ( I guess this go's with the volatility ).

Same for EU (interventions getting larger and larger, and more frequent)

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I have a website that tracks the FTSE 350 sectors - http://www.ukindices.blogspot.com/

Most of the major groups are pointing down, and forming Stage 4 declines apart from gas/water utilities, tobacco, and food producers, which are traditional defensive shares. The VIX is below 30, and the general market has decided one direction (you can figure that out, and it is not up). I am certain for a recession for 2012 at this point. Expect a tough winter. Batten down the hatches. Load up the shot gun and crack open the baked beans.

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My feeling is that we've hit bottom and will now start recovering - there are snippets of good news from the US and also from Europe. Even in somewhere like Spain there are good pieces of news, such as the the contract to build the Saudi high speed rail line, and the increase in exports and tourist numbers.

I may be completely mis-judging things, but I still think the biggest danger will be hyper-inflation in a couple of years, once the new easy credit and money printing takes effect.

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My feeling is that we've hit bottom and will now start recovering - there are snippets of good news from the US and also from Europe. Even in somewhere like Spain there are good pieces of news, such as the the contract to build the Saudi high speed rail line, and the increase in exports and tourist numbers.

I may be completely mis-judging things, but I still think the biggest danger will be hyper-inflation in a couple of years, once the new easy credit and money printing takes effect.

I don't think there can be any recovery until the debt is paid down some more... and countries start to become more productive in terms of engineering & manufacturing as opposed to keep pushing the finance line.

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I don't think there can be any recovery until the debt is paid down some more... and countries start to become more productive in terms of engineering & manufacturing as opposed to keep pushing the finance line.

I agree that debt still needs to be paid down (and in some cases eg Greece written off), and didn't I read that UK credit card debt is coming down substantially?

But I think we'll start to see people from places like China, Brazil and Turkey start buying more stuff from Europe and the US. Won't be quick, and we have a lot of pain still to go through. But when you see the sheer number of foreign tourists walking through London you realise there are still millions out there willing to buy into British products and services.

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My feeling is that we've hit bottom and will now start recovering - there are snippets of good news from the US and also from Europe. Even in somewhere like Spain there are good pieces of news, such as the the contract to build the Saudi high speed rail line, and the increase in exports and tourist numbers.

I may be completely mis-judging things, but I still think the biggest danger will be hyper-inflation in a couple of years, once the new easy credit and money printing takes effect.

I see no danger of hyper-inflation,in fact no danger of any inflation next year.The QE/Zirp is nothing compared to the debt destruction.I see commods crashing next year and sterling/$ rising with deflation.I think that will signal the start of a real recovery around the end of 2012.

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Yes we 'technically' left recession but as inflation is now 5%, and wages [for most] are pretty flat so standard of living is falling and this dents confidence.

As for asset prices house prices are falling, and the stock market is extremely volatile.

The BOE/MPC don't really have many options left, and recent behaviour has become extreme in reaction ( I guess this go's with the volatility ).

Same for EU (interventions getting larger and larger, and more frequent)

Yes, we're going into recession even using the government's fudged standards, this is what I mean of course.

If this quarter turns out to be minus then it's certain to impact house prices.

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Yes we 'technically' left recession but as inflation is now 5%, and wages [for most] are pretty flat so standard of living is falling and this dents confidence.

As for asset prices house prices are falling, and the stock market is extremely volatile.

The BOE/MPC don't really have many options left, and recent behaviour has become extreme in reaction ( I guess this go's with the volatility ).

Same for EU (interventions getting larger and larger, and more frequent)

thats because the BoE/MPC dont make a widget, raise a blade of wheat, or service any car.

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I see no danger of hyper-inflation,in fact no danger of any inflation next year.The QE/Zirp is nothing compared to the debt destruction.I see commods crashing next year and sterling/$ rising with deflation.I think that will signal the start of a real recovery around the end of 2012.

Interesting.

I'm looking forward to it, no popcorn but plenty of beans!

That's a post to hang on to and tick off (or not as the case may be)

I'm sitting on a pile of Yen. What to do?

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Interesting.

I'm looking forward to it, no popcorn but plenty of beans!

That's a post to hang on to and tick off (or not as the case may be)

I'm sitting on a pile of Yen. What to do?

Buy Fondue

swiss_fondue.jpg

mmmm, recession,depression, inflation,deflation,biflation,stagflation,dogflation,catflation PROOF

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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