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The Masked Tulip

Where Are We Now - The State Of Play

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It has been a roller-coaster week to end 6 or so weeks of roller-coaster movements - I would like to discuss where we are now.

The QE printing yesterday has thrown me completely - I was expecting it to come when Greece defaulted so it coming yesterday surprised me, if not you, and it has had me thinking about where we are now.

Houses in my area appear to now be dropping - there is a lot more of the higher end stuff dropping their asking prices, but they are dropping from such high levels that this time next year they will still be over-priced. There is also a seemingly huge reluctance to drop anywhere near, yet alone below, the stamp duty threshold of 250K.

A year ago it was the 300K mark that people were trying not to drop down under with many houses coming on at 310K and upwards. Now it is the 250K mark with loads of houses in my target areas on for asking prices of 269K to 299K - I assume the lower priced ones are assuming they will get 250K as I keep hearing various EAs mention "Looking for stamp".

So it seems that some are dropping asking prices albeit slowly and very reluctantly. It is not the gathering pace that I was hoping for by now. Having said that, nothing is stopping HPCers going in with low offers - perhaps it would be a good thing to go in with low offers regularly to drum it home to EAs and sellers.

Then there is the economic landscape.

The bears seem to be out in force re the global economy, re the Eurozone, Greece, domino effect, stagnating economy, unemployment rising and huge question marks over the banks. QE2 is clearly an attempt to bail out the UK banks no matter what it does to the likes of you and I - am I alone in finding Mervyn King's attitude towards savers in his TV interviews yesterday to be nothing less than disgusting?

Anyhow, where are we?

Has the news of recent days made any of you reconsider your house buying positions or your investment positions?

The markets are up and down more often than a latin american player in the Premiership. It seems you have half the economic writers out there preparing for a massive crash in stocks and PMs, the other half preparing for a massive rally on the back of QE and inflation.

The conclusion I am coming to is that house prices have much further to fall as long as the banks do not have the cash to lend. Problem is, any deposit/funds for house buying are being eroded. Some say to invest in PMs, equities, etc, but that is, dependent upon your POV, either a huge risk or a no brainer. Others say that the sums you are losing against inflation are negated by the safety of cash and the gradual drops in asking prices.

Thoughts anyone?

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I wish Popf would update his 'snows of K winter' thread.

I'm feeling like I need the insight at the moment.

As for house prices: in my area (Herts) prices are definately dropping slowly making me reconsider a purchase. I would estimate that prices have dropped from about 270k to 240k in the last two months for 3 beds.

Edited by DoctorJ

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Someone posted a while back, welcome to the fear phase. Don't think we were in the fear phase then, but maybe getting there now. Still I if was more internet savvy I would post the picture of the tumbleweed.

Dunno about a greek default. This will just freeze the system for a bit I guess. That means banks will be busy dealing with irate pensioners clutching their passbooks. Anything involving money, mortgages large financial transactions will just slow to a crawl. Last time I checked it wasn't possible to buy houses by turning up with gold bars or herds of cows, so I don't reckon a default will do buyers or sellers any good. What will happen a few months afterwards will be more interesting.,

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we are clearly in the fear stage now, it seems accepted that house prices are simply going to tank, there is no way out, this is spreading to the mass conciousnous, even my old mum thinks it, and recent homeowners I know are angry/fearful

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The conclusion I am coming to is that house prices have much further to fall as long as the banks do not have the cash to lend. Problem is, any deposit/funds for house buying are being eroded. Some say to invest in PMs, equities, etc, but that is, dependent upon your POV, either a huge risk or a no brainer. Others say that the sums you are losing against inflation are negated by the safety of cash and the gradual drops in asking prices.

Thoughts anyone?

Please tell me after over 23,000 posts, you realise that, as long as prices are falling at all, this is not the case?

As for the QE, more cost inflation = greater difficulty saving deposits, servicing mortgages and for retired owner-occupiers, paying bills = ever increasing downwards pressure on prices.

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As for house prices: in my area (Herts) prices are definately dropping slowly making me reconsider a purchase. I would estimate that prices have dropped from about 270k to 240k in the last two months for 3 beds.

3 beds are still, as I mentioned above, in that 269K to 299K price range where I am so to hear that Herts, with commuting distance of London, have come down below the 250K mark is very interesting. Thanks.

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Someone posted a while back, welcome to the fear phase. Don't think we were in the fear phase then, but maybe getting there now. Still I if was more internet savvy I would post the picture of the tumbleweed.

Dunno about a greek default. This will just freeze the system for a bit I guess. That means banks will be busy dealing with irate pensioners clutching their passbooks. Anything involving money, mortgages large financial transactions will just slow to a crawl. Last time I checked it wasn't possible to buy houses by turning up with gold bars or herds of cows, so I don't reckon a default will do buyers or sellers any good. What will happen a few months afterwards will be more interesting.,

I think in my part of the UK there is now that movement from denial to fear - it is ruddy slow though.

What do you mean by 'What will happen a few months afterwards will be more interesting'? Would like to hear your thoughts.

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If you have three lifetimes, then you can wait out the inevitable correction. But for the rest of us...

Rant Jnr is one the way and that has focused my thoughts a lot more recently. Our landlord has said he doesn't want kids in the house. We did check in advance that babies are OK. Not sure if the contract states when a baby becomes a kid though...

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we are clearly in the fear stage now, it seems accepted that house prices are simply going to tank, there is no way out, this is spreading to the mass conciousnous, even my old mum thinks it, and recent homeowners I know are angry/fearful

I don't actually know any recent home-owners other than the ones I meet when viewing, so they tend not to tell me of their woes or fears.

One couple, about 3 or 4 weeks ago did, pointing out that they knew they would not pay off their mortgage until in their 70s. The guy was also very ill. I found their asking price to be a good 40K more than I would pay for their house but, between 6the guy's illness and what they had spent on doing up the house, I could not bring myself to even contemplate putting in a low offer on it.

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As long as I can keep saving and the entire system does not collapse - I am better off saving - even earning paltry interest - as house prices are falling.

Savings are getting me about 3-4% per year net. House prices for places I am lookinga at have few and far between sales. However they appear to be dropping 5-10% per year.

So in reality I am - without really noticing it - making 10%+ per year no bother - in relation to house prices.

And if the system does collapse - I dont think I would even want a house. So not too worried about that - although I would prefer it did not happen anytime soon.

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Please tell me after over 23,000 posts, you realise that, as long as prices are falling at all, this is not the case?

:lol:

I am keen to hear the views and thoughts of others. I think it is good to have a thread like this every 2 or 3 months so that we share thoughts, get a bearing on what is happening, where things are going.

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If you have three lifetimes, then you can wait out the inevitable correction. But for the rest of us...

Rant Jnr is one the way and that has focused my thoughts a lot more recently. Our landlord has said he doesn't want kids in the house. We did check in advance that babies are OK. Not sure if the contract states when a baby becomes a kid though...

is there any chance he will alter his opinion with you being excellent tennants? would it be that easy for him to relet?

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Our landlord has said he doesn't want kids in the house. We did check in advance that babies are OK. Not sure if the contract states when a baby becomes a kid though...

If your contract says that you aren't allowed children, then it is an unreasonable clause, and would be thrown out in a court of law.

If you have a child, and your landlord gives you notice (even for another reason) then I think you would have a pretty reasonable chance of winning in court.

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I don't actually know any recent home-owners other than the ones I meet when viewing, so they tend not to tell me of their woes or fears.

One couple, about 3 or 4 weeks ago did, pointing out that they knew they would not pay off their mortgage until in their 70s. The guy was also very ill. I found their asking price to be a good 40K more than I would pay for their house but, between 6the guy's illness and what they had spent on doing up the house, I could not bring myself to even contemplate putting in a low offer on it.

Just because he is ill does not make it your fault and does not mean the guy is not a greedy *******.

Dickheads get ill too. In fact - the more the better - if karma really works.

PS - I don't know the guy, he may be decent, just giving another point of view

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3 beds are still, as I mentioned above, in that 269K to 299K price range where I am so to hear that Herts, with commuting distance of London, have come down below the 250K mark is very interesting. Thanks.

There is a range in price depending on various factors but a rough average based on my observations is a 10% drop. They are almost as cheap as 2 beds in my area; bit weird.

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I think in my part of the UK there is now that movement from denial to fear - it is ruddy slow though.

What do you mean by 'What will happen a few months afterwards will be more interesting'? Would like to hear your thoughts.

I have no clue. Will house prices shoot up ? Will they tank ? More importantly will they tank before my investments do ? Who knows ? All speculation.

One thing I know for sure is that it is different this time. It's different every time. If it wasn't, there'd be no place for thousands of people telling you what's going to happen.

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Just because he is ill does not make it your fault and does not mean the guy is not a greedy *******.

Dickheads get ill too. In fact - the more the better - if karma really works.

PS - I don't know the guy, he may be decent, just giving another point of view

You make good points - friends of mine have said the same thing.

It is possible that he is bull-sh*tting the illness but, from what he told me, he just knew too much about the particular illness and it all came out in the way that people often look for reassurance when they have been ill - been ill myself so maybe I picked up on it more.

Of course, if he was making it all up it could backfire on them both completely with people not wanting to put in low offers. Who knows.

In such circumstances, I prefer to walk away. I believe in karma... and actually liked the house :( ... but my 230K tops, I could tell, was a long way from their 269K asking price, especially when he mentioned they might drop it 3K for not having a drive :blink:

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In such circumstances, I prefer to walk away. I believe in karma... and actually liked the house :( ... but my 230K tops, I could tell, was a long way from their 269K asking price, especially when he mentioned they might drop it 3K for not having a drive :blink:

Ask them if they'd consider losing the roof and knocking another 5K off.

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:lol:

I am keen to hear the views and thoughts of others. I think it is good to have a thread like this every 2 or 3 months so that we share thoughts, get a bearing on what is happening, where things are going.

I know, I know ;) .

And kinda curious to see if the mood is changing myself.

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As long as I can keep saving and the entire system does not collapse - I am better off saving - even earning paltry interest - as house prices are falling.

Savings are getting me about 3-4% per year net. House prices for places I am lookinga at have few and far between sales. However they appear to be dropping 5-10% per year.

So in reality I am - without really noticing it - making 10%+ per year no bother - in relation to house prices.

And if the system does collapse - I dont think I would even want a house. So not too worried about that - although I would prefer it did not happen anytime soon.

Exactly. Am doing the same.

FWIW - I came back to the UK in early 2008 and my savings back then were enough for a 25% deposit on a two-bed semi. I held back... Now, I could put in cheeky cash offers on the same property. By this time next year, I expect that I could put reasonable cash offers on those properties. I'm not going to though...

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Moneyweek appears to think QE2 will actually drive up lending costs and share prices will fall as companies sell less things to inflation fighting Brits

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/uk/qe2-quantitative-easing-will-hurt-more-than-it-helps-14100

Well, there was a post on here the other day that said that most of the FTSE earnings were actually outside the UK ...

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I think the £75bn QE is in preparation for what is to come...'fail to plan, plan to fail'.....it is helping recapitalise our banks ready for the write downs expected in europe....I can see us all becoming a bit poorer in the future but with better balances in the gap between rich and poor, and a fairer price paid for the productive work we do..... more openness, honesty, transparency and trust....when trust breaks down there is no market. ;)

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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