Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Perfectionist

Oil Reserves Are Double Previous Estimates ! ?

Recommended Posts

What they don't tell you is that it will cost $100 a barrel to recover. I don't doubt that if oil goes to $150 a barrel, reserves will double again. Problem is there is very little $10-$20 a barrel oil to extract.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bart of Darkness

Oil reserves are double previous estimates, says Saudi

I believe it's been suggested that the Saudi's were being optimistic with their previous estimates. Is there any reason to attach much credibility to these figures?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oil reserves are double previous estimates, says Saudi

I believe it's been suggested that the Saudi's were being optimistic with their previous estimates. Is there any reason to attach much credibility to these figures?

Sure. Oil prices are much higher now. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The adding to proven reserves bit simply means drilling production wells into existing known (undeveloped) oil reserves.

It's like having 2 cans of baked beans in the cupboard but only opening one. Then you decide that's not enouogh so you open the other can thus doubling your baked bean reserves. But you haven't got any more beans, it's just that now the can is open they can be eaten.

All credible forecasts of global oil supply already take undeveloped known reserves such as those the Saudis are referring to into account.

As for Exxon's 3 billion barrels, that's abouot how much remains IN THE GROUND. How to get it out is a big problem since two thirds of that is the "stuck" oil that remains behind which can not be pumped because it is not a freely flowing liquid but rather it is absorbed in rock. Given the depths digging up the rock is out of the question so there's a few problems here. Yes, some of it can be recovered but the problem is not so much the financial cost but the slow pace of extraction and the substantial amounts of oil needed to run the operation, particularly where a surfactant is injected to flush the oil from the rocks which is the most effective method.

Overall, this is just a rearranging of words and drilling into already discovered oil fields (the fact that the Saudis are doing this strongly suggests that their existing major producing fields are in trouble). As for peak oil, it would be comparable to doubling the asking price of your house for sale and proclaiming that a HPC was not going to happen because you doubled the asking price. Nice words but it doesn't change the reality. Peak oil is a problem.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone knows that we are running out of oil :rolleyes: How do we know? Because "Big Oil" told us so. There is no way that the small number of huge companies got together and decided to drive prices up by saying that they are running out :rolleyes: No, big oil has our best interests at heart :lol:

Best of all because "everyone knows we are running out of oil" anyone who question it is instantly a crack pot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Best of all because "everyone knows we are running out of oil" anyone who question it is instantly a crack pot.

That's funny, a few years ago it was the other way around. :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What they don't tell you is that it will cost $100 a barrel to recover. I don't doubt that if oil goes to $150 a barrel, reserves will double again. Problem is there is very little $10-$20 a barrel oil to extract.

it costs less than a dollar a barrel to extract Iraqi oil.

thats why they wanted to control it. to control the huge profits.

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comm...lacey060503.asp

June 2003

Iraq can meet all of its immediate — and most of its future — investment needs by selling all of its oil and gas now, and placing the proceeds in an internationally administered interest-bearing trust fund. Iraq's known and suspected oil reserves could be over 300 billion barrels, and it has another 110 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. According to a study by PricewaterhouseCoopers, oil reserves sold for an average of $5 a barrel throughout the 1990s. Thanks to its low extraction costs, Iraq's oil would probably fetch a premium on that price. But even at $5 a barrel, Iraq can realize an immediate gain of $1.5 trillion — and that's before any of the gas reserves are sold off.

so at 5 dollars a barrel Iraqi oil is worth 1.5 trillion

at 60 dollars a barrel that is 18 trillion dollars,

and you wonder why they invaded ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone knows that we are running out of oil :rolleyes: How do we know? Because "Big Oil" told us so. There is no way that the small number of huge companies got together and decided to drive prices up by saying that they are running out :rolleyes: No, big oil has our best interests at heart :lol:

Best of all because "everyone knows we are running out of oil" anyone who question it is instantly a crack pot.

I must point out that big oil DENIES the existance of peak oil with the odd exception. It's those who believe in things like house price crashes and economic trouble ahead as well as geologists who are ringing the peak oil alarm bells, not big oil.

Indeed BP, ExxonMobil and others continue to trot out the irrelevant "there's enough for 40 years" etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I must point out that big oil DENIES the existance of peak oil with the odd exception. It's those who believe in things like house price crashes and economic trouble ahead as well as geologists who are ringing the peak oil alarm bells, not big oil.

Indeed BP, ExxonMobil and others continue to trot out the irrelevant "there's enough for 40 years" etc.

even as oil runs out it still costs the same money to extract it .obviously there comes a point when the field is exhauasted and it costs more to extract it, then they just move on to the next field. the point is extraction costs have not risen while prices have quadrupled.

.

Iraqi oil is still extracted at under a dollar a barrel wether the cost of a barrel is 5 dollars or 100 dollars,.

are you getting the picture folks ?

are the little wheels in your brains moving ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

even as oil runs out it still costs the same money to extract it,.

Iraqi oil is still extracted at under a dollar a barrel wether the cost of a barrel is 5 dollars or 100 dollars,.

are you getting the picture folks ?

are the little wheels in your brains moving ?

I do understand exactly what you're saying that oil companies are making big $ BUT that is the way ANY market works. Markets by definition are made at the margin and those with an unusually low cost of production make a windfall profit.

Same with agriculture, manufacturing, IT, medical services, retail, house prices or whatever. The cost, or more correctly the price, of the most marginal producer needed to meet demand sets the price. Those with lower costs make massive profits. It's not just oil.

The much anticipated house price crash is simply the movement of market price set at the margin. Most houses won't change hands at all, let alone do so at a reduced price. But if they DID sell then they would have to accept the lower market price just as they would have recently received a higher price. Markets are made at the margin.

Want to get oil prices down? Just cut demand to a level where expensive sources of oil aren't needed and the producers will go out of business. As supplies of cheap oil decline just keep cutting demand. LIKEWISE, A HPC CAN BE CAUSED RIGHT NOW IF PEOPLE SIMPLY DON'T BUY THE EXPENSIVELY PRICED HOUSES AND OFFER TRUE VALUE ONLY. Instant HPC literally overnight as long as everyone goes along with it.

But in reality all money gets directed to something. If there's more and more money in circulation (which there is) then it gets spent on something. If not houses and not stocks then it goes somewhere else - like oil. And if we did somehow get oil under control then something else, like food, houses or stocks, would go up instead unless we actually stopped the excessive money supply growth. But that would send interest rates through the roof so don't hold your breath.

Having known about the "peak oil" problem since 1988, I just bought oil stocks when they were on sale in the late 1990's. Sorry if that sounds a bit arrogant, I don't mean to, but the point is that this situation has been known about for decades. The demand for oil exceeds that which can be cheaply produced which, combined with rapid money supply growth, sends the price to the moon.

My expectation is that the next major price boom will occur in FOOD since that too has surging demand and supply problems. And with money coming out of real estate (and stocks?) it has to go somewhere. That is unless, of course, we finally wake up to the reality of limited resources and do something about the growing population. It's unlikely though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do understand exactly what you're saying that oil companies are making big $ BUT that is the way ANY market works. Markets by definition are made at the margin and those with an unusually low cost of production make a windfall profit.

I am sure the people of Iraq are really glad to know that US and UK oil companies and the UK and US stock market and the UK and US govt via taxes are reaping the windfall of high oil prices.

I am sure that is a great comfort to them as they mourn their dead relatives and nurse their own wounds and queue to buy rationed petrol.

I am sure they are over the moon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone knows that we are running out of oil :rolleyes: How do we know? Because "Big Oil" told us so. There is no way that the small number of huge companies got together and decided to drive prices up by saying that they are running out :rolleyes: No, big oil has our best interests at heart :lol:

Best of all because "everyone knows we are running out of oil" anyone who question it is instantly a crack pot.

Do some research.

You are in the same position as the occasional bull-to-the-slaughter we get on here from time to time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do some research.

You are in the same position as the occasional bull-to-the-slaughter we get on here from time to time.

he has a point, as the price of oil has trebled the cost of extraction has remained the same.

of course oil will run out in 60-80 years time but at the moment they are pumping enough to meet demand and the extraction cost is the same.

there has been a certain oil panic since the Iraq war,

therefore they are making MUCH more profit than they did before the Iraq war.

just do the research on extraction costs and the profits returned by texaco,exxon, BP and Shell.

also do some research on the 14 billion dollars of Iraqi oil reveneus which went missing after the US invasion and under US control.

ie even the small share of the profits of Irqai oil due to the Iraqi people was stolen by corrupt Americans and corrupt Iraqis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

he has a point, as the price of oil has trebled the cost of extraction has remained the same.

of course oil will run out in 60-80 years time but at the moment they are pumping enough to meet demand and the extraction cost is the same.

there has been a certain oil panic since the Iraq war,

therefore they are making MUCH more profit than they did before the Iraq war.

just do the research on extraction costs and the profits returned by texaco,exxon, BP and Shell.

also do some research on the 14 billion dollars of Iraqi oil reveneus which went missing after the US invasion and under US control.

ie even the small share of the profits of Irqai oil due to the Iraqi people was stolen by corrupt Americans and corrupt Iraqis.

I don't deny the profiteering. The reason, which, for the moment, overshadows peak production, is the demand surge from USA and from the newer entranst China and India. This has sent the market value up, up and away as Charlie once said.

It adds up to the same thing though, it's not a conspiracy, lots of people want a share of a finite resource and so it's getting expensive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't deny the profiteering. The reason, which, for the moment, overshadows peak production, is the demand surge from USA and from the newer entranst China and India. This has sent the market value up, up and away as Charlie once said.

It adds up to the same thing though, it's not a conspiracy, lots of people want a share of a finite resource and so it's getting expensive.

the decision to invaed Iraq and control the oil resources WAS a conspiracy.

even a child can see that,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As for Exxon's 3 billion barrels, that's abouot how much remains IN THE GROUND. How to get it out is a big problem since two thirds of that is the "stuck" oil that remains behind which can not be pumped because it is not a freely flowing liquid but rather it is absorbed in rock.

Unfortunately I can't read the article, is Tillerson referring to oil remaining underground or from unconventional sources (e.g. estimated 2 trillion barrels in Wyoming, which are expensive to convert into useable oil, but well within the current technology to do so with an acceptable energy balance, at an customer price of perhaps $70 per barrel)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can only contribute a little to this discussion.

Oil production costs will vary a lot depending on where you are, what sort of reservoir you are talking about, how much fancy techniques you have to use to get at awkward layers of oil. Iraq and Saudi are special cases, or they have been at any rate. One point that Matt Simmons makes in his Twilight in the Desert is that you can't be too dogmatic about the state of oil fields in the Middle east due to the clamp down on data since the early 1980s.

As for Peak Oil, well, what impresses me about Ken Deffeyes's book is that he isn't not really that "in your face" about trying to make you believe him. He lays out the technical arguments and data and you can take it or leave it. The peaking of conventional oil around 2000-2010 has been anticipated at least since the early 1970s. Senior oil executives have openly warned of it, but "we're always running out of oil" so nobody listened. Still, I can appreciate a technical argument. Nothing has changed since then to alter their warning - there have been no new ocean of giant oilfields discovered since then.

I suspect the reason for the above article was to stop panic setting in. There is no need for panic. Oil cost less than $2/barrel for decades until about 1970 and then prices increased by a factor of more than six, and they stayed high forever after, barring a very few brief dips. Did that end the world? Nope, bit of economic pain but civilization did not collapse. I suspect the rich economies are actually better placed to take oil shocks now than then. although for a nasty reason - the rich in the world are far richer now than in the early 1970s, but the poor are just as poor, or even poorer, and there are twice as many of them. The real horrors of an energy crisis will be in the Third World and developing nations, much less so in the rich nations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The second article is what I found most errrr disturbing .... abiotic theory suggesting oil is constantly renewing itself deep underground ...... surely if this was true, the legions of academics and scientists would have perhaps mentioned it a long time ago ??

VI spin getting increasingly desperate ..... maybe because the Peak Oil problem is even bigger then most worst case scenarios ???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The second article is what I found most errrr disturbing .... abiotic theory suggesting oil is constantly renewing itself deep underground ...... surely if this was true, the legions of academics and scientists would have perhaps mentioned it a long time ago ??

The abiotic theory is still little more than speculation and the one large-scale experiment designed to test it's hypotheses was an abysmal failure:

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/..._free_pt1.shtml

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/..._free_pt2.shtml

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/..._free_pt3.shtml

Also, isn't it funny how all the big oil companies employ legions of petrogeologists trained to use the biotic theory to find oil, when they could simply use the abiotic theory and find oodles of it? Unless the abiotic theory is useless? :rolleyes:

http://www.chevron.com/products/learning_center/crude/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.