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China's Debt Spree Returns To Haunt

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8821094/Chinas-debt-spree-returns-to-haunt.html

It is proving harder than expected for the central bank to manage a calibrated "soft-landing" after letting rip with credit to counter the Great Recession. The loan spree raised credit from 100pc to almost 200pc of GDP (on IMF estimates), including off-books trusts, letters of credit and sub-radar loans from Hong Kong.

The 30pc annual pace of loan growth is unprecedented in any major country in modern history. It is double the pace of America's housing boom and Japan's Nikkei bubble in the late 1980s. It may match US loan growth in the late 1920s.

The Communist Party is now struggling to cope with the fall-out. On Monday, the state investment fund Central Huijin began buying stakes in China's four top banks to restore confidence and halt the slide in share prices.

The relief rally ignited bank shares on Tuesday. Agricultural Bank of China surged 13pc in Hong Kong. Shanghai's bourse jumped 4pc but is still down 60pc from its peak in late 2008.

China's finance ministry is quietly intervening to underwrite China's railway system. This behemoth is drowning with $300bn of debts after breakneck expansion, is in arrears on $25bn of debts to its two largest suppliers and has run out of money to pay workers on the Lanzhou-Chonqing rail project.

......

Roughly 60pc of the region's loans come from non-bank lending beyond control, some of it Ponzi finance. "It's a tight financial network that interweaves lenders and borrowers collectively, often to their mutual benefit and sometimes to their terrible loss," said Caixin Magazine.

"If only a few debt-ridden companies collapse, the financial trouble can ripple through the entire credit-connected community. The domino-effect started to endanger the entire system in July."

Sounds like the Chinese have there own Western style finance model.....

Still I'm sure it will all work out well, this time it's different....

The entire ponzi global economy still looks like it's crumbling to dust.

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How can everyone be in debt? Who does everyone owe?

... oh, wait, now I remember...

most of it is owed to me, im sitting on about 48 trillion but i dont like to talk about in case people on here get jealous, im prepared to take a good 1% hit on that though to help solve the crisis

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8821094/Chinas-debt-spree-returns-to-haunt.html

Sounds like the Chinese have there own Western style finance model.....

Still I'm sure it will all work out well, this time it's different....

The entire ponzi global economy still looks like it's crumbling to dust.

The idea that China will usurp the US as a Global superpower has always been laughable IMO

More wishful thinking by the left.

:)

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The idea that China will usurp the US as a Global superpower has always been laughable IMO

More wishful thinking by the left.

:)

The 'left' are NeoLib Globalists now are they? My you are confused today.

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The idea that China will usurp the US as a Global superpower has always been laughable IMO

More wishful thinking by the left.

:)

Is there anything the left are not to blame for?

China does have a large standing army, tensions with many neighbours, and nuclear weapons. And a massively unbalanced economy. 'Laughable' probably isn't the best word. 'Scary' is more like it..

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Is there anything the left are not to blame for?

China does have a large standing army, tensions with many neighbours, and nuclear weapons. And a massively unbalanced economy. 'Laughable' probably isn't the best word. 'Scary' is more like it..

They were not responsible for WW1 - but everything else - yes.

Basically the left have been on the wrong side of the argument for most of their history.

The latest examples being Man Made Global warming, the demise of the US, the EU and the Euro.

IMHO the most likely outcome for China is economic collapse followed by years of internal strife - possibly a civil war of some kind.

:blink:

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The 'left' are NeoLib Globalists now are they? My you are confused today.

The left hate the US and want to see the Dollar destroyed and replaced by the Euro

Complete fantasy world thinking and utterly laughable

but true neverthless

:blink:

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The idea that China will usurp the US as a Global superpower has always been laughable IMO

More wishful thinking by the left.

:)

:huh: a small subset of the western left might like the idea, but most are frankly terrified by the notion.

That aside, your beliefs about who is responsible for everything bad that's ever happened are matters of faith, not history.

IMHO the only ideal worth following is one of balance between left, right, libertarianism and statism.

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IMHO the most likely outcome for China is economic collapse followed by years of internal strife - possibly a civil war of some kind.

Let's just hope they haven't done all that infrastructure on the cheap, so they get to use it after their 'adjustment'..

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:huh: a small subset of the western left might like the idea, but most are frankly terrified by the notion.

That aside, your beliefs about who is responsible for everything bad that's ever happened are matters of faith, not history.

IMHO the only ideal worth following is one of balance between left, right, libertarianism and statism.

Sorry but I don't accept your argument that a small subset of the left are anti American

The vast majority of the left are rabidly anti American.

And much of the history of the 20th Century was an ideological battle between Capitalism and Socialism

If you add up the death toll inflicted by just Russia and China on their own populations in peacetime the figures are horrific.

The outcome of the struggles in the 20th Century was a clear economic and moral victory for capitalism

It is the left who are now attempting to rewrite history on the basis of a depression caused by left wing dominated policies pursued by all governments in the West over the last 20-30 years.

The only answer is a smaller state and drastically reduced taxation, regulation and welfare

IMHO

:)

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Sorry but I don't accept your argument that a small subset of the left are anti American

I didn't mention anti-americanism (which is a trait shared by the right as well as the left) - I was talking about the left wishing China to supplant it the US.

And much of the history of the 20th Century was an ideological battle between Capitalism and Socialism

If you add up the death toll inflicted by just Russia and China on their own populations in peacetime the figures are horrific.

That is the result of totalitarianism and I fully agree - the numbers are horrific.

The outcome of the struggles in the 20th Century was a clear economic and moral victory for capitalism

It is the left who are now attempting to rewrite history on the basis of a depression caused by left wing dominated policies pursued by all governments in the West over the last 20-30 years.

Interesting - we are in the middle of a crisis brought about by malinvestment by financial organisations, and yet you won't acknowledge that. They chased a bubble and now they expect us to bail them out. Some triumph for capitalism...

Edited by tomandlu

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Here's a link to the other side of the argument. It is worth a read.

http://www.bloomberg...l-j-arbess.html

<Edit to add: I see the thread has descended into a debate based on simpletons' simplistic left-right worldviews. Apologies if this analysis is a bit too complicated for some or too close to the real world for comfort. Please ignore.>

Edited by _w_

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Interesting - we are in the middle of a crisis brought about by malinvestment by financial organisations, and yet you won't acknowledge that. They chased a bubble and now they expect us to bail them out. Some triumph for capitalism...

It seems like the only argument left for the banker apologists in defending their failed corrupted/crony capitalistic system, is to kick the already dead horse that is Socialism.

Both isms can be defined by a single cliché: “Fill ya boots lads.”

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It seems like the only argument left for the banker apologists in defending their failed corrupted/crony capitalistic system, is to kick the already dead horse that is Socialism.

Both isms can be defined by a single cliché: “Fill ya boots lads.”

Show me one post which has defended crony capitalism.

You're flogging a horse of your own, and it smells.

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Show me one post which has defended crony capitalism.

You're flogging a horse of your own, and it smells.

A strawman, since all examples of failed capitalism are, apparently, 'cronyism'. It's just like the bankers - when it works, take the credit, when it fails, avoid the blame.

IMHO we need a strong element of private capitalism and a strong element of public socialism. Let the capitalists run rampant, but let the state ensure that they don't grab everything in sight.

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I didn't mention anti-americanism (which is a trait shared by the right as well as the left) - I was talking about the left wishing China to supplant it the US.

That is the result of totalitarianism and I fully agree - the numbers are horrific.

Interesting - we are in the middle of a crisis brought about by malinvestment by financial organisations, and yet you won't acknowledge that. They chased a bubble and now they expect us to bail them out. Some triumph for capitalism...

Funny, I thought we were in the middle of a crisis caused by Sovereign debt.

And what exactly happened to all the billions in tax generated by the property boom here and elsewhere?

:blink:

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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