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Nationwide Data Today +0.1% MoM -0.3% YoY


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Tomorrow's Daily Excess headline: Sensational rise in house prices

House prices soar

By a journalist who wishes to remain anonymous in the hope of getting a job at a decent paper

House prices again soared by 0.1% in what is traditionally a quiet month for house prices. Analysts have predicted that if this trend continues and increases house prices could be up to FIVE TIMES their present value within a matter of years. Leading expertz advise people to do "anything, just anything to buy a house. Sell all of your possessions, emotionally blackmail your parents and other elderly relatives into giving or lending you money, and lie about your income on your mortgage application. You just cannot lose with this one!".

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I can't help felling that the nationwide are massaging their figures....

They seem to be trying to draw a straight line :lol:

The way these figures are going I can see them turning into the BoE base rate figures, i.e. not even discussed anymore due to lack of change month after month.

A straight line is exactly what I've got in my spreadsheet for the area I watch, this is formed from the average of Nationwide, Halifax and LR.

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Uhm, anyone know what that means?

On the quarterly report, page 4 shows London at +0.5% annually and 295k.. Yet page 6 shows London as one of the top-performing regions with +4% annually at 336k. Are those different sample areas or did someone get confused? Since it's annual numbers I doubt it's anything to do with the seasonal adjustment...

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Check out the BBC article on the report...

BBC News: UK house prices treading water, says Nationwide

29 September 2011 Last updated at 07:03

House prices continued to "tread water" in September - rising by 0.1% compared with the previous month, the Nationwide said.

This left the average price of a home 0.3% lower than a year earlier, at £166,256, the building society said.

Prices for the three months to September compared with the previous quarter were unchanged.

Market turmoil as a result of the eurozone debt crisis had hit confidence among buyers, Nationwide said.

"Sentiment towards major purchases is depressed, as a result of weak labour market conditions and ongoing pressure on household budgets from above-target inflation," said Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist.

'Sluggish demand'

He predicted that property prices would remain fairly stable over the rest of 2011, although the outlook for the global economy had "darkened".

The struggle for people to find new jobs has resulted in "sluggish demand" from potential buyers.

That, together with a gradual rise in the number of properties on the market, had led to the current market conditions.

Some of these issues are most acute in the north-east of England.

Data from the Land Registry on Wednesday showed that prices in the region had fallen by 7.8% in the year to August.

In Hartlepool, prices had dropped by 15.7% over the same period, leaving the average home worth £82,561.

David Sharpe, a sales negotiator at Dowen estate agents in the port town, said that times were difficult for sellers, especially if they were unwilling to drop their asking prices.

"We are telling people to be realistic. If the price is right then it will sell," he said.

Negative equity

Many of the properties coming onto the market in Hartlepool were the result of repossessions, he said. These included repossessed properties from landlords who had overstretched themselves.

This meant there were some two-bedroom homes in need of some work that were on the market for £20,000.

However, at the other end of the market, Dowen had just sold an eight-bedroom period property at auction for £345,000.

Many properties were selling if prices were lowered, Mr Sharpe said, including one "extreme case" which recently sold at auction for £30,000 when it had originally been on the market for £80,000.

Dropping prices was not necessarily an option for some sellers though.

"Those who bought at the peak of the market may well have borrowed more than the property is now worth," he said.

Reality finally bites.

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I see no point in trusting any of the conventional figures. Since Narionwide's is based on branch level mortgages, that is a poor indicator of prices. It might follow the actual trend eventually but is quite useless for spotting monthy changes. Rightmove and Hometrack's should be dismissed straightaway as they are intrinsically false. RIC's is entirely corrupt, being based on the subjective opinion of its vested interest members.

Even the land registry can't be relied on because it doesn't include repossessions, but since repossessions are very often the result of a seller holding on in a sinking market then handing in the keys, they of course should be included.

The only way to check trends is to keep an eye on advertised prices then watch them sink over time, and then check what the actual transaction was. Even then there are distortions.

Edited by VacantPossession
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I see no point in trusting any of the conventional figures. Since Narionwide's is based on branch level mortgages, that is a poor indicator of prices. It might follow the actual trend eventually but is quite useless for spotting monthy changes. Rightmove and Hometrack's should be dismissed straightaway as they are intrinsically false. RIC's is entirely corrupt, being based on the subjective opinion of its vested interest members.

Even the land registry can't be relied on because it doesn't include repossessions, but since repossessions are very often the result of a seller holding on in a sinking market then handing in the keys, they of course should be included.

The only way to check trends is to keep an eye on advertised prices then watch them sink over time, and then check what the actual transaction was. Even then there are distortions.

Does anone have the NSA figures?

SA ruins these figures because the market was so volatile in 2008 and 2009.

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Still no crash, nor even a hint of a crash.

For the first time in markets ever, there appears to have been a plateau following a boom. Whether it will remain flat for long remains to be seen, but flat it is.

Perhaps the greatest hope comes from the rise in interbank lending costs. Banks have to raise mortgage rates to remain profitable. Short of that, I can see nothing to suggest that house prices will fall markedly anytime soon.

Unless Europe blows up, and then who knows what will happen? We might even get a rush into property as a way of preserving capital.

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Still no crash, nor even a hint of a crash.

For the first time in markets ever, there appears to have been a plateau following a boom. Whether it will remain flat for long remains to be seen, but flat it is.

Perhaps the greatest hope comes from the rise in interbank lending costs. Banks have to raise mortgage rates to remain profitable. Short of that, I can see nothing to suggest that house prices will fall markedly anytime soon.

Unless Europe blows up, and then who knows what will happen? We might even get a rush into property as a way of preserving capital.

They've printed enough money to keep the interest rates low, making the current debt load serviceable; they're also applying enough in-house political pressure via the nationalised banks ( and shell company purchases) to avoid mass repossessions.

Only problem with this 'genius' scheme, is that it destroys their future customer base (ftb) and ultimately the market itself. This isn't the 70's, there isn't going to be a wage rise cycle ( whilst you have an apparently permanent excess capacity of labour sheltering under a dollar/ yuan peg ). The Stealth BOE inflation policy (that worked in the 70's when markets were closed) is decimating savings and ultimately, the fractional reserve lending base of the banks themselves.

Just who are the boomers going to be able sell all these £1million plus properties to when they die or downsize? Demographics is not on their side.

I still think property will be 60-70% down in real terms over the next 12-15 years on current policy alone (that's without any interest rate rises), which will be just about the time huge numbers of boomer properties will be coming on to the market.

Dooooom.

apocalypse.jpg

Edited by Jack's Creation
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Still no crash, nor even a hint of a crash.

For the first time in markets ever, there appears to have been a plateau following a boom. Whether it will remain flat for long remains to be seen, but flat it is.

Perhaps the greatest hope comes from the rise in interbank lending costs. Banks have to raise mortgage rates to remain profitable. Short of that, I can see nothing to suggest that house prices will fall markedly anytime soon.

Unless Europe blows up, and then who knows what will happen? We might even get a rush into property as a way of preserving capital.

Stop it! I was depressed enough already after seeing those figures!

I am at a loss as to how we have not seen significant falls yet. Everyone you talk to who's trying to sell a house says it is impossible and everyone who has sold moans about what a big reduction they've had to take, the financial news has been doom doom doom for ages, everyone is broke.... and yet it still hasn't happened.

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