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Ni Price Drops From Peak

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Can someone please help me out here - arguing with friends in respect to the % fall from peak of property in NI. Does anyone have a link to independant data (or a news site) which states this info?

Much indebted (like most of the population...)

D.

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I was going to edit, but couldn't choose what to leave out.

Apologies if linked before.

Next UUJ report (2 on from the one alluded to below) in a couple of weeks, should cement current direction of travel with further drops.

House prices halved since peak

http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/local/house_prices_halved_since_peak_1_2726833

Published on Monday 30 May 2011 08:49

HOUSE prices in Northern Ireland have exactly halved since the peak, a major survey has found.

The Halifax quarterly index shows that property values in the province have fallen 49.9 per cent from their highest point in 2007.

In the first three months of the year, the average home in Northern Ireland was £115,093, according to the lender’s non-seasonally adjusted quarterly data. This contrasted with an average of £229,590 in the second quarter of 2007.

It also represented a drop of 6.6 per cent over the year. The Halifax survey is the first one of its kind to find that prices have dropped by half. The Nationwide’s latest quarterly figures record prices as down 47 per cent from peak.

The University of Ulster survey has also shown a continuing downward trend over the last year, but their statistics point to a slightly lower overall drop of 43 per cent since 2007.

Tom McClelland, of the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, told the News Letter that taking an average of the findings in the three main surveys would roughly tally with his own assessment. In some areas, he added, prices had dropped by more than half.

“Some recent repossession sales are showing price decreases of over 60 per cent and are back at levels where first time buyers can comfortably afford to enter the market,” Mr McClelland said.

“But the average drop across Northern Ireland is probably in and around 50 per cent down from the 2007 peak.

The RICS are hoping that activity levels will increase over the next three months as would be expected in a summer market.”

Jonathan Davis, an economist and wealth manager who in 2007 predicted the house price collapse, says that the 50 per cent drop in Northern Ireland is the biggest fall in UK recorded house price history.

The house price bubble has been the biggest economic disaster for Northern Ireland,” he said.

Mr Davis believes prices remain too high relative to average incomes, and are also vulnerable to forthcoming cuts in public expenditure.

However, many estate agents have reported an increase in activity in recent months, and predict that the bottom of the market has been reached.

Meanwhile, in Great Britain prices resumed their downward trend in May as demand from potential buyers weakened following the long bank holiday weekends.

Estate agents recorded a 0.5 per cent drop in the number of househunters registering with them, the first fall for three months, according to housing intelligence firm Hometrack.

ANALYSIS; Ben Lowry, news editor, Newsletter

IT has happened gradually, and so has lacked the impact of a more sudden drop.

But, barely noticed, Northern Ireland house prices are now 50 per cent down from peak.

The housing bubble ruined some lives, yet many people seem to think high prices will return.

Certainly some homeowners have extraordinary hopes: it is not unusual to see one house for sale at, say, £220,000 and an exact equivalent house on the same street asking £300,000.

Perhaps such optimists will one day be justified in holding out. Or perhaps Northern Ireland will do a Japan (Tokyo prices are 45 per cent down from the 1991 peak).

If this happens, Ulster prices will remain depressed until 2027 or later.

Stormont has barely discussed the matter. This is partly because house prices are out the assembly’s control.

But you would think they would have found some way of examining how much damage has been done by the 2005-07 myth that ‘you can’t go wrong with property’.

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Evidence from my own little patch shows that sales are being achieved at 60% below peak prices at the moment with no sign that we are near the bottom. My guess is that we will be 70% below peak before there is any reason to think prices will not go down any further. We cover a medium/large sized town and a large rural area so this is not to be expected in Belfast and surrounding areas where there is an obvious draw for jobs and lifestyle. Repos will be up next year and EA closures set to increase too. It will certainly be a harsh one.

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Location Peak to Now UUJ

South Belfast -28%

Mid & South Down -39%

West Belfast -43%

Craigavon/Armagh -43%

East Antrim -44%

Lisburn -44%

Antrim/Ballymena -44%

L'derry/Strabane -44%

Belfast - All -45%

Northern Ireland -All -45%

North Down -45%

East Belfast -48%

Col /Limavady/N. Coast -51%

/Fermanagh/S.Tyrone -56%

North Belfast -56%

Mid Ulster -58%

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Location Peak to Now UUJ

South Belfast -28%

Mid & South Down -39%

West Belfast -43%

Craigavon/Armagh -43%

East Antrim -44%

Lisburn -44%

Antrim/Ballymena -44%

L'derry/Strabane -44%

Belfast - All -45%

Northern Ireland -All -45%

North Down -45%

East Belfast -48%

Col /Limavady/N. Coast -51%

/Fermanagh/S.Tyrone -56%

North Belfast -56%

Mid Ulster -58%

I remember houses in the village area of south Belfast selling for ~180k during the peak Looked recently and they are in and around 30 - 40k these days. Does anyone know an area with bigger drops that that ?

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I remember houses in the village area of south Belfast selling for ~180k during the peak Looked recently and they are in and around 30 - 40k these days. Does anyone know an area with bigger drops that that ?

I'd say any of the big apartment development could be down similar amounts. Especially if banks/holding companies released the repossessed one.

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I remember houses in the village area of south Belfast selling for ~180k during the peak Looked recently and they are in and around 30 - 40k these days. Does anyone know an area with bigger drops that that ?

Short answer, no - in terms of % asking price drop.

However I am aware of several vacant bust developer properties in Downpatrick which haven't sold in 3 yrs and of course due to location and poor quality aren't suitable for the social housing get-out clause. Qouile Cresent is actually up as a job lot.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/halffinished-homes-for-sale-as-property-firm-hits-trouble-16012063.html

Folly Court - don't be fooled by the 'artwork' - and yes, aptly named.

http://www.propertynews.com/Property/Downpatrick/ARFARF1362/1-Folly-Court/

There's also many rural (and indeed urban) projects which are at various stages of mould, going nowhere and unlikely to - ever.

I raise these examples because the ultimate result for the likes of these and many others, including apartments, may be to bulldoze them - the ultimate drop in value. That's how spectacularly wrong the developers and banks have got things.

Saving face (or just incompetence and legal wrangling) hanging on and hoping to sell the unsellable later will soon, if it hasn't done so already, turn out to be an expensive option - a luxury unaffordable to the banks and an affront to common sense.

Lets see how much longer it takes for the banks to realise, or be forced to realise, that these disasters are millstones around their commercial necks and that they need to move on. With NAMA circling overhead, who will shoot first and who can afford to be left behind. I would expect it to turn dog-eat-dog nasty between the banks in the next 12 months in terms of property disposal.

Nothing focuses the mind like survival.

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I remember houses in the village area of south Belfast selling for ~180k during the peak Looked recently and they are in and around 30 - 40k these days. Does anyone know an area with bigger drops that that ?

The Kilcooly estate in Bangor has had the exact same price drops. An agent told me they sold one at at £185k, saw one sell at auction a few months ago for £34k.

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  • 277 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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