Expats Cancelling Plans To Return To Uk

[Kurt Barlow]

What are you on about ? The Arabs still have on average 250 yrs of oil left ! I suppose we could double the amount of Poundshops and coffee shops to compete.

They are one of our largest customers and you speak to them like that . They have cash and not much debt in real terms, look up the CIA Debt ratios for every country and you will find that most Arab countries have a very low debt ratio. The Duke of Westminster owns most of London not the people.

At current production rates - 250 years? Lay off the crack pipe

BTW I work directly for the largest Producer

Edited October 25, 2011 by Kurt Barlow

[madpenguin]

At current production rates - 250 years? Lay off the crack pipe

BTW I work directly for the largest Producer

On the eve of the Iraq war (the latest one) the BBC had a money program special called "the Oil Wars" which had a load of oil company bigwigs discussing the upcoming shortages.

One guy claimed that in 7 years wells would start to run dry, with Iraq's oil online it would be extended to 14 years, they also predicted a rash of smaller wars all around oil, guess looking at Libya they were right.

Look for more "dictators who need to be ousted" in Africa and South America, think North Korea are pretty safe unless they strike substantial oil reserves!

[Kurt Barlow]

On the eve of the Iraq war (the latest one) the BBC had a money program special called "the Oil Wars" which had a load of oil company bigwigs discussing the upcoming shortages.

One guy claimed that in 7 years wells would start to run dry, with Iraq's oil online it would be extended to 14 years, they also predicted a rash of smaller wars all around oil, guess looking at Libya they were right.

Look for more "dictators who need to be ousted" in Africa and South America, think North Korea are pretty safe unless they strike substantial oil reserves!

Lets just say there are plenty or vertical wells going in on fields that we were reliably told would last out until 2040/50

[madpenguin]

Lets just say there are plenty or vertical wells going in on fields that we were reliably told would last out until 2040/50

Thanks for the tip I'll order my solar panels today and start looking at alternative fuel cars!

Edited October 25, 2011 by madpenguin

[steve99]

At current production rates - 250 years? Lay off the crack pipe

BTW I work directly for the largest Producer

What do you think Saudi's real reserves are? struggling to keep the current flows going? as much as they like to proclaim as per 'supplier of last resort' etc? Just curious. I get the impression that we (the world has had more or less flat production of nice oil for the last few years.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

What do you think Saudi's real reserves are? struggling to keep the current flows going? as much as they like to proclaim as per 'supplier of last resort' etc? Just curious. I get the impression that we (the world has had more or less flat production of nice oil for the last few years.

No one knows for sure.

AFAIK they have started on EOR. Horizontal drilling, gas/surfactant injection, fracking, they are all options.

I think your statement of the end of easy oil is basically correct. it is now largely no longer possible to drill a hole in the ground and have the stuff shoot out in a gusher. But there is still a hell of a lot that can be done to produce more out of existing fields and also to develop new fields in harder to reach places (the artic etc).

Saudi oil is going to become less important as shale gas takes hold in the US/Europe and Brazil/artic comes on stream. But it's still going to be a major producer for a good time yet IMHO.

[Kurt Barlow]

What do you think Saudi's real reserves are? struggling to keep the current flows going? as much as they like to proclaim as per 'supplier of last resort' etc? Just curious. I get the impression that we (the world has had more or less flat production of nice oil for the last few years.

Who knows but just look at the evidence in the public eye

Mad rush to bring Manifa online (nasty sour vanadium rich oil hardly anyone wants)

NGL / condensate pipeline going in now from Shaybah to Abqaiq

Exploration in the Red Sea

Rig Count up from 35 to 130

Massive investments in Sea water injection plant. for Ghawar

[Kurt Barlow]

No one knows for sure.

AFAIK they have started on EOR. Horizontal drilling, gas/surfactant injection, fracking, they are all options.

I think your statement of the end of easy oil is basically correct. it is now largely no longer possible to drill a hole in the ground and have the stuff shoot out in a gusher. But there is still a hell of a lot that can be done to produce more out of existing fields and also to develop new fields in harder to reach places (the artic etc).

Saudi oil is going to become less important as shale gas takes hold in the US/Europe and Brazil/artic comes on stream. But it's still going to be a major producer for a good time yet IMHO.

They have been horizontal drilling for years - Shaybah well maps looks like a Christmas tree. Thats half the problem. It allows high production but when the water cut hits the depth of the well production falls off a cliff

The other elephant in the room is that the gulf states appear incapable of any form of energy conservation. 91 octane petrol here is about 10p a litre. I saw a quote the other day where we were charging a contractor 1.7 cents / kwh for electricity supplied to an accommodation camp. Consumption is rising rapidly taking a greater and greater share of production.

Edited October 25, 2011 by Kurt Barlow

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

They have been horizontal drilling for years - Shaybah well maps looks like a Christmas tree. Thats half the problem. It allows high production but when the water cut hits the depth of the well production falls off a cliff

The other elephant in the room is that the gulf states appear incapable of any form of energy conservation. 91 octane petrol here is about 10p a litre. I saw a quote the other day where we were charging a contractor 1.7 cents / kwh for electricity supplied to an accommodation camp. Consumption is rising rapidly taking a greater and greater share of production.

I agree horizontal drilling has been going on for some time, but only recently has the geostreeing technique actually been developed well enough to actually make the well compatible with the geology, so I doubt that the wells are that overdeveloped in that respect. Previous formation drilling will of course affect the ability to implement this.

As regards energy conservation, economics should take care of that.

For resource estimates, I've seen all sorts of wild guesses. Some claim that there is another 90 years production at current rates from Saudi. Now let's say that estimate is 3x wide of the mark. That gives another 30 years of production at current levels. In other words, hardly imminent.

[@contradevian]

Only reason to return to UK is the NHS and welfare payments. In that respect UK is unequalled in Europe. It's what makes it a magnet for migrants (and I actually respect UK's stand on this issue...it is morally the right thing to do). In every other respect it's just squalid.

In UK, if you're lucky, you can work all year and save up to spend a few weeks somewhere nice and civilized. Or you could just emigrate and live somewhere like that all the time.

French NHS is far superior to the UK NHS. They kept by dad alive for years, when I think the NHS would have got fed up of him and killed him off. French Docs are used to putting sick Brits right after years in the hands of the "best health service in the world" in the same way French garages are used to putting Brit cars right after years of "non servicing" by British garages.

You can claim dole in France. It helps a lot of your read, write, and speak French, as the French have this crazy trick of not providing forms in a hundred different languages, or provide you with an expensive translator. Fancy that!

Work is a bit hard to come by unless you have an amazing specialty. Then again you could say that about the UK. I'd stay put in France, its a lovely country, and not even consider a return to "perfidious Albion."

Edited October 25, 2011 by John Steed

[redwine]

French NHS is far superior to the UK NHS. They kept by dad alive for years, when I think the NHS would have got fed up of him and killed him off. French Docs are used to putting sick Brits right after years in the hands of the "best health service in the world" in the same way French garages are used to putting Brit cars right after years of "non servicing" by British garages.

You can claim dole in France. It helps a lot of your read, write, and speak French, as the French have this crazy trick of not providing forms in a hundred different languages, or provide you with an expensive translator. Fancy that!

Work is a bit hard to come by unless you have an amazing specialty. Then again you could say that about the UK. I'd stay put in France, its a lovely country, and not even consider a return to "perfidious Albion."

The French Health Service is also not free!

You are either in the system and even then you will need to pay a private top up as well!

Better when compared to the UK ?

TBH I don't know there are good and bad in the two countries

As for the garages again it all depends upon your garage

I can't see how signing on the dole helps you to speak French?

Being on the dole means that you are more than often alone and isolated with no contact or social/ work life

As for work theres lots of work were i live next to Geneva for the skilled and the unskilled

The real problem for many Brits in France is that they live in cheap property, rural, high unemployment France

Then they complain that its hard to find a job where even the locals can't find work!

[Mrs Bear]

And the news today ... cutting back on education spending for 4-5 year olds and 16 - 18 year olds.

That's all going to help with the yob culture and youth unemployment isn't it.

Also heard on Radio4 breakfast show that most of the rioters were in fact the uneducated youth, and not 'gangs' as the government first pushed out there. I feel they didn't want us to know the real problem that is brewing. A disenfranchised youth willing to riot without the suggested mass organisation of gang culture. More on the way I suspect. This is not good people.

A fair proportion of the rioters had been excluded from school, so I doubt they'd be panting to take any educational opportunities anyway. Actual schools (classroom) spending is dropping by 1%.

When kids are excluded from school, I can't think why the hell they're not made to go somewhere else instead.

And be made to learn to read and write to a reasonable standard. I gather that the reason a lot of them muck about and get excluded in the first place is because they've never cracked reading, are often ashamed to admit it, and so can't cope with lessons.

I forget what proportion of the prison population has literacy problems, but it's pretty high.

[South Lorne]

A fair proportion of the rioters had been excluded from school, so I doubt they'd be panting to take any educational opportunities anyway. Actual schools (classroom) spending is dropping by 1%.

When kids are excluded from school, I can't think why the hell they're not made to go somewhere else instead.

And be made to learn to read and write to a reasonable standard. I gather that the reason a lot of them muck about and get excluded in the first place is because they've never cracked reading, are often ashamed to admit it, and so can't cope with lessons.

I forget what proportion of the prison population has literacy problems, but it's pretty high.

...I think the guy who writes bestsellers under the name Andy McNab learned nothing at school and all his reading and writing was taught to him in the army ....and he learned....it's two way....says a lot....

[Kurt Barlow]

I agree horizontal drilling has been going on for some time, but only recently has the geostreeing technique actually been developed well enough to actually make the well compatible with the geology, so I doubt that the wells are that overdeveloped in that respect. Previous formation drilling will of course affect the ability to implement this.

As regards energy conservation, economics should take care of that.

For resource estimates, I've seen all sorts of wild guesses. Some claim that there is another 90 years production at current rates from Saudi. Now let's say that estimate is 3x wide of the mark. That gives another 30 years of production at current levels. In other words, hardly imminent.

Not whilst the Government instructs the producers to sell at well below market prices. Petrol 10p a litre, Electricity - 1.1p a kwh when much of it is produced in OCGT?

I drove past a large housing development today. 6 inch block work being used - hmmm, not much sign of conservation going on at 1.1p kwh.

[Spoony]

Exactly. I also lived in Germany for many years, and the health and welfare provision there is at least as generous as ours, probably more so.

When you actually ask them, the main reasons why people migrate to particular countries are:

1) They have relatives or friends there.

2) They speak at least a bit of the language.

3) It's a safe place for them and their kids.

4) There's a reasonable chance of getting work.

The level of benefits is rarely a consideration - "benefit tourism" is largely a media myth.

Not in the UK - it isn't! Where else can you claim benefits for children who are aren't even resident!?

[South Lorne]

Not in the UK - it isn't! Where else can you claim benefits for children who are aren't even resident!?

...agreed ...the list is naive ....Germany and France held off from taking immigrants from the East Euro countries as and when they were admitted to the market ....their Governments at least then were smart ...ours thick ...or they had a political motive....the French and Germans realised their basic structures would have been affected....do you know of any Euro country paying benefits out to UK citizens on similar scales...or any scale...?....that is the acid test ....

[Clocker]

Get a gun !

[Mrs Bear]

...I think the guy who writes bestsellers under the name Andy McNab learned nothing at school and all his reading and writing was taught to him in the army ....and he learned....it's two way....says a lot....

Yes, they've got to want to learn, but it must be hard even to admit you can't read, or can barely read - people apparently go to endless lengths to cover up.

I was once sent on an adult literacy course, don't know why, not really relevant to my job, but a real eye-opener. Among other things they gave us a sheet of back-to-front print to make out, and then asked us qs. on what we'd read. Of course we'd all been so busy making out the words we mostly hadn't taken in much, if any, of the content. As the instructor pointed out, this is what poor readers have to cope with every single day.

[abroad]

..do you know of any Euro country paying benefits out to UK citizens on similar scales...or any scale...?....that is the acid test ....

Any UK citizen resident in any EU country is entitled by law to the same benefits as the locals, what is your point on this, does this pass your acid test.... ? Welfare benefits in the two countries(Belgium/Germany) that I have direct knowledge of are better than the UK with respect to unemployment, so please put some facts behind your hyperbole. Sweden has historically always had the highest number of Asylum seekers in Europe.In France something like 1 in 5 second generation have at least one immigrant parent. I could go on but I suspect you'll disappear now....

Edited October 26, 2011 by abroad

[DustyDog]

Any UK citizen resident in any EU country is entitled by law to the same benefits as the locals, what is your point on this, does this pass your acid test.... ? Welfare benefits in the two countries(Belgium/Germany) that I have direct knowledge of are better than the UK with respect to unemployment, so please put some facts behind your hyperbole. Sweden has historically always had the highest number of Asylum seekers in Europe.In France something like 1 in 5 second generation have at least one immigrant parent. I could go on but I suspect you'll disappear now....

This statement is not true in Spain.

Foreigners here do not qualify for benefits unless they are Spanish nationals or have paid into the Spanish tax system for a number of years.

UK nationals cannot just come over here and sign on. If they could then why would any unemployed person want to be in the UK? If your skint, better skint in the sun than the rain.

[efdemin]

This statement is not true in Spain.

Foreigners here do not qualify for benefits unless they are Spanish nationals or have paid into the Spanish tax system for a number of years.

UK nationals cannot just come over here and sign on. If they could then why would any unemployed person want to be in the UK? If your skint, better skint in the sun than the rain.

It is true in a sense isn't it? They just have different rules that mean it's a lot easier for locals to qualify. Still meets the wording of the EU agreement.

Our politicians are definitely at fault for making the UK rules too open (to benefit fraud, to benefit tourism, etc.).

[snowflux]

Lifted shamelessly from Wikipedia, where references are given:

Benefit tourism by EU citizens has been described as unfounded and misleading by research organisations. A major study by the Centre for Research and Migration at University College London, published in 2009, demonstrated that EU migrants to Britain from the new member countries were better educated, more likely to be in employment and much less likely to be claiming benefits than UK-born nationals.

Scare stories of benefits tourism propagated by some media in the UK have been described as 'baseless' by the Migrants' Rights Network, which in March 2011 pointed out that EU migrants must meet the usual Habitual Residence Tests in order to register for British National Insurance (without a National Insurance number you can't receive any benefits), and are in fact moving to other areas of the EU where employment opportunities are better.

Edit: So you can't just walk into the UK and claim benefits. Which figures really, otherwise why would all these Eastern Europeans be doing the crap jobs in our fields and restaurants that we don't want to do?

Edited October 26, 2011 by snowflux

[abroad]

This statement is not true in Spain.

Foreigners here do not qualify for benefits unless they are Spanish nationals or have paid into the Spanish tax system for a number of years.

UK nationals cannot just come over here and sign on. If they could then why would any unemployed person want to be in the UK? If your skint, better skint in the sun than the rain.

By EU law you cannot in any way discriminate against other EU nationals, anything that applies to British must also apply to locals. Therefore the same rules on getting enough unemployment insurance must apply. Its one of the central points of the EU rules on free movement of people. Countries who discriminate in any way are prosecuted by the EU. This is why EU Dr's cannot be tested for English proficiency in the UK as we don't do it for UK nationals.

[@contradevian]

This statement is not true in Spain.

Foreigners here do not qualify for benefits unless they are Spanish nationals or have paid into the Spanish tax system for a number of years.

UK nationals cannot just come over here and sign on. If they could then why would any unemployed person want to be in the UK? If your skint, better skint in the sun than the rain.

I knew some people who moved back to UK from Spain, due to not being able to access the health service (they were not of retirement age). Probably had to pay for it! I believe the French also tightened up.

[davidg]

Countries who discriminate in any way are prosecuted by the EU.

The UK is currently being prosecuted by the EU for applying what it considers to be "discriminatory" residence rules. There was an Economist article about this a couple of weeks ago.