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Home Owners Increasingly Pessimistic On Property Values

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Home owners are not expecting house prices to rise in the foreseeable future, marking a sharp reversal in consumer confidence.

The latest Knight Frank / Markit House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI) – which looks at the public’s view of the housing market – says that people perceive UK house prices to have fallen for the 16th consecutive month in October, and at a much sharper rate than in September.

Nearly a quarter of the 1,500 households surveyed said that the price of their home had fallen this month, October, while only 7% said that prices had risen. The resulting HPSI reading of 42.1 is down from 44.7 in September. Any figure under 50 indicates that people believe house prices are falling.

Those working in the public sector (40.7) perceived that the value of their home fell more quickly over the last month than those working in the private sector (42.4) and those who are not working at all (42.0).

Lower perceived prices were reported in all regions, although those living in London (46.4) thought that the value of their home fell at a more modest rate than those living outside the capital. The sharpest falls were reported in the West Midlands (36.8) and Wales (37.6).

The future HPSI, which measures what households think will happen to the price of their property over the next 12 months, turned negative this month, falling to 47.7 from 53.6 in September.

Households in eight of the 11 regions expect prices to fall in the coming year, the largest proportion of regions with a negative outlook since May this year. Those in the North-East (39.8) are expecting the biggest declines, followed by those in the South-West (42.1) and Yorkshire and the Humber (42.5).

Only three regions expect house prices to rise in the coming year: London (52.7) and the East of England (52.1) and the South-East, where households are the most optimistic of all regions, reflected in a reading of 53.3, although this is down from 59.0 in September.

Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, said: “Weak labour market conditions and heightened concerns about the economic outlook took their toll on house price expectations in October, as sentiment fell back to its lowest level since the start of the summer.

“This is the first snapshot of house price sentiment since the Bank of England announced its latest expansion of quantitative easing, and the survey therefore suggests that we are unlikely to see a repeat of the rebound in house prices that followed the first round of quantitative easing in early 2009.”

Original source - EA Today

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This sentence is INCREDIBLE! There's some right old shit written about the housing market but this takes the biscuit

says that people perceive UK house prices to have fallen for the 16th consecutive month in October, and at a much sharper rate than in September.
:lol::lol::lol:

How on earth can you perceive that your house has dropped in value at a higher rate than the month before? Does anything physical change about your house? Do all houses have some kind of digital price tag on the front door which changes according to the owners perception of it's value?

Any figure under 50 indicates that people believe house prices are falling.

Beleive ! well now you know how to increase the price of your home. Just change your beleif system.

They either ARE or they ARE NOT.

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This sentence is INCREDIBLE! There's some right old shit written about the housing market but this takes the biscuit

:lol::lol::lol:

How on earth can you perceive that your house has dropped in value at a higher rate than the month before? Does anything physical change about your house? Do all houses have some kind of digital price tag on the front door which changes according to the owners perception of it's value?

Beleive ! well now you know how to increase the price of your home. Just change your beleif system.

They either ARE or they ARE NOT.

When reality changes the sheeple outlook on bricks and mortar nothing will stop the implosion IMO, the herd will all run the same way. There is going to be a lot of anger.

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Beleive ! well now you know how to increase the price of your home. Just change your beleif system.

They either ARE or they ARE NOT.

I don't know, it seems reasonable to me. You only find out the market price of your house when you come to sell it. Everything else is estimation.

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I has been interesting to observe the following over the past few years:

The collapse of property values in the Republic of Ireland, followed by Northern Ireland. Subsequently this spread to Scotland, the north of England and Wales rapidly working it's way towards the south.

At the current rate it looks like there may only be a couple of years to go before London it hit quite badly, as I suspect once prices start to collapse there will be a stampede of spivs, BTL and foreign investors to get out.

Edited by khards

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Ehm.........anybody other than themselves, a group of people called "Them". Because of course most of these muppets think they are a cross between Buffett and Donald Trump when it comes to making money :lol::lol::lol: ....am I close?

That pretty much hits the mark.

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This sentence is INCREDIBLE! There's some right old shit written about the housing market but this takes the biscuit

:lol::lol::lol:

How on earth can you perceive that your house has dropped in value at a higher rate than the month before? Does anything physical change about your house? Do all houses have some kind of digital price tag on the front door which changes according to the owners perception of it's value?

Beleive ! well now you know how to increase the price of your home. Just change your beleif system.

They either ARE or they ARE NOT.

Well I think that is the problem, nobody know the value of their house until it is sold. You could get an EA around, or re-mortgage, but neither of those are particularly reliable as having your house sitting on the market for 2 years, or alternatively having 5 people in a bidding war.

I am interested in the "fact" that public sector workers think their houses are falling further. Did they take out the geographical factor? I would expect people outside of London and the SE to think their houses are falling faster, as they appear to be in reality, and if those PS workers are weighted to be outside London, that may explain it, or, more likely, PS workers are the more worried.

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I don't know, it seems reasonable to me. You only find out the market price of your house when you come to sell it. Everything else is estimation.

Indeed, very close friends of mine have put there 5 bed semi in South Croydon property up for sale for 500k, the highest valuation was 625k by the way. They ignored the highest valuation as you can buy a detached for that and have change! After 2 months with no offers they reduced it to 460k - 500k although on RM it says 460k in the heading. Still no takers after two viewings. They started telling me back in July that "properties always sell in their road...bla...bla...bla....you can't buy...bla...bla...bla. Interestingly the next door (adjoining) neighbour has not extended their 3 bed semi. It was up for 385k, went under offer for 375k within 2 weeks and the deal just blew out as the valuation came in at 350k.

On the other side, another friend of mine a single lady is about to exchange on a very nice detached house in Eastbourne for 575k, the asking price was 575k and that was her first offer. She told me the agents said...bla....bla bla.....I despair!

Edited by Tim Miller

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This sentence is INCREDIBLE! There's some right old shit written about the housing market but this takes the biscuit

:lol::lol::lol:

How on earth can you perceive that your house has dropped in value at a higher rate than the month before? Does anything physical change about your house? Do all houses have some kind of digital price tag on the front door which changes according to the owners perception of it's value?

Beleive ! well now you know how to increase the price of your home. Just change your beleif system.

They either ARE or they ARE NOT.

It's an index of sentiment; it does exactly what it says on the tin. There are plenty of other indexes to tell us what prices are actually doing, surely it's quite handy to also have one that tells us whether people realise it or not?

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Makes the rightmove bounce in asking prices this month all the more puzzling. Vendors still appear to be overly-optimistic with their asking price IMO. I am surprised that there are not more wanting out before the winter lull starts.

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Visited friends in the South East a few months ago. 3 properties on the market in the immediate vicinity. Basic 3 bed detached jobs in a nice road, one extended (oddly) to provide a 4th bedroom. Ok, here's the interesting bit: the extended property had gone on for £350k and the at that point was SSTC for £325k which my friends thought was shockingly low as one of the others, on for £365k was also SSTC. The fnal one had gone on for a completely ludicrous £399k. So, as of now, the £399k came off the market, the £325k vendors pulled out and the £365k came back on the market and after a few quick price drops is now on for £329k, Net result NOTHING. No sales, nada, zip, big fat zero. What are houses 'worth' in that road? No one knows. Be interesting to discuss with my friends, but suspect it wouldn't be well received.

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Be interesting to discuss with my friends, but suspect it wouldn't be well received.

When you do, make sure you tell me. I would loooove to hear of their faces and their BS.

Edited by Killer Bunny

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Visited friends in the South East a few months ago. 3 properties on the market in the immediate vicinity. Basic 3 bed detached jobs in a nice road, one extended (oddly) to provide a 4th bedroom. Ok, here's the interesting bit: the extended property had gone on for £350k and the at that point was SSTC for £325k which my friends thought was shockingly low as one of the others, on for £365k was also SSTC. The fnal one had gone on for a completely ludicrous £399k. So, as of now, the £399k came off the market, the £325k vendors pulled out and the £365k came back on the market and after a few quick price drops is now on for £329k, Net result NOTHING. No sales, nada, zip, big fat zero. What are houses 'worth' in that road? No one knows. Be interesting to discuss with my friends, but suspect it wouldn't be well received.

So when they thought 325 was low, did they even know what the offer was on the one on at 365 that was SSTC?!

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Visited friends in the South East a few months ago. 3 properties on the market in the immediate vicinity. Basic 3 bed detached jobs in a nice road, one extended (oddly) to provide a 4th bedroom. Ok, here's the interesting bit: the extended property had gone on for £350k and the at that point was SSTC for £325k which my friends thought was shockingly low as one of the others, on for £365k was also SSTC. The fnal one had gone on for a completely ludicrous £399k. So, as of now, the £399k came off the market, the £325k vendors pulled out and the £365k came back on the market and after a few quick price drops is now on for £329k, Net result NOTHING. No sales, nada, zip, big fat zero. What are houses 'worth' in that road? No one knows. Be interesting to discuss with my friends, but suspect it wouldn't be well received.

Just sitting around with zero people interested in their property will break most would be sellers, if they really have to sell. The daily economic news is WAY different to 2006-07.

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This sentence is INCREDIBLE! There's some right old shit written about the housing market but this takes the biscuit

:lol::lol::lol:

How on earth can you perceive that your house has dropped in value at a higher rate than the month before? Does anything physical change about your house? Do all houses have some kind of digital price tag on the front door which changes according to the owners perception of it's value?

Beleive ! well now you know how to increase the price of your home. Just change your beleif system.

They either ARE or they ARE NOT.

I think given the indignation that VI ramping stirs up here, it always surprises me how people are quick to disregard the power of sentiment. Believing that what you are selling is losing value the longer it takes to sell will of course put pressure on sellers and pull prices down, so in that respect this is a really useful survey. And of course this works the opposite way with buyers (would like to see potential buyers included in this survey too).

Makes the rightmove bounce in asking prices this month all the more puzzling. Vendors still appear to be overly-optimistic with their asking price IMO. I am surprised that there are not more wanting out before the winter lull starts.

Not really - fewer new instructions + EAs fighting for survival = flatteringly high valuations (then talk them down later when sellers are tied in...theoretically at least)

Edit: Spelling

Edited by NEO72

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Just sitting around with zero people interested in their property will break most would be sellers, if they really have to sell. The daily economic news is WAY different to 2006-07.

There's a certain bloody mindedness to vendors that knows no bounds and they would sooner cut off their noses to spite their faces. I know of some vendors that have had their property on the market for over five years. They might be six feet under before they can escape to their chosen retirement home in the sun, but oh no, they are not going to give it away.

Edited by crashmonitor

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There's a certain bloody mindedness to vendors that knows no bounds and they would sooner cut off their noses to spite their faces. I know of some vendors that have had their property on the market for over five years. They might be six feet under before they can escape to their chosen retirement home in the sun, but oh no, they are not going to give it away.

They must have been very daft with their price expectations? mental even?

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This sentence is INCREDIBLE! There's some right old shit written about the housing market but this takes the biscuit

:lol::lol::lol:

How on earth can you perceive that your house has dropped in value at a higher rate than the month before? Does anything physical change about your house? Do all houses have some kind of digital price tag on the front door which changes according to the owners perception of it's value?

Beleive ! well now you know how to increase the price of your home. Just change your beleif system.

They either ARE or they ARE NOT.

Hmm, whilst I think there is something in what you say, I think it is foolish to underestimate the herd mentality becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy regarding prices. As soon as most people in the market think that prices will be lower next month, all of a sudden they will be.

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How on earth can you perceive that your house has dropped in value

I have an idea what my house might be "worth" (ie how much someone might pay for it) based on how much the identical houses in my street sell for. The 2 sales over summer are about 20% above what I paid 2 years ago.

If people are prepared to pay those prices then I'm gonna stick my house on for a little bit more and I'll see what happens. If it is "overpriced" then I'll get no offers. If I get an offer then why is it "overpriced"?

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for a drop in prices - doesn't really bother me what the perceived value of my house is as I aint sellin! It's also not something that I think about on a daily basis. But I can't help but look up sold prices on my street out of curiosity and then my perception will obviously change, either up or down and at different rates!

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There's a certain bloody mindedness to vendors that knows no bounds and they would sooner cut off their noses to spite their faces. I know of some vendors that have had their property on the market for over five years. They might be six feet under before they can escape to their chosen retirement home in the sun, but oh no, they are not going to give it away.

Someone needs to explain inflation to downsizers to show how their money is going to buy less the longer they hang on for a price. They need to get that surplus cash working for them not let it sit there depreciating in their property. It's time they lowered their price, sold and got on with their lives.

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So when they thought 325 was low, did they even know what the offer was on the one on at 365 that was SSTC?!

I believe the wife knows the sellers of the ex-£365k job, but 'knowing' in that part of the country can mean anything from intimate acquaintance to merely swerving around them in the road. From the conversation we had at the time, she clearly believed the sellers who had accepted £325k had done the right thing pulling out as they'd accepted far less than they might have got. At the time I felt like suggesting it was a brave thing to let buyers go, but decided against. I'll report back how the would-be sellers of the £329k property fare, as they are obviously motivated to sell and it looks like they'll be setting a new price point for the locality, one that won't be winning them any new friends.

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  • 277 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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