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FTBagain

Factory Gate Inflation Up

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I think it is called an 'up side risk'! It will depend on how much the retailers pass on, but I would be surprised if inflation fell, especially as the BoE cut rates last time.

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No change to interest rates this year IMO in light of this (and other data). I do think CPI will rise a point or two over the next few months though - but MPC is now paralysed after their last unexpected 5-4 cut. Not sure they have scope for another cut at the moment and will "wait and see" how retail figures pan out over the winter (along with inflation and HPs).

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No change to interest rates this year IMO in light of this (and other data). I do think CPI will rise a point or two over the next few months though - but MPC is now paralysed after their last unexpected 5-4 cut. Not sure they have scope for another cut at the moment and will "wait and see" how retail figures pan out over the winter (along with inflation and HPs).

The MPC are caught between a rock and a hard place; Industry and homeowneres are screaming for a rate cut, but they are all forgetting the one vital factor.

OIL

The sustained high oil prices are now starting to feed through to factory gate prices and raw material (transport costs and manufacturing fuel costs)

This will lead to inflation increasing more and more quickly; requiring a significant interest rate rise to stop the £ effectively being de valued through high rates

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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