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Nationwide Data Today +0.1% MoM -0.3% YoY


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Stop it! I was depressed enough already after seeing those figures!

I am at a loss as to how we have not seen significant falls yet. Everyone you talk to who's trying to sell a house says it is impossible and everyone who has sold moans about what a big reduction they've had to take, the financial news has been doom doom doom for ages, everyone is broke.... and yet it still hasn't happened.

Interest rates, interest rates....and interest rates. They've got to rise, and will even if they go kicking and screaming, but they will rise. That's the only thing stopping an almighty crash. And it will happen....just a matter of time.

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Stop it! I was depressed enough already after seeing those figures!

I am at a loss as to how we have not seen significant falls yet. Everyone you talk to who's trying to sell a house says it is impossible and everyone who has sold moans about what a big reduction they've had to take, the financial news has been doom doom doom for ages, everyone is broke.... and yet it still hasn't happened.

Whilst I can kind of see where you're coming from, consider that the mood only really began to turn a couple of months ago, and seems to have really darkened only in the past month.

The LR figures are based on a far, far larger sample, covering most transactions, cash and mortgaged, and they have fallen 9 months out of the last 12 (and before the effect of the doom and gloom kicked off). And the last one (when the majority of the population were in blissful ignorance) was still a negative. The nationwide figures only covers circa 8% of the mortgage market (which itself is only around 60% of transactions) and, like the halifax is prone to fluctuation on a month-on-month basis, hence using the quarter-on quarter figures (to smooth these out).

So, if the current mood translates into price falls, we won't really see any reliable indications for a couple of months yet.

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Stop it! I was depressed enough already after seeing those figures!

I am at a loss as to how we have not seen significant falls yet. Everyone you talk to who's trying to sell a house says it is impossible and everyone who has sold moans about what a big reduction they've had to take, the financial news has been doom doom doom for ages, everyone is broke.... and yet it still hasn't happened.

Because the few people that are buying have cash. cf London.

Look at the number of properties selling in London in the doc. It's laughably small, and lower than last year.

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They've printed enough money to keep the interest rates low, making the current debt load serviceable; they're also applying enough in-house political pressure via the nationalised banks ( and shell company purchases) to avoid mass repossessions.

Only problem with this 'genius' scheme, is that it destroys their future customer base (ftb) and ultimately the market itself. This isn't the 70's, there isn't going to be a wage rise cycle ( whilst you have an apparently permanent excess capacity of labour sheltering under a dollar/ yuan peg ). The Stealth BOE inflation policy (that worked in the 70's when markets were closed) is decimating savings and ultimately, the fractional reserve lending base of the banks themselves.

Just who are the boomers going to be able sell all these £1million plus properties to when they die or downsize? Demographics is not on their side.

I still think property will be 60-70% down in real terms over the next 12-15 years on current policy alone (that's without any interest rate rises), which will be just about the time huge numbers of boomer properties will be coming on to the market.

Dooooom.

This is 100% accurate. prices wont fall over the next year or so unfortunatly. In the end though the market will win and prices will crash. When is the qeustion,

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This is 100% accurate. prices wont fall over the next year or so unfortunatly. In the end though the market will win and prices will crash. When is the qeustion,

I wouldn't bet on it.

The coming European crash will set the ball rolling and it's only a couple of months away. Then bank rates will move independantly of the BoE rate, simply because they need to have money to survive. That's my prediction.

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I wouldn't bet on it.

The coming European crash will set the ball rolling and it's only a couple of months away. Then bank rates will move independantly of the BoE rate, simply because they need to have money to survive. That's my prediction.

Hehe, well yes, I agree too :) But in the absense of a euro crash. Which seems impossible that greece wont default badly and leave the euro and start the break up

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Also the longer this drags on the number of people wishing to buy will increase and this will put another prop under the market. I'm thinking young renters who want to start a family etc. The FTB numbers have been steadily been decreasing for over a decade those will......

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Also the longer this drags on the number of people wishing to buy will increase and this will put another prop under the market. I'm thinking young renters who want to start a family etc. The FTB numbers have been steadily been decreasing for over a decade those will......

no

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I know its not a popular view on here, but some people who are renting actually arent on the breadline, are saving, and do plan to use those savings to fund a house purchase.

This will create extra demand, how much we dont know, very possibly not enough to stop prices from falling; but you cant just ignore a whole strata of the facts and assume that all renters cant and wont be able to afford to buy.

History shows us that people, particularly British people, will prioritise house ownership above most other expenses.

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