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Mr Yogi

Harry Dent - The Great Depression Ahead

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Apologies if this has been posted before - I just came across it and was gripped. A search of the forum finds no reference to Harry Dent so I want to share it with you all.

Enjoy.

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Very interesting stuff, thanks for posting.

It's worth noting that the video was recorded in Jan 2010 and some of Harry's short term predictions have proven to be a little out.

Edit: In the interests of balance, there's a video on his website posted to Youtube on 16th August which says "Don't buy gold, it's peaking at $1800 and when the crash comes it'll be hit harder than most".

Edited by Voice of Reason

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Apologies if this has been posted before - I just came across it and was gripped. A search of the forum finds no reference to Harry Dent so I want to share it with you all.

Enjoy.

Fascinating.

Thanks for the post.

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He's right that central banks haven't yet created very much base money relative to the supply of more esoteric forms of credit like CDOs, CDSs etc, but what I think he's missing is that in the not-so-distant-future central banks may end up buying those things with freshly created base money in order to prevent the financial system from pricing assets correctly collapsing.

If it takes tens of trillions to buy the world's supply of derivatives at their 2007 value, then Bernanke and King will do it.

Edited by Dorkins

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Fascinating.

Thanks for the post.

Worth listening to...keep an open mind, learn from others, gather information, come to your own conclusion...this is autumn, don't be fooled but the odd sunny day. ;)

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but what I think he's missing is that in the not-so-distant-future central banks may end up buying those things with freshly created base money in order to prevent the financial system from pricing assets correctly collapsing.

Yep - there is no incentive for the CBs/politicians to just stand back and let the collapse happen as it should. Until they finally get it, at which point they will have destroyed the value of money (and debt) completely through inflation. Get it = get out of the way.

He forgets that the debt must be destroyed.. through default or inflation, or else the depression/debt interest payments will continue for decades and sap growth. Especially given his conclusions re: baby boomers etc.

His August update video has the body language of someone whose predictions have been off and he's desperately trying to tell us that yes, really, it will crash soon. Honest guv.

But he might be right with his overall 'stocks will crash'. If the CBs are really pumping money into the stockmarkets to stop them crashing (the plunge protection team), then pumping the money in will only elevate the price of a stock, not necessarily the profitability of the company.

And so the p/e ratios will eventually go out of kilter.. and everyone will sell the stocks as the earnings don't match the (fixed) share price. At some point, the CBs will know they have to stand out of the way and let the prices crash so the next greed cycle can begin.

The CBs and their buddies are running out of bubbles to invest in - the last ones being gold/bonds, so maybe shorting every asset class bought with leverage, debt and bailouts is the next/last big 'winter' trade before 'spring' can begin again.

Thanks for the vid - it's thought provoking stuff.

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Everything dent says about demographics is right on the money, its just that it is not the only thing that is going on, not the only major long cycle trend.

As for huge stock crashes, it is very unlikely that we'll see very major differences in yield between government bonds and equities (beyond the normal spread) for any prolonged period of time. People simply need the yield income and simply cannot get buy (or refuse to accept) below 2% on a 10 year bond.

Yes, and then there is the printing press.

However, we can certainly expect a fall in the REAL price of real estate as a result of demographics over the next decades.

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Book called The Great Depression Ahead 2010- 2012.

There's still 1 1/4 years to go for it to get really going but hey Sir Mervyn of the Spendthrift Casino still holds the UK's interest rate reins ;)

Then don't forget Dave is going to "fire up" the economy around the housing sector :lol:

The Great Plan seems to have Nero as the inspiration, "fire up" and all.

Edited by billybong

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I was just about to watch it then I viewed the Wiki entry about him:

http://en.wikipedia....wiki/Harry_Dent

In his 2006 work, Dent predicted, "The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade, the NASDAQ['s] advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009 … The Great Boom['s] resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010." Of course, those who read The Roaring 2000s, Dent's 1999 masterpiece, should soon be buying each of us a turkey with all the fixin's.

He's also got an MBA from Harvard and we know how much HPC collectively hates MBAs.

I've had a chance to get a peek at the book and I think you've got the wrong idea.

Unlike so many 'gurus' out there he admits he made a mistake and then proceeded to try and correct it. I find it refreshingly honest and he explains what he does to come up with a better forecasting model.

The thing is quite a bit messy IMO because he keeps adding new cycles to make his model fit historical data but the thought process and analysis are described quite openly and you are given a chance to understand what he's up to and make up your own mind.

There is some pretty good stuff in there. BTW, the UK property market is doomed. :)

<Edit to add: He says it's deflation all the way from now on and his arguments are very convincing. I'm beginning to have more serious doubts re. my own expectation of inflation.>

Edited by _w_

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It comes down to this: IF - and its a huge IF - they do QE3, 4, 5... then we have supor to hyperinflation. Gold/Agri to the stars. If they outlaw gold then gold stocks to the next friggin' galaxy.

If they don't print then yes deflation in everything BUT your shorts.

Jack be nimble Jack be quick.

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Apologies if this has been posted before - I just came across it and was gripped. A search of the forum finds no reference to Harry Dent so I want to share it with you all.

Enjoy.

"...and my book is not expensive."

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I am reading his book now. It is all completely in line of my own thinking, however I would never want to (exact) date things the way he does. Also he gets into pricing things extremely. On the other hand if central banks continue to use the Zimbabwe school of economics, then I surely do not want to be all cash/bonds.

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Book called The Great Depression Ahead 2010- 2012.

There's still 1 1/4 years to go for it to get really going but hey Sir Mervyn of the Spendthrift Casino still holds the UK's interest rate reins ;)

Then don't forget Dave is going to "fire up" the economy around the housing sector :lol:

The Great Plan seems to have Nero as the inspiration, "fire up" and all.

If you skim the story "Great Fire of London 1666" as a small fire on Pudding Lane, in the bakeshop of Thomas Farynor, baker to King Charles II

It says "a gale-force wind was blowing"

It also says "Fires broke out all over the place (esp churches for some unknown reason)"

Thatched roof

Work it out

A certain 'body' of people did it deliberately in my view

Edited by erranta

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Scousers, yes?

Posted Today, 02:02 AM name='sossij'

11 User(s) are reading this topic

"Pudding" meant sosij in them days

("If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding, how can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat!" - witty)

You get served it up during Richard Punch 'n Judy shows and occassional Esther rantzen shows

Edited by erranta

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He sounds tuned on into the effect of demographics but maybe a bit too precise in predicting the timing of investment movements if his predictions are based largely on demographics. Last June it looks like he was advising people to get out of stocks but since then the DJI market has gone up again - only about 10% or so and there's no harm in leaving something for the next man (next person :rolleyes: ) as they used to say as it's more difficult to sell at or near the price you want if the market's falling.

However assuming his general outlook is broadly correct then the next few months seems to be as good a time as any for a downturn to start as the US elections have finished now and there's often a significant downturn after that point. Who knows?

Just a thought.

Do your own research and this is not investment advice :)

Edited by billybong

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I was just about to watch it then I viewed the Wiki entry about him:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Dent

In his 2006 work, Dent predicted, “The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade, the NASDAQ['s] advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009 … The Great Boom['s] resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010.” Of course, those who read The Roaring 2000s, Dent's 1999 masterpiece, should soon be buying each of us a turkey with all the fixin's.

He's also got an MBA from Harvard and we know how much HPC collectively hates MBAs.

DOW 40,000 Has been going since at least 1998. In CNBS world anyway,

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I knew Harry Dent. I was his friend and it will be a very long time before someone inspires us the way he did. I believed in Harry Dent.

Edited by nmarks

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I knew Harry Dent. I was his friend and it will be a very long time before someone inspires us the way he did. I believed in Harry Dent.

Is he dead?

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