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Newsnight - On The Verge Of A Perfect Storm


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I wish :)

Sadly despite my lack of knowledge I think I know more than most of our elected representives.

But I am still failing to understand the implications of say:

a) Greece going bust

B) Italy next

c) Ireland/Spain/Portugal joining in the party

For Mr average on the street, what is it going to mean?

It would force Eurozone govts to actually take immediate action.

They'd have to nationalise a large swathe of their banking systems immediately, as we did, pump in capital and the ECB would pump in liquidity.

I would imagine they'd be also be forced into implementing currency/capital controls to prevent electronic runs across borders and across continents.

All of this would be almost ridiculously easy to do since the significant components of all banking systems are now electronic.

They almost certainly have pretty details plans in place to keep trade flows moving around the system and payment systems working. ATMs going offline or restricting withdrawals would be an inconvenience but hardly life threatening.

The big headache would most likely be in the large money flows between banks and between currency systems. i.e. How to prevent euro holders transferring all their cash to US or Canadian banks for instance whilst still ensuring businesses can function.

It would be a damn sight easier if Merkel would just stop f*cking about like a stupid ar5e and gave Greece the £8bn pittance and forced her banks to take fresh capital and do it all tomorrow. Ditto the French. She's probably caused 10X that in lost productivity and currency/asset price falls by delaying all this for the last 18 months.

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Feck, watching Newsnight now I am beginning to worry if I have enough baked beans in.

You can never have enough baked beans.

Or West Indian Hot Pepper Sauce.

Or Velvet Quilted Toilet Roll :)

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You can never have enough baked beans.

Or West Indian Hot Pepper Sauce.

Or Velvet Quilted Toilet Roll :)

would this be a good time to mention pickled onions, because one thing i noticed on most tin foil threads is the stocking of pickled onions. i have no idea why. they contain nothing a body really needs. buy some 10kg rice bags and flour.

i have this.

Edited by right_freds_dead
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But I am still failing to understand the implications of say:

a ) Greece going bust

b ) Italy next

c ) Ireland/Spain/Portugal joining in the party

For Mr average on the street, what is it going to mean?

I don't think the implications can result in clear-cut predictions for the man on the street in Britain.

For the man on the street in Greece/Italy (and perhaps the rest - to a lesser extent) he'll see dramatically higher unemployment and reduced state support for visible services - such as policing, medical care and 'benefits'. This will have a subtle effect - it will make everyone you meet more desperate; more inclined towards criminal behaviours. To corporates domiciled in these countries it means their capital expenditure will be dramatically curtailed - because it will be obvious there can be no financial backing by their state. This will compound a collapse in the public sector with a downwards spiral in the private.

As for how other countries are affected, a lot depends upon European politics and the Euro itself. If en EU member's economy collapses - but their citizens have free movement - I'd expect a mass exodus of the workforce - those remaining being only those with no means to leave... resulting in a downwards spiral into poverty in the collapsed country. The upshot would be downwards pressure on wages in surrounding countries - coupled with an absent export market - leading to slow contagion. If collapsed states remain in the Euro, their governments will remain impotent - unable even to build a new local economy... if collapsed states leave the Euro, then the cost of all imports will sky-rocket for them. I think the implications in Britain will include the knock on effects to corporates whose business spans Europe... and, on politics, to make balancing the books in a contracting economy seem even more essential.

In summary - the effects would be substantial - but neither immediate nor easily attributed.

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Feck, watching Newsnight now I am beginning to worry if I have enough baked beans in.

Jesus, after watching the episode on iPlayer (link) I'm starting to wonder the same thing.

i was and then you lot brought me down. you bummers.

It was all MT's fault. :lol:

Him sir, it was him.

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Jesus, after watching the episode on iPlayer I'm starting to wonder the same thing.

It was very dire wasn't it. Paul Mason was doom laden enough but so were the guests.

Mason's blog of yesterday is also worth a read.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15185692

9) Is there a circuit breaker? It is certainly one of those moments where we need one. But it should be remembered that, at a similar moment in 1933, the world powers failed to find one, despite Keynes famous warning that: "Our plan must be spectacular, so as to change the grey complexion of men's minds. It must apply to all countries and to all simultaneously." The result was Depression.

10) What market people believe needs to happen is a solution similar to the US TARP in 2008 - where part nationalisation, the quarantining of bad loans on the government's balance sheet, combined with $700bn spent buying bad debts stabilised the US banks until the two big ones had to be part nationalised a few weeks later.

11) The form this will probably take in Europe is that France, Germany and Benelux refinance their own banks, while the EFSF, in current or expanded form, gets pumped into the Italian banks and the Spanish cajas. You would have to combine this with some immediate market suppressive measures: like banning short selling, banning credit default swaps or introducing an immediate Tobin Tax for countries prepared to sign up (say my sources).

12) In all circumstances, most EU politicians are coming round to some form of Greek default and the failure to disburse the 8bn euros looks more and more like the EU leaving itself the option of using this tranche to trigger the event, if it can get to the end of next week with some kind of Tarp plan in place.

13) But make no mistake: whenever the markets plunge it is because traders are taking a seasoned and reasonably well-informed view that the politicians are going to fail; that events will overwhelm them, and that there'll be disorderly defaults/exits from the eurozone. And as I have said before, a southern-European exit from the eurozone takes down north European banks that look quite healthy on sovereign exposure.

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When you start seeing stuff like that on Newsnight, it gets worrying.

I am quite shocked to hear the news overnight now talking about the BOE considering pumping 200 billion of QE printy printy into the economy - where did that come from?

A few days ago the UK's credit rating got safe-guarded because we were keeping a tight reign on spending, age of austerity, etc, Govt not going to print and now, this morning, the BBC is headlining the BOE about to print 200 billion of QE!!!

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I am quite shocked to hear the news overnight now talking about the BOE considering pumping 200 billion of QE printy printy into the economy - where did that come from?

Could be announced at today's MPC meeting maybe? Might produce something a bit more interesting than just "rates held at 0.5%".

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would this be a good time to mention pickled onions, because one thing i noticed on most tin foil threads is the stocking of pickled onions. i have no idea why. they contain nothing a body really needs. buy some 10kg rice bags and flour.

i have this.

If you run out of ammo eat pickled onions then you can breathe out instead.........and you get more personal space.

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Jesus!! Someone must be reading this thread this morning because the markets are plunging!!!! I need to go and withdraw my £43.67 from Barclays immediately!!!! I'm so scared, I'm running round like a headless chicken and can barely read an internet forum any more!!!!

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would this be a good time to mention pickled onions, because one thing i noticed on most tin foil threads is the stocking of pickled onions. i have no idea why. they contain nothing a body really needs. buy some 10kg rice bags and flour.

i have this.

...it's all round freds house then. ;)

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You can never have enough baked beans.

Or West Indian Hot Pepper Sauce.

Or Velvet Quilted Toilet Roll :)

Stocked up on the usual suspects (tinned food, UHT milk etc etc during the riots) - all of this DOES have a shelf life and life would be very dull if I were to turn it over (in my diet).

Paying serious consideration to diversifying my tin foil hat portfolio into 'shiny stuff'... practically imperishable and infinitely more tradeable when TSHTF

To that end, my £5 and £10 notes will be replaced with 35cl and 70cl bottles of vodka respectively. Starting from the w/end I'll be buying 50 bottles of each size (£750) every month.

Edited by tomposh101
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would this be a good time to mention pickled onions, because one thing i noticed on most tin foil threads is the stocking of pickled onions. i have no idea why. they contain nothing a body really needs. buy some 10kg rice bags and flour.

i have this.

Haywards pickled beetroot certainly. It should be against the laws of tin foil hattery not to have at least a few jars of pickled beetroot in your larder!

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Haywards pickled beetroot certainly. It should be against the laws of tin foil hattery not to have at least a few jars of pickled beetroot in your larder!

Don't forget the pickled cabbage!

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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