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Us And Uk Already In Recession, Warns Nouriel Roubini

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8792864/US-and-UK-already-in-recession-warns-Nouriel-Roubini.html

“The way I see the global economy, I think we’re entering into a recession again in most advanced economies,” Roubini said in a panel discussion at the Bloomberg Dealmakers Summit in New York. “I think we’re already into one in the US based on the hard and soft data - same with most of the eurozone, same with the UK.”

The Conference Board said on Tuesday that confidence among US consumers stagnated in September near a two-year low, as the share of households saying it was difficult to find a job climbed to the highest level in almost three decades. European leaders over the weekend faced pressure at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund to solve a debt crisis already spilling over into other parts of the world.

“At this point, the issue is not whether there is going to be a recession or a double-dip but whether it’s going to be relatively mild or whether it’s going to be a severe recession and a global financial crisis,” Roubini said. “The answer to that question depends on what’s going to happen in the eurozone and whether they can get their act together.”

“We are running out of policy bullets,” said Roubini, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. The debt crisis in Europe could have consequences that are “worse” than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

There are no policy bullets to avoid a recession, all what policy bullets achieve is kicking the can further down the road and creating an even bigger problem. The world would have been in a far better position now if Paulson had let the system purge itself of all the crap in the system unfortunately that would also have meant Paulson's giant squid buddies going under and that clearly wasn't going to be allowed. Too many political lies where going to be exposed so we fudged and had a "recovery"....

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8792864/US-and-UK-already-in-recession-warns-Nouriel-Roubini.html

There are no policy bullets to avoid a recession, all what policy bullets achieve is kicking the can further down the road and creating an even bigger problem. The world would have been in a far better position now if Paulson had let the system purge itself of all the crap in the system unfortunately that would also have meant Paulson's giant squid buddies going under and that clearly wasn't going to be allowed. Too many political lies where going to be exposed so we fudged and had a "recovery"....

The big question I see is whether the Euro bail out package is in fact realistic. Where is the Two TRILLION Euros to come from? b]Can anyone answer that?[/b][/color] If it will be printed or promised non existent funds, then I don't see markets taking it seriously for long. Does it exist if called for? Can it be used without some other dire economic consequence? What if Italy needs to use a massive part of it? How will the markest react? Will they say, that's Ok because the bail out fund can handle this, or will they say it is an unaffordable step and really it is default under another name?

Will the markets relax because Greece is allowed to do a 50% default or will they look for the next defaulter?

Mrs Thatcher used to have a phrase that contained alot of truth: 'You cannot buck the market'. How right she was as the pound fell from the Exchange rate mechanism saving us from ever wanting to join the Euro. It was considered a policy failure at the time, but actually it was just the right thing for Britain. The politics of it all for 2-3 years before was all about pressing us to join this ERM. On and on went the Labour party saying we should or we'll be left behind etc etc. Same old fear game.

Edited by plummet expert

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The big question I see is whether the Euro bail out package is in fact realistic. Where is the Two TRILLION Euros to come from? Can anyone answer that?[/color] If it will be printed or promised non existent funds, then I don't see markets taking it seriously for long. Does it exist if called for? Can it be used without some other dire economic consequence? What if Italy needs to use a massive part of it? How will the markest react? Will they say, that's Ok because the bail out fund can handle this, or will they say it is an unaffordable step and really it is default under another name?

Will the markets relax because Greece is allowed to do a 50% default or will they look for the next defaulter?

Mrs Thatcher used to have a phrase that contained alot of truth: 'You cannot buck the market'. How right she was as the pound fell from the Exchange rate mechanism saving us from ever wanting to join the Euro. It was considered a policy failure at the time, but actually it was just the right thing for Britain. The politics of it all for 2-3 years before was all about pressing us to join this ERM. On and on went the Labour party saying we should or we'll be left behind etc etc. Same old fear game.

Explanation I have heard so far is the riskier parts of the loan will be funded out of the existing Euro fund (which isn't government money, it's private money in there) and the rest is to be raised through private routes? Can't quite fathom why anyone would go for it even with the riskier elements taken out.

Radio today said talks on Greece defaults haven't happened, they are misreported. They then said if Greece does default it will not be 50% it will be total. That was from some lady in on the conversations and not outside it all. So I understand. Radio4 around 8am I think, if anyones interested.

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The official figures might have came out of recession, but the ordinary man on the street did not.

Printing billions of pounds and giving it to your mates to boost the economy, at the same time shafting the ordinary people and making the cost of living unbearable is not, I repeat, not a recovery.

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The official figures might have came out of recession, but the ordinary man on the street did not.

Printing billions of pounds and giving it to your mates to boost the economy, at the same time shafting the ordinary people and making the cost of living unbearable is not, I repeat, not a recovery.

Interestingly I was at a wedding this weekend and just about everybody I spoke to said their job situation was looking uncertain and that business was poor. I even met one couple who are looking to relocate to rural Yorkshire from the outskirts of London, because "when it all kicks off, I want to be as far from a major built up area as possible"!

Also mentions of how we only came out of the last recession via statistical manipulation and reality was not matching up with government fantasy... the sheeple are stirring.

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Interestingly I was at a wedding this weekend and just about everybody I spoke to said their job situation was looking uncertain and that business was poor. I even met one couple who are looking to relocate to rural Yorkshire from the outskirts of London, because "when it all kicks off, I want to be as far from a major built up area as possible"!

Also mentions of how we only came out of the last recession via statistical manipulation and reality was not matching up with government fantasy... the sheeple are stirring.

It was obvious 6 months ago that we were headed back to the recession which never really ended except for bankers on bonuses. The much trumpeted Osborne export lead recovery via manufacturing was a statistical nonsense. The fact is that the fomer two years caused everything to stutter to a halt and the figures became lousy, so on springback they looked like some reasonable growth/increase, when they were nothing of the sort. Just a careful use of stats to tell you the austerity programme was producing this export lead recovery, that on account of all this the markets were loving our bonds. Truth is we are nowhere near dealing with the structural deficit and without strong growth there will be no escape from our national debt which is too huge to contemplate. Italy is worse and will fall into real trouble this winter. We will find ourselves in a difficult position soon enough thereafter.

The argument is whether vast sums of borrowing to get growth with inflation and other risks is better than saying it's beyond stimulus solutions and the recession will have to run its course. If you could buy your way out of a recession then we never need have one and could stifle the business cycle for good, so I don't believe that.

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It was obvious 6 months ago that we were headed back to the recession which never really ended except for bankers on bonuses. The much trumpeted Osborne export lead recovery via manufacturing was a statistical nonsense. The fact is that the fomer two years caused everything to stutter to a halt and the figures became lousy, so on springback they looked like some reasonable growth/increase, when they were nothing of the sort. Just a careful use of stats to tell you the austerity programme was producing this export lead recovery, that on account of all this the markets were loving our bonds. Truth is we are nowhere near dealing with the structural deficit and without strong growth there will be no escape from our national debt which is too huge to contemplate. Italy is worse and will fall into real trouble this winter. We will find ourselves in a difficult position soon enough thereafter.

The argument is whether vast sums of borrowing to get growth with inflation and other risks is better than saying it's beyond stimulus solutions and the recession will have to run its course. If you could buy your way out of a recession then we never need have one and could stifle the business cycle for good, so I don't believe that.

If that growth can be achieved (fat chance) would it simply put us into a different long-term unsustainable position? Ultimately a position must be found where it's possible to maintain the status quo at that time indefinitely.

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If that growth can be achieved (fat chance) would it simply put us into a different long-term unsustainable position? Ultimately a position must be found where it's possible to maintain the status quo at that time indefinitely.

Correct. I do not believe we can simply spend more, see growth and then pay off the debt. It's way beond that point. Research posted on here showed graphs which highlighted how the keynesian stimulus technique loses its power the more you borrow until it actually becomes negative if you borrow more - you default. We, Euroland and the US are all at that point to varying degrees. As we are all in the same mess it is far more difficult to recover quickly. Long recession coming, probably the worst of our lives. No doubt in 80 years time the same stupid greedy mistakes will all happen again....1930's, 2010's and then 2090's?

Edited by plummet expert

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Correct. I do not believe we can simply spend more, see growth and then pay off the debt. It's way beond that point. Research posted on here showed graphs which highlighted how the keynesian stimulus technique loses its power the more you borrow until it actually becomes negative if you borrow more - you default. We, Euroland and the US are all at that point to varying degrees. As we are all in the same mess it is far more difficult to recover quickly. Long recession coming, probably the worst of our lives. No doubt in 80 years time the same stupid greedy mistakes will all happen again....1930's, 2010's and then 2090's?

Spot on. What is incredible is that the media talk about a need for "Plan B" as if the government's plan is "Plan" A. so-called Keynesian piss-up under Labour was the real Plan A and the more they spent the less impact it had on the economy. We know how that one went. The real Plan B is what Osborne's doing now (although too mildly). And Plan C is massive deleveraging, be it through default, repossessions, debt forgiveness, etc. I can't see Plan C being avoided. Any calls to return to Keynesian spending is bonkers now, it's too late.

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Spot on. What is incredible is that the media talk about a need for "Plan B" as if the government's plan is "Plan" A. so-called Keynesian piss-up under Labour was the real Plan A and the more they spent the less impact it had on the economy. We know how that one went. The real Plan B is what Osborne's doing now (although too mildly). And Plan C is massive deleveraging, be it through default, repossessions, debt forgiveness, etc. I can't see Plan C being avoided. Any calls to return to Keynesian spending is bonkers now, it's too late.

However for it to be really Keynesian we would be spending the surplus we saved during the boom which was abolished under Brown. Keynes never advocated perpetual stimulus especially during a boom.

Edited by interestrateripoff

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Surprise, surprise. The economies built on personal debt to buy imported cr@p are leading the world back into recession. Would that be anything to do with the fact that the populations of both countries are maxed out on debt and already have houses full of consumer cr@p that they didn't need in the first place and certainly don't need any more of. Why not cut VAT, that should help :lol:

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Interestingly I was at a wedding this weekend and just about everybody I spoke to said their job situation was looking uncertain and that business was poor. I even met one couple who are looking to relocate to rural Yorkshire from the outskirts of London, because "when it all kicks off, I want to be as far from a major built up area as possible"!

Also mentions of how we only came out of the last recession via statistical manipulation and reality was not matching up with government fantasy... the sheeple are stirring.

Us Yorkshire folk are a friendly bunch but we don't tend to like the Londoners, they come up here and bid up prices, and they don't seem to fit in. You'll find a lot of Scottish people in Yorkshire and they tend to fit in quite easily.

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No doubt in 80 years time the same stupid greedy mistakes will all happen again....1930's, 2010's and then 2090's?

If you're going to call a black 2090s, be a man about it and start a new thread ;)

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  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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