Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
spyguy

The Uk Recovery Has No Area Of Strength

Recommended Posts

So, the UK has been stumbling for 4 years now.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10/24/710106/stagnation-beckons-for-the-uk/

I still think were are going to see the loss of all HP since 2001ish.

The north will be back to mid 90s values - basically reversing the 00s boom AND the 80s mini boom.

Still Im sure we all had a good time buying cr*p at the shopping centres and stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All well and good but for the average person with an average job and an average lifestyle, what will be the effect of half a trillion pounds more of QE?

A rapidly declining standard of living.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still think were are going to see the loss of all HP since 2001ish.

The north will be back to mid 90s values - basically reversing the 00s boom AND the 80s mini boom.

In real terms perhaps, but not in nominal terms. Actual inflation (as opposed to BoE, fantasy inflation) has been running at 5% plus for more than a few years.

I agree about some areas of the North. I remember working with a guy in London who was a wannabe BTL landlord. Asked him what he was doing for the weekend one Friday in 2004. He was off "up north" to Oldham then Wallsend for a property lecture and then a "buying tour".

I hail from Newcastle and am constantly amazed at the price of property there vs the poor job situation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
More QE is on its way, writes Citigroup. A lot more.
Using the MPC’s rule of thumb that the previous £200bn QE programme lifted real GDP by 1.5-2.0%, it would take about £375bn-£500n of additional QE (making £575bn-£700bn in total) to reverse that prospective undershoot in real GDP over 2011-13

Marc Faber is correct. All they know how to do is print money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In real terms perhaps, but not in nominal terms. Actual inflation (as opposed to BoE, fantasy inflation) has been running at 5% plus for more than a few years.

I agree about some areas of the North. I remember working with a guy in London who was a wannabe BTL landlord. Asked him what he was doing for the weekend one Friday in 2004. He was off "up north" to Oldham then Wallsend for a property lecture and then a "buying tour".

I hail from Newcastle and am constantly amazed at the price of property there vs the poor job situation.

I completely agree, as a fellow (adopted) Geordie. The prices are still mind boggling if you consider how much people earn.

But then, Geordies are the masters of the benefit system. They'll know what they're entitled to and claim every possible penny. I walk my dog through Bensham and just can't believe the number of new cars out there. Amazing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A rapidly declining standard of living.

Pretty much.

They must be hoping China blows up but hope is not a credible strategy and have they not heard that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent? Something hpc-ers know all too well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, the UK has been stumbling for 4 years now.

http://ftalphaville....ons-for-the-uk/

I still think were are going to see the loss of all HP since 2001ish.

The north will be back to mid 90s values - basically reversing the 00s boom AND the 80s mini boom.

Still Im sure we all had a good time buying cr*p at the shopping centres and stuff.

It's very difficult for businesses to start up or expand in the current climate. The main reason for this is that the cost of living is just too high so the would-be entrepreneurs (not BTL spivs) are forced to take safe but unprofitable options for jobs and businesses (if they can get them).

One possible way out of this situation would be to encourage tenders for government and big-business contracts to go to smaller firms rather than Serco, G4S and their ilk.

Cost of living (of which housing costs are probably the biggest single factor) needs to come down dramatically and this means (but isn't limited to) an end to subsidies for people occupying more space than they need. If you have a big house and can afford to run it, then that's all well and good but any SMI should return for an equity stake in your property.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HPI and MEW are the only thing we've got left. That is why the government is making HPI its mission in life.

If there actually is a substantial pullback in prices, basically half the country would be bankrupt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HPI and MEW are the only thing we've got left. That is why the government is making HPI its mission in life.

If there actually is a substantial pullback in prices, basically half the country would be bankrupt.

Maybe the country needs to go bankrupt so we can hit the metaphorical 'reset' button and start again from firmer foundations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe the country needs to go bankrupt so we can hit the metaphorical 'reset' button and start again from firmer foundations.

Thats what I think needs to happen. In a debt based money system where the other side of money is debt.. for every person with tens or hundreds of millions in money, there is an equal and opposite amount of debt that is probably owed by a bunch of people. At some point when they simply cannot pay that debt back, they have to default on it. And then it must disappear from the account of they guy with all that money.

As we saw in the financial crisis once a few companies start defaulting, it would quickly create a cascading mass default, where most money is wiped out.

But on the day after we would both have the debt mainly gone, and a more level playing field. And all of our capital would still be there, just the abstraction of the financial system would have changed in the background.

All that would change is who holds the wealth.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.