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We have this sky headline today;

http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/16084419

"Fears Britain In 'Worst Ever' Economic Crisis"

All scary stuff !!!

However, are they using this type of headline to inject fear into the system so no one questions their £75 billion handout to the bankers ?

Is it bonus season soon? That will be interesting.

They are devaluing the money in everyone's pocket and they have to justify it.

This is akin to a fight against economic terrorism....tell the people we're in trouble and you can do what you like.

Or, should I really be scared.

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Is it bonus season soon? That will be interesting.

Funny you should mention it, but yes, the usually announce them just before/after Xmas. If there are bumper bonuses all round again, people are going to start asking questions...

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Funny you should mention it, but yes, the usually announce them just before/after Xmas. If there are bumper bonuses all round again, people are going to start asking questions...

We have had a round of that, though. "You can ask questions all you like, we're still going to trough it" is the response. The next stage could be fun, do you think?

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Fears Britain Is In Worst Economic Crisis...?

Well, the boom years before saw my chances of ever buying a sensible home vanish rapidly. I wasn't exactly getting ahead of the game then. If you haven't got much to lose anyway...?

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Look at it this way, you will be able to buy a cheaper house.

But you might not have a job or if you the do the ability to pay for it, because if you did it would push up house prices.

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We have had a round of that, though. "You can ask questions all you like, we're still going to trough it" is the response. The next stage could be fun, do you think?

I don't really blame the bankers. They are only accountable to their shareholders and themselves, not the general public.

The real problem is politicians who are supposed to be accountable to the electorate and yet keep handing our money to the banks. The Tories have shown they are no different. That £75bn QE is just stealing from everybody through inflation to give money to the banks.

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They had some analyst on the BBC breakfast saying that just hang on to your jobs and keep your head down. Talk about scaring the sheeple into working harder and behaving!

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We have this sky headline today;

http://news.sky.com/...rticle/16084419

"Fears Britain In 'Worst Ever' Economic Crisis"

All scary stuff !!!

However, are they using this type of headline to inject fear into the system so no one questions their £75 billion handout to the bankers ?

Is it bonus season soon? That will be interesting.

They are devaluing the money in everyone's pocket and they have to justify it.

This is akin to a fight against economic terrorism....tell the people we're in trouble and you can do what you like.

Or, should I really be scared.

I was in a hour long talk yesterday by the senior economist of one of the very big global banks.

His take on stuff was so bearish it would make most HPCers look like bulls - needless to say no one in the audience (commodities related) batted an eyelid.

Best quotes para phrased

"we knew the economy was fooked due to too much borrowing in 2005, we were just surprised it took another 2-3 years to go pop"

"it got a bit messier than we thought when it went pop but then again the BOE rate cut in '05 just helped stoked the bubble even more"

"the writing was on the wall when brown started marking his own perforamnce against rewriting his golden rules"

"the economy is in the worst place it been since the 1930s probably earlier

"i'll finish by going biblical: 7 good years and 7 lean years; we'll be lucky if we get out of this in 7 years"

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I was in a hour long talk yesterday by the senior economist of one of the very big global banks.

His take on stuff was so bearish it would make most HPCers look like bulls - needless to say no one in the audience (commodities related) batted an eyelid.

Best quotes para phrased

"we knew the economy was fooked due to too much borrowing in 2005, we were just surprised it took another 2-3 years to go pop"

"it got a bit messier than we thought when it went pop but then again the BOE rate cut in '05 just helped stoked the bubble even more"

"the writing was on the wall when brown started marking his own perforamnce against rewriting his golden rules"

"the economy is in the worst place it been since the 1930s probably earlier

"i'll finish by going biblical: 7 good years and 7 lean years; we'll be lucky if we get out of this in 7 years"

We won't be getting out of "this" in 20 or 30 years.

Kunt & Co (through their previous) malinvestment drives - spurred on by rate meddling have wrekced pensions, savings, earnings, investments, the ncome generating capacity of the the country, screwed the cost base, indebted the prudent, bailed biut the imprudent and bent the economy into the the shape it is now.

the jobs ae not coming back and neither is the properity.

They SHOULD be in the dock for treason.

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I was in a hour long talk yesterday by the senior economist of one of the very big global banks.

His take on stuff was so bearish it would make most HPCers look like bulls - needless to say no one in the audience (commodities related) batted an eyelid.

Best quotes para phrased

"we knew the economy was fooked due to too much borrowing in 2005, we were just surprised it took another 2-3 years to go pop"

"it got a bit messier than we thought when it went pop but then again the BOE rate cut in '05 just helped stoked the bubble even more"

"the writing was on the wall when brown started marking his own perforamnce against rewriting his golden rules"

"the economy is in the worst place it been since the 1930s probably earlier

"i'll finish by going biblical: 7 good years and 7 lean years; we'll be lucky if we get out of this in 7 years"

None of the above makes HPCers look like bulls. Where are the meaty quotes?

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I'm disappointed. I couldn't find any animal-related news on the main page.

Anyway, this is all just normal propaganda for the QE1.5. I thought it'd be more and wouldn't be surprised if this 75 was only the start.

I'd say that keeping your head down is probably the worst thing you can do at work. Smooching and kissing **** the requirement to keep a job, more so than productivity.

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We won't be getting out of "this" in 20 or 30 years.

Even the Great Depression only lasted a decade. Yes, it was followed by WW2, but there is no appetite for conflict now unlike the animosity that remained after WW1.

The ancien regime is falling apart pretty fast now. I'd be amazed if it's not all over by 2020.

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They had some analyst on the BBC breakfast saying that just hang on to your jobs and keep your head down. Talk about scaring the sheeple into working harder and behaving!

Just good advice if you ask me

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Even the Great Depression only lasted a decade. Yes, it was followed by WW2, but there is no appetite for conflict now unlike the animosity that remained after WW1.

The ancien regime is falling apart pretty fast now. I'd be amazed if it's not all over by 2020.

No appetite for conflict? Speak for yourself. I am well up for a ruck

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We have this sky headline today;

http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/16084419

"Fears Britain In 'Worst Ever' Economic Crisis"

All scary stuff !!!

However, are they using this type of headline to inject fear into the system so no one questions their £75 billion handout to the bankers ?

Is it bonus season soon? That will be interesting.

They are devaluing the money in everyone's pocket and they have to justify it.

This is akin to a fight against economic terrorism....tell the people we're in trouble and you can do what you like.

Or, should I really be scared.

After the beeb trader interview and news night the last couple of weeks I would say the sheeple are being primed for Q/E

I have a sneaky felling they are going to throw a christian to the lion`s this time though just as a extra distraction and my money is on rbs and then tell Fred the cupboard is bare

Edited by long time lurking

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We have this sky headline today;

http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/16084419

"Fears Britain In 'Worst Ever' Economic Crisis"

All scary stuff !!!

However, are they using this type of headline to inject fear into the system so no one questions their £75 billion handout to the bankers ?

Is it bonus season soon? That will be interesting.

They are devaluing the money in everyone's pocket and they have to justify it.

This is akin to a fight against economic terrorism....tell the people we're in trouble and you can do what you like.

Or, should I really be scared.

You're not the only one thinking this way - the media has been saturated with doom-laden 'end of the world' stories about the financial system lately.

Given how poor they have been at accurately reporting the broken mess that is the financial system over the last few years, this sudden desire to tell everyone just how fscked they are makes me think that it's part of an agenda to implement yet more dubious crap like QE, bailing out big banks etc. - But with the public scared out of their socks with fear about an imminent financial armageddon, no-one will question it. They'll just be happy the the government is 'doing something to protect them'.

Or maybe I'm just too cynical these days.

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Fears Britain Is In Worst Economic Crisis...?

Well, the boom years before saw my chances of ever buying a sensible home vanish rapidly. I wasn't exactly getting ahead of the game then. If you haven't got much to lose anyway...?

this is the thing, if you are solvent and debt free then you are probably ok, you are mobile and can move to avoid the worst, move after jobs etc

if you have a large mortgage, then I suspect you are in trouble

this is a depression for sure, but if you are light on your feet you can get ahead, imho

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As an anecdote, chap I work with who is normally the care-free type spent most of a lunch hour telling me how scared he was by Radio 4's focus on the economic crisis that morning...

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The ancien regime is falling apart pretty fast now. I'd be amazed if it's not all over by 2020.

After the beeb trader interview and news night the last couple of weeks I would say the sheeple are being primed for Q/E

I have a sneaky felling they are going to throw a christian to the lion`s this time though just as a extra distraction and my money is on rbs and then tell Fred the cupboard is bare

yes on both points

there is a whole ageing generation of troughing non-jobbers middle management and cash and house savers who are going to be wiped out over this period, people who thought non-production=production, debt=wealth, doing/waffling=thinking and a whole load of other tosh

once this is cleared, ie the destruction of most of the late middle aged middle class, once this is cleared we will be clear

Edited by Si1

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Or, should I really be scared.

I was properly scared back in 2007 to 2008. I was pretty sure I could see all this as inevitably coming. We're definitely not through this phase - and talk of fears of a 'double dip recession' is to completely miss the point... as GDP is not the relevant metric.

Back in 2007, I realised that no matter how successful I was relative to others (within reason - I was willing to consider being required to perform in the top 5% for a lifestyle in the top 75%) but saw no strategy by which I could be successful - even if confident and ambitious. I considered emigrating - but realised that while my problems could be exchanged, in one way or another,. I'd hit a similar brick-wall... though, if I left, I'd be doing it in a location in which I was less familiar with the place, people and customs.

I did a *LOT* of thinking... and the one thing that really helped me was to re-frame what money means. I had two completely different kinds of money - I had money I spent on groceries (where I'd even compare the price of onions, to be sure to get the best deal - if only by 1p) - and I had savings, intended to buy a house, which were growing faster than most people's - but... were falling behind on the sort of house I want to buy by about £50,000 per year - or, about four times the average wage (taking taxation into account.) This made no sense to me... I couldn't see what I should have done to get ahead... it was obvious that a huge mortgage wasn't the answer - as that would simply transfer worry that I'd never establish the life I wanted with fear that an approximation to it would be lost at the first mishap - as I'd be committed to be financially stretched for the rest of my natural life - and, likely, to die in debt. Money itself had stopped making sense... I could afford to do just about anything - except be confident I could stay somewhere and establish a life there... which made everything else pointless.

My re-framing of money led me to this observation... once bare essentials are taken care of, money is about relative obligations. It's a partial order imposed over people - dictating an effective pecking order. I didn't much like the pecking order for the past decade - or the fact that nothing I did seemed to affect my place in it - so why should I be scared by monetary crisis? What's the worst that can happen? Might those who've over extended face bankruptcy? (Possibly - it would be unpleasant for them, but doesn't scare me.) Might work become more scarce? (Yes - but, if I can survive day to day - perhaps I'll benefit more, long term, from the freedom that arises in a less frantic environment.) I'm a little worried at the prospect for war - but, rationally, I suspect that these fears are merely an echo from history - and the world today is more peaceful than it has been for most of the past. My greatest rational fear is that people who currently feel comfortable, who've not been motivated to ask themselves why, may act irrationally as/when their lives come unstuck. In the future (though maybe not for a few years yet) I see great opportunity... for those who remain optimistic enough to pursue it. The world has already changed - radically - and people are only coming to terms with it very, very slowly.

I am particularly interested by our recent QE - as I don't think it a bullish signal. I think it's an indication that there are likely to be imminent large-scale de-leveraging, probably with a European focus, and the only way banks in Britain are going to be able to do this is by selling their best assets to the BoE - as they'd not lend to each other to raise ready-cash as they fear for each others' solvency. New opportunities will arise - but these will be difficult to spot if they involve (even very indirectly) the popular perception of asset prices.

"Don’t worry about the future; or worry, but know that worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing bubblegum."

-- Baz.

Edited by A.steve

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Even the Great Depression only lasted a decade. Yes, it was followed by WW2, but there is no appetite for conflict now unlike the animosity that remained after WW1.

The ancien regime is falling apart pretty fast now. I'd be amazed if it's not all over by 2020.

It took 20 years last time for the deleveraging to complete.

On the bright side, innovations continue to be made during the period, investment in science and R&D continued to increase and people continued to leave better during the period.

USdebttoGDP2009.jpg

post-3007-0-20122500-1317984413_thumb.jpg

Edited by easybetman

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I was properly scared back in 2007 to 2008. I was pretty sure I could see all this as inevitably coming. We're definitely not through this phase - and talk of fears of a 'double dip recession' is to completely miss the point... as GDP is not the relevant metric.

Back in 2007, I realised that no matter how successful I was relative to others (within reason - I was willing to consider being required to perform in the top 5% for a lifestyle in the top 75%) but saw no strategy by which I could be successful - even if confident and ambitious. I considered emigrating - but realised that while my problems could be exchanged, in one way or another,. I'd hit a similar brick-wall... though, if I left, I'd be doing it in a location in which I was less familiar with the place, people and customs.

I did a *LOT* of thinking... and the one thing that really helped me was to re-frame what money means. I had two completely different kinds of money - I had money I spent on groceries (where I'd even compare the price of onions, to be sure to get the best deal - if only by 1p) - and I had savings, intended to buy a house, which were growing faster than most people's - but... were falling behind on the sort of house I want to buy by about £50,000 per year - or, about four times the average wage (taking taxation into account.) This made no sense to me... I couldn't see what I should have done to get ahead... it was obvious that a huge mortgage wasn't the answer - as that would simply transfer worry that I'd never establish the life I wanted with fear that an approximation to it would be lost at the first mishap - as I'd be committed to be financially stretched for the rest of my natural life - and, likely, to die in debt. Money itself had stopped making sense... I could afford to do just about anything - except be confident I could stay somewhere and establish a life there... which made everything else pointless.

My re-framing of money led me to this observation... once bare essentials are taken care of, money is about relative obligations. It's a partial order imposed over people - dictating an effective pecking order. I didn't much like the pecking order for the past decade - or the fact that nothing I did seemed to affect my place in it - so why should I be scared by monetary crisis? What's the worst that can happen? Might those who've over extended face bankruptcy? (Possibly - it would be unpleasant for them, but doesn't scare me.) Might work become more scarce? (Yes - but, if I can survive day to day - perhaps I'll benefit more, long term, from the freedom that arises in a less frantic environment.) I'm a little worried at the prospect for war - but, rationally, I suspect that these fears are merely an echo from history - and the world today is more peaceful than it has been for most of the past. My greatest rational fear is that people who currently feel comfortable, who've not been motivated to ask themselves why, may act irrationally as/when their lives come unstuck. In the future (though maybe not for a few years yet) I see great opportunity... for those who remain optimistic enough to pursue it. The world has already changed - radically - and people are only coming to terms with it very, very slowly.

I am particularly interested by our recent QE - as I don't think it a bullish signal. I think it's an indication that there are likely to be imminent large-scale de-leveraging, probably with a European focus, and the only way banks in Britain are going to be able to do this is by selling their best assets to the BoE - as they'd not lend to each other to raise ready-cash as they fear for each others' solvency. New opportunities will arise - but these will be difficult to spot if they involve (even very indirectly) the popular perception of asset prices.

"Don’t worry about the future; or worry, but know that worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing bubblegum."

-- Baz.

Yes - the coordinated actions by BoE (QE) and ECB (reactivation of bonds buying) yesterday are hinting that something not fun is just around the corner...

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yes on both points

there is a whole ageing generation of troughing non-jobbers middle management and cash and house savers who are going to be wiped out over this period, people who thought non-production=production, debt=wealth, doing/waffling=thinking and a whole load of other tosh

once this is cleared, ie the destruction of most of the late middle aged middle class, once this is cleared we will be clear

Fully agree, a certain corner of England has been feeding off of debt and reckless corporate expenditure for too long. On our close we have a family, husband worked as some management consultant, she doesn't work. Two 4x4's, 3 holidays a year usually to Maldives, St Lucia etc and doesn't she just love making sure everyone knows. They sold a house in 2005 for £430k which they paid £185k for in 1998. Bought this house on our close for £480k and have been spending fortunes on extensions, new kitchen etc.

Anyway 5 months ago he loses his job. I hear through the grapevine it isn't a problem because he got a huge redundancy payout + he is in demand blah blah blah. Wife in show of defiance swaps 5 yr old 4x4 for a convertible Mercedes SLK..I kid you not Brand New!! Next thing they are off to Thailand, she claims it is 5 star resort but kids let slip that it was some First Choice place.

2 weeks ago house goes up for sale £680k, even the neighbour who is constantly telling me how desirable his house is and the Close is was gobsmacked. Anyway husband still hasnt got job, he is startting to look a bit disheveled and she has no intention of ever looking for a job.

How long before the house must go down to £580k and then £500k and then how much do they need to break even because they have been MEW'ing. Scary stuff for them and end of a generation. How long before he realises he needs to reskill or take a job, any job? The very people like them that would buy their overpriced house are all in the same situation. Where do they go and who replaces them?

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Yes - the coordinated actions by BoE (QE) and ECB (reactivation of bonds buying) yesterday are hinting that something not fun is just around the corner...

On the contrary, I'm in favour of de-leverage. I think it's fun. The people involved directly might not think so, but - frankly - they should have considered that before they made their stupidly bullish plays.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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