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World Power Swings Back To America

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8844646/World-power-swings-back-to-America.html

The American phoenix is slowly rising again. Within five years or so, the US will be well on its way to self-sufficiency in fuel and energy. Manufacturing will have closed the labour gap with China in a clutch of key industries. The current account might even be in surplus.

Bye bye China.

Thanks for all the cheap sh1t.

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Why would you believe AEP? He's just a shill for the form of Anglo-Saxon capitalism which has bankrupted us all.

I don't 'believe' AEP.

It's bleedin' obvious.

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Within five years or so, the US will be well on its way to self-sufficiency in fuel and energy

Have I missed some sort of breakthrough in cold fusion or something?

Take the North Dakota's Bakken shale region:

According to Harold Hamm, president of the energy company Continental Resources, it could produce a million barrels a day by 2020.

That's only a fraction of the 9.8 million barrels a day the country produces and an even smaller fraction of the 19.2 million it consumes, but it's significant.

It's a good development for the US but how long will it last?

"It's going to have a major impact on the United States reducing imports," Scott Sheffield, head of Pioneer Natural Resources Company, said Tuesday during a packed roundtable discussion on shale oil at CERA's annual energy conference in Houston.

Sheffield estimates that with the new technology, the country could produce an extra 2 million barrels a day from both the Bakken and from shale oil trapped in existing traditional oil fields.

Isn't this going to be like the early 80s all over again. Cheaper oil meaning that people will stick with their old, wasteful habits and continue driving their SUVs?

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But... but... zerohedge keeps predicting TEOTWAWKI for the US of A...

Do you mean they might be...... WRONG ????

:D:D

To repeat the Sage of Omaha "never short the US". Too many natural resources still untapped to lose out in the long run to the Chinese. Plus they have a lot of bombs which helps.

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in 5 years US debt will be over $20trillion, possibly worse if the economy at any point, falters.

US gdp growth slashed from 2.5% to 1.6% this year. 2012 outlook cut from 2.7% to 2%.

things arent moving just because some guy said so in the telegraph.

Edited by mfp123

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To repeat the Sage of Omaha "never short the US". Too many natural resources still untapped to lose out in the long run to the Chinese. Plus they have a lot of bombs which helps.

Well he would say that wouldn't he? I'm one of the few Buffet sceptics - not of his wealth but of his motives and all this home spun schtick is dangerous.

1. In 2005 he said there was no housing bubble, never talk down America etc.

2. Self styled free market cheerleader personally counselled Bush and Obama to bail out bust banks thus saving Goldmans.....which he invested in.

3. Called derivative "financial weapons of mass destruction" but invested in them anyway.

4. Says Bank of America is a quality business and brand but buys not ordinary stock but preferred stock.

5. Never short America.......as he buys a railroad company for billions.

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Why would you believe AEP? He's just a shill for the form of Anglo-Saxon capitalism which has bankrupted us all.

The same goes for the Torygraph in general, an Anglo-Saxon, neo liberal, debt is wealth cheerleading rag.

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I'm inclined to agree with Bart that the net effect of increased oil production will be lessened by wasteful domestic consumption. However, it may stop them bombing the shit out of the middle east, so we should be grateful for small mercies! :ph34r:

On the subject of China though, he has a point. As China becomes increasingly expensive in terms of wages they are going to lose a lot of the manufacturing that chases the cheapest option, whether this will return to the US, or just move to Thailand, or wherever the next cheapest place is, remains to be seen.

There will certainly be a strong political undercurrent in the US to encourage "in-sourcing", the 99% movement are sure to have an impact on next year's presidential election.

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Have I missed some sort of breakthrough in cold fusion or something?

Take the North Dakota's Bakken shale region:

It's a good development for the US but how long will it last?

Isn't this going to be like the early 80s all over again. Cheaper oil meaning that people will stick with their old, wasteful habits and continue driving their SUVs?

Not just shale oil. Gas is ramping up big time as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_gas_in_the_United_States

Whether you believe the reserve estimates or not, it's still a massive play.

It's an interesting question whether they will piss it away, or use the revenue to establish a more sustainable energy base, but certainly the demise of the US in hydrocarbon terms has been greatly exaggerated.

I expect we will see similar in Europe and the UK.

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To repeat the Sage of Omaha "never short the US". Too many natural resources still untapped to lose out in the long run to the Chinese. Plus they have a lot of bombs which helps.

The trouble with the long run is you need to get through the short run to get there.

In the short run, half the country will striking against benefit cuts and the other half striking against benefit provision.

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I'm inclined to agree with Bart that the net effect of increased oil production will be lessened by wasteful domestic consumption. However, it may stop them bombing the shit out of the middle east, so we should be grateful for small mercies! :ph34r:

On the subject of China though, he has a point. As China becomes increasingly expensive in terms of wages they are going to lose a lot of the manufacturing that chases the cheapest option, whether this will return to the US, or just move to Thailand, or wherever the next cheapest place is, remains to be seen.

There will certainly be a strong political undercurrent in the US to encourage "in-sourcing", the 99% movement are sure to have an impact on next year's presidential election.

its the natural effect of the market. as countires become wealthier wages increase.

after china it will move to india, south america, vietnam, thailand, indonesia.

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Well he would say that wouldn't he? I'm one of the few Buffet sceptics - not of his wealth but of his motives and all this home spun schtick is dangerous.

1. In 2005 he said there was no housing bubble, never talk down America etc.

2. Self styled free market cheerleader personally counselled Bush and Obama to bail out bust banks thus saving Goldmans.....which he invested in.

3. Called derivative "financial weapons of mass destruction" but invested in them anyway.

4. Says Bank of America is a quality business and brand but buys not ordinary stock but preferred stock.

5. Never short America.......as he buys a railroad company for billions.

I Link?

2 Didn't counsel Bush at all. Agree he counselled Obama.

3 Wrong..he didn't invest as he told shareholders at the annual sheebang way back when. The reason he gave was that he didn't invest in anything he didn't understand or could read the balance sheet on.

4 BOA is a quality business as far as banks go. I have my money there and I am OK with that.

5 Don't quite see your point there.

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But... but... zerohedge keeps predicting TEOTWAWKI for the US of A...

Do you mean they might be...... WRONG ????

:D:D

Heaven forfend.

I'd bet they're long gold though. :D

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People (mostly US-based) over on the Ticker Forums aren't having any (well, much) of it:

I thought shale was net negative in terms of energy output after extraction -- and even then was only financially viable above $200.
Did I miss some technological breakthrough?

Although:

Turning shale into oil/gas takes enormous amounts of energy. That a whole other discussion.
What they're talking about is breaking through shale layers to actual oil/gas reserves.

And then...

Evans-Pritchard wrote..
The US already meets 72pc of its own oil needs, up from around 50pc a decade ago.

http://205.254.135.24/pub/oil_gas/petrol....' rel="external nofollow">
What the hell has this guy been smoking and snorting?
Worse and more delusional than anything Nancy Pelosi has said in public
. His statement insanely dismisses four decades of historical fact.

And some more:

Yep, mostly ********...

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Less known is that the technology of hydraulic fracturing - breaking rocks with jets of water - will also bring a quantum leap in shale oil supply, mostly from the Bakken fields in North Dakota, Eagle Ford in Texas, and other reserves across the Mid-West.

...OK ...but:

Britain’s New Media Darling

- Online Monday, October 24, 2011

Shale gas could be the solution to so many of our nation’s problems, from cutting the fiscal deficit to reducing the burden on consumers. A bright future of abundant, cheap energy beckons if only ministers would stop posing as environmental crusaders and start thinking of the real interests of the British people. —Leo McKinstry, Daily Express, 24 October 2011

For Britain, the implications are profound. The arrival of commercial shale gas on world markets could make nuclear power and offshore wind look very expensive. Dieter Helm, professor of energy policy at Oxford University, believes a rapid switch to electricity generation by gas, which has about half the emissions of coal, could save the taxpayer billions, cut household bills and bring about faster falls in CO2 emissions.—Tim Rayment , The Sunday Times, 23 October 2011

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/41625

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And then...

Evans-Pritchard wrote..
The US already meets 72pc of its own oil needs, up from around 50pc a decade ago.

http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/foreign_oil_dependence.cfm' rel="external nofollow">

imports_domestic_petro_shares_demand-large.gif

Reliance on Petroleum Imports has Declined
U.S. dependence on imported oil has dramatically declined since peaking in 2005. This trend is the result of a variety of factors including a decline in consumption and shifts in supply patterns.2 The economic downturn after the financial crisis of 2008, improvements in efficiency, changes in consumer behavior and patterns of economic growth, all contributed to the decline in petroleum consumption. At the same time, increased use of domestic biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel), and strong gains in domestic production of crude oil and natural gas plant liquids expanded domestic supplies and reduced the need for imports.
Unless there has been a huge shift in the past year and Americans have stopped driving it's hard to see where that figure has come from.

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Since 2007 more than a million people have emigrated to the US legally each year.

In 1950 the number was 249,188, source ..... idiots guide.

Loads more enter illegally of course.

These people are all voting with their feet for a set of reasons that are probably worth betting on, if the odds are there.

The sheer critical mass of the US is breathtaking.

It isn't the Titanic.

It's the iceberg and the water remains mighty cold out there.

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Possibly if America dismantles the regulatory state, much manufacturing could return. But right now for most serious industrial enterprise, in America they face a wall of regulations. The go beyond extreme costs and delays to doing business.. often their business is simply not allowed to operate there.

What we could see is some lower end manufacturing leaving China and heading to nations like Vietnam, the Phillipines, Indonesia, Bangladesh.

On the bright side American politicians are for the first time talking about out of control regulations and its impact on business. Rick Perry said outright that the EPA should be called the job killing agency.

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Possibly if America dismantles the regulatory state, much manufacturing could return. But right now for most serious industrial enterprise, in America they face a wall of regulations. The go beyond extreme costs and delays to doing business.. often their business is simply not allowed to operate there.

What we could see is some lower end manufacturing leaving China and heading to nations like Vietnam, the Phillipines, Indonesia, Bangladesh.

On the bright side American politicians are for the first time talking about out of control regulations and its impact on business. Rick Perry said outright that the EPA should be called the job killing agency.

Rick Perry the Republican texas governor that isnt President lol, is he offering change aswell.

By the way how is your EU referendum going what with Labour , Nick and Dave bursting for one no doubt the date is already set* Hows Sir Vince of "We must stop QE or risk zimbabwe" Cable

The beauty about Politics is you can talk complete sh!t contrary to actions and the popn will either believe you and excuse you or believe you and forget it and if you are really lucky youll catch an upswing in the debt cycle and people wonder why govt would rather hit and hope at the expense of reality and their popns rather than fix problems

Its rather a cruel twist of fate that Hope is one of the best human traits, whilst being the most abusable and Politicians exist off that abuse, Perry is the archetypal example, maybe even more so than Cee You Next Tuesday bama. At least with Bush people recognised he was a cretin from Day1

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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But... but... zerohedge keeps predicting TEOTWAWKI for the US of A...

Do you mean they might be...... WRONG ????

:D:D

Maybe this is why the US is on the way to more energy self-sufficiency? A partial (but not total) economic collapse could cut oil demand way back :)

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  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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