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frenchy

Have Embarked On A Crusade - I May Be Wasting My Time Though

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I have decided to tell agents what I think of the market (and share with you guys if you can be bothered to read). Up until now I had largely refused to offer without really saying why to EA.

Some of you have suggested that I was shooting myself in the foot doing this, but I feel I have to do my bit rather than just wait for the paint to dry.

Thoughts are appreciated...

Good morning Jxxxx,

Rxxx mentioned that she missed a call from you regarding a new house you have for sale.

I presume it is 7 Txxx Wxxx or 71 Fxxx Cxxx that have appeared on Rightmove recently?

Unfortunately we are not interested in viewing either although I will take the time (as I can't sleep tonight for some reason) to tell you why if it is of any interest to you to get some feedback.

Please skip the following if you are too busy, I just thought it might be useful to know what buyers think as I know many people in my position (large deposit, ready to go) who don't even bother viewing at the moment, let alone give feedback.

7 Txxx Wxxx:

This house is exactly the sort of house we would typically be interested in buying, however I can see all I need to from RM;

and it would appear to me that (like many other houses in Sxxxx and elsewhere) the sellers evidently don't need or want to sell there house!

so we don't really want to waste your time (and ours) viewing it:

- it is 4 bed house marketed as a 5 bed (very irritating from a buyers point of view by the way, why not Bedroom 6 / sitting room?);

- it is SMALL for a 4 bed judging by room sizes and layout (although there is no floor plan), I could be wrong but I suspect the EPC lists less than 90m2 (excluding the - irrelevant! - £6-7k conservatory) ;

- despite the nice laminate flooring it does not strike has being in excellent condition (although I could be wrong again) judging by the kitchen pics (chipped worktop corners and a tired looking cooker) and with no picture of the bathroom I can only assume it is not a selling point (although again I may be unfair here);

- it is on for 300k when similar larger houses in Sxxxx have only managed to achieve 250-270k recently;

- using the optimistic Nationwide House Price calculator (that I was in the past criticised by another EA for not using) returns a valuation of 232k (based on 130k paid in 2001);

- in fact it is the same size as 125 Nxxx that only achieved 225k and is probably 15m2 smaller than 127 Nxxxx currently on at 255k and that probably won't sell for more than 250k if they are lucky;

(it is probably of identical proportions to this LINK TO IDENTICAL HOUSE IN SAME PART OF THE WORLD which has been on the market for over a year if I remember correctly and that isn't going anywhere fast).

So to cut a long story short, this very small / 4 bed house is certainly not worth more than 250k and probably actually only worth around 220-230k in the present market. I am not saying it won't sell for more than 250k as it only takes one mug but I would be very surprised (in fact I would find it depressing if it did).

71 Fxxx Cxxx:

I personally don't like this part of Sxxxx as it is too cramped and seriously lack parking spaces and "privacy" (all things being equal). I had a look at it however out of curiosity.

I had a look at planning application PT07/2xxx/F and although the extension adds living space, it remains a large 3 bed no bigger than the 4 bed currently struggling to sell around the 250k mark in Fxxxx (although you apparently managed to sell #75 for an impressive 265k in the spring, that is going to be one sore "homeowner" in months/years to come). EDIT: the same house but with a garden twice as large and in better condition throughout sold 3 weekd earlier (may 2011) for 250k, I viewed both.

It appears in very nice conditions inside and probably wouldn't need much more than a bit of paint. So if I wanted to live in Fxxx and had 250-260k to spend on a house I would rather buy this LINK TO HOUSE 200yds AWAY BUT LARGER AND NICER I would get 4 bed, a slightly higher m2, a larger garden and it wouldn't be a corner plot...

Again, it only takes one mug and there are still some (with money) out there at present.

Please don't get me wrong, I am actively (and with great frustration) looking to buy a house in Sxxx but not at the prices being asked.

I cannot wait for interest rates to rise for all this charade to end.

Feel free to use the above to reason your sellers if you think they should (as I presume you have no choice but to attract them with high valuations in the first place), but make sure my name and details are edited out please

Best Regards,

Axxxx

Edited by frenchy

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I have decided to tell agents what I think of the market (and share with you guys if you can be bothered to read). Up until now I had largely refused to offer without really saying why to EA.

Some of you have suggested that I was shooting myself in the foot doing this, but I feel I have to do my bit rather than just wait for the paint to dry.

Thoughts are appreciated...

Good morning Jxxxx,

Rxxx mentioned that she missed a call from you regarding a new house you have for sale.

I presume it is 7 Txxx Wxxx or 71 Fxxx Cxxx that have appeared on Rightmove recently?

Unfortunately we are not interested in viewing either although I will take the time (as I can't sleep tonight for some reason) to tell you why if it is of any interest to you to get some feedback.

Please skip the following if you are too busy, I just thought it might be useful to know what buyers think as I know many people in my position (large deposit, ready to go) who don't even bother viewing at the moment, let alone give feedback.

7 Txxx Wxxx:

This house is exactly the sort of house we would typically be interested in buying, however I can see all I need to from RM;

and it would appear to me that (like many other houses in Sxxxx and elsewhere) the sellers evidently don't need or want to sell there house!

so we don't really want to waste your time (and ours) viewing it:

- it is 4 bed house marketed as a 5 bed (very irritating from a buyers point of view by the way, why not Bedroom 6 / sitting room?);

- it is SMALL for a 4 bed judging by room sizes and layout (although there is no floor plan), I could be wrong but I suspect the EPC lists less than 90m2 (excluding the - irrelevant! - £6-7k conservatory) ;

- despite the nice laminate flooring it does not strike has being in excellent condition (although I could be wrong again) judging by the kitchen pics (chipped worktop corners and a tired looking cooker) and with no picture of the bathroom I can only assume it is not a selling point (although again I may be unfair here);

- it is on for 300k when similar larger houses in Sxxxx have only managed to achieve 250-270k recently;

- using the optimistic Nationwide House Price calculator (that I was in the past criticised by another EA for not using) returns a valuation of 232k (based on 130k paid in 2001);

- in fact it is the same size as 125 Nxxxx that only achieved 225k and is probably 15m2 smaller than 127 Nxxx currently on at 255k and that probably won't sell for more than 250k if they are lucky;

(it is probably of identical proportions to this LINK TO IDENTICAL HOUSE IN SAME PART OF THE WORLD which has been on the market for over a year if I remember correctly and that isn't going anywhere fast).

So to cut a long story short, this very small / 4 bed house is certainly not worth more than 250k and probably actually only worth around 220-230k in the present market. I am not saying it won't sell for more than 250k as it only takes one mug but I would be very surprised (in fact I would find it depressing if it did).

71 Fxxx Cxxx:

I personally don't like this part of Sxxxx as it is too cramped and seriously lack parking spaces and "privacy" (all things being equal). I had a look at it however out of curiosity.

I had a look at planning application PT07/2xxx/F and although the extension adds living space, it remains a large 3 bed no bigger than the 4 bed currently struggling to sell around the 250k mark in Field Farm Close (although you apparently managed to sell #75 for an impressive 265k in the spring, that is going to be one sore "homeowner" in months/years to come). EDIT: the same house but with a garden twice as large and in better condition throughout sold 3 weekd earlier (may 2011) for 250k, I viewed both.

It appears in very nice conditions inside and probably wouldn't need much more than a bit of paint. So if I wanted to live in Fxxx Cxxx and had 250-260k to spend on a house I would rather buy this LINK TO HOUSE 200yds AWAY BUT LARGER AND NICER I would get 4 bed, a slightly higher m2, a larger garden and it wouldn't be a corner plot...

Again, it only takes one mug and there are still some (with money) out there at present.

Please don't get me wrong, I am actively (and with great frustration) looking to buy a house in Sxxxx but not at the prices being asked.

I cannot wait for interest rates to rise for all this charade to end.

Feel free to use the above to reason your sellers if you think they should (as I presume you have no choice but to attract them with high valuations in the first place), but make sure my name and details are edited out please

Best Regards,

Axxxx

Edited by frenchy

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Well done. More honesty needed.

I talk the market down whenever I can.

Estate agents need to know that people are sick of the silly asking prices.

Thanks for your support Count.

Mods could you merge both (duplicate) threads, have made a mistake once again, thanks...

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I would sort out your grammer/spelling before sending it (fine one to suggest that and wasted on the average estate Agent, as is anything other than line drawings).

You are assuming EAs can spell and have a grasp of grammar :lol:

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If it makes you feel better then do it - I will be interested in the replies (if you get any).

You are stating accurate facts and facts the EA is fully aware of ... the statements will come as no shock to the EA concerned.

At the end of the day, you are either an active buyer in the current market, at the current prices, or you are not .... you clearly are not and therefore should really spend your time doing something constructive with your family or some hobby - anything that is less negative. IMHO.

I am looking to buy too - and, yes, it annoys me a lot that the prices are not falling and the sellers don't want to accept the offers I make (even though I believe those offers to be sensible). BUT - it is a free market .... I don't have to pay the prices asked, and they don't have to sell at the price I ask them to!! Getting all hot under the collar about it changes nothing - only the market will change things.

Get out and do something worthwhile is my advice .... you'll just drag yourself down and make yourself mad - for no reason ...... one day the prices may reach your floor and you will buy, until then, chill ....

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I welcome your efforts frenchy, but I would perhaps have omitted the bit about rate rises sorting the problem out.

For starters, no one thinks rates are going up any time soon. Your statement thus loses its impact as its doesnt convey any sense of urgency.

Also, I think the interest rate argument is a red herring. They wont be the tipping point. They will merely heap more misery when things are already a long way past bleak. In fact, I often wonder if the focus on interest rates is propagated by VI's as it lulls buyers into a false sense of security and distracts them from the issues that may ultimately cost them their homes!

The cost of living is increasing faster than incomes. The tide is already coming in slowly. Hundreds of thousands of mortgagors are already underwater and a greater number are merely 'up to their necks'. But we (potential buyers) are happy to believe they are comfortable.

Interest rates will simply finish off those who escape the drip drip drip attack on their standard of living that inflation represents!

Edited by Caveat Mortgagor

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If it makes you feel better then do it - I will be interested in the replies (if you get any).

You are stating accurate facts and facts the EA is fully aware of ... the statements will come as no shock to the EA concerned.

At the end of the day, you are either an active buyer in the current market, at the current prices, or you are not .... you clearly are not and therefore should really spend your time doing something constructive with your family or some hobby - anything that is less negative. IMHO.

I am looking to buy too - and, yes, it annoys me a lot that the prices are not falling and the sellers don't want to accept the offers I make (even though I believe those offers to be sensible). BUT - it is a free market .... I don't have to pay the prices asked, and they don't have to sell at the price I ask them to!! Getting all hot under the collar about it changes nothing - only the market will change things.

Get out and do something worthwhile is my advice .... you'll just drag yourself down and make yourself mad - for no reason ...... one day the prices may reach your floor and you will buy, until then, chill ....

Hi MrRee, on the subject of getting out and hobby, don't worry about me, I race motorbikes around Europe (was last in Finland for a race 3 weeks early august) so rarely have time to spare at weekends. I am not really getting hot under the collar TBH, but how can you expect the free market to free-up if sellers and EA are not faced with reality? It is not like houses are selling is it? So the market is anything but "free".

If it is of any interest, each time I have given feedback to an EA it has had an impact, I think that although the EA knows what I am telling them they cannot say it to the seller and it has to come from a buyer, so no feedback no adjustment:

- viewed a house last November 2010 asking 287.5k, said to the agent I would not bother putting offer as it was 40k over current selling prices, house was withdraan from the market a week later; back in July at 280k though and not selling;

- viewed a house in June 2011 asking in excess of 300k, offered 250k+10k, EA thought it was a good offer, got bored waiting for an answer withdrew offer and house got dropped on RM to 270k later that day, together with another house in same street with same EA dropped from 270k to 250k;

- viewed a house 3 weeks ago on a 236k, told EA I would not even offer anything as it would be too far from seller's apparent expectation, house was dropped to 229k the following day on RM;

So it may be free-market but I have still been able to do my bit, remains to be seen what happens to the 2 houses I have commented on in coming days.

-

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Hi MrRee, on the subject of getting out and hobby, don't worry about me, I race motorbikes around Europe (was last in Finland for a race 3 weeks early august) so rarely have time to spare at weekends. I am not really getting hot under the collar TBH, but how can you expect the free market to free-up if sellers and EA are not faced with reality? It is not like houses are selling is it? So the market is anything but "free".

If it is of any interest, each time I have given feedback to an EA it has had an impact, I think that although the EA knows what I am telling them they cannot say it to the seller and it has to come from a buyer, so no feedback no adjustment:

- viewed a house last November 2010 asking 287.5k, said to the agent I would not bother putting offer as it was 40k over current selling prices, house was withdraan from the market a week later; back in July at 280k though and not selling;

- viewed a house in June 2011 asking in excess of 300k, offered 250k+10k, EA thought it was a good offer, got bored waiting for an answer withdrew offer and house got dropped on RM to 270k later that day, together with another house in same street with same EA dropped from 270k to 250k;

- viewed a house 3 weeks ago on a 236k, told EA I would not even offer anything as it would be too far from seller's apparent expectation, house was dropped to 229k the following day on RM;

So it may be free-market but I have still been able to do my bit, remains to be seen what happens to the 2 houses I have commented on in coming days.

It's all good and helps to create the narrative.

My strategy when I begin to look seriously into buying a house will be a simpler approach along the lines of "these houses nearby sold for £x, therefore my formal offer is £y, please convey this to the vendor. My offer is open for 3 weeks and is then subject to revision" I expect my offers to be 30% off asking at least.

EAs and vendors may be able to dismiss one such offer as a time wasting renting nobody (Sibley Syndrome). After 10 offers they might start to crack.

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10 years of credit boom have taken the reality out of market, during that era anything would sell. Today the reality is that one needs to put 25% deposit (around 65K average according to The Telegraph) - the market has changed and that kind of money does not grows on trees :rolleyes:. The EA and the Vendors still assume people out there are fools who will pay over the odds.:angry:

What Frenchy is doing is fantastic - it is bitter but it is the way things are. Well done Frenchy, hopefully few EA's will smell the coffee :)

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How right you are. And I don't mean about wasting your time. HPC needs a militant wing if it is not to be just a talking shop. Otherwise we just bitch amongst ourselves, out numbered and outgunned by the vested interests, and largely ignored.

Example - house appears on Rightmove £350,000. After a month price drops to £325,000 so I go and have a look. Estate agent pesters, so I tell him it ain't worth it. EA says make an offer then, so I offer £270,000. EA grinds teeth etc, says offer refused, would take £300,000. Vendor has now decided to drop the advertised price to £310,000. And that's my point - if enough of us make aggressive (but realistic at least to sane people) offers, the vendors' confidence crumbles. The problem for HPC is that most buyers are too soft, too grateful, and prone get carried away. They think 'negotiating' a couple of grand off a £300k house is an achievement. It's not even one percent!

Morgan Kelly Professor of Economics at University College Dublin, who has analysed house price bubbles in Ireland, Spain, Japan, the UK and elsewhere says bubbles lose 70% of gains during the subsequent bust:

“Typically, real house prices give up 70 per cent of what they gained in a boom during the bust that follows. This is a remarkably robust relationship, holding across very different OECD housing markets over more than 30 years.”

If you apply his numbers to the current UK bubble, they still have 25% to fall, even taking inflation into account. So, fellow HPCers, please get out there and start spreading some gloom and despondency. You know it makes sense.

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“Typically, real house prices give up 70 per cent of what they gained in a boom during the bust that follows. This is a remarkably robust relationship, holding across very different OECD housing markets over more than 30 years.”

If you apply his numbers to the current UK bubble, they still have 25% to fall, even taking inflation into account. So, fellow HPCers, please get out there and start spreading some gloom and despondency. You know it makes sense.

I WOULD ADD TO THIS THE FACT THAT THE CURRENT CRISIS IS THE LARGE 80YR CYCLE BUBBLE BURSTING, NOT JUST ONE OF THE 7-15YR VARIETY. That means the fall in prices could well overshoot the expected target. Since wages are falling/set to fall further and the price rises we saw 94- 2007 took place in a very low inflation environment, they were all the more ludicrous. I still believe we could end up as in the USA, 40-60% down from here. Dealfationary pressures may be around for a long time in this cycle bust. 'No more boom and bust' said a man who ran the country until 2010! People who live within a system of capitalism cannot seriously believ you can eradicate cycles? You can avoid the crass stupidity of IR's being too low for years, stoking it up more. But avoid them? No WAY

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HA HA HA HA ..... you lot make me chuckle.

For 3 years I have been attempting to buy another property, as a Holiday/Weekend retreat and the time to offer, and get 25% OFF, was Autumn 2009. Not before, or since has that been possible. And I thought it had further to fall, while those brave souls who bought in late 2009 are now selling a vast profits!

In one case a bungalow by the sea sold for £197,500 - I could have bought for that too, but didn't!! It has just sold for £325,000!!! The time for bargains has passed I'm afraid.

I like nothing better than baiting and tormentting EA's - the same as others on here ...... but, I am intelligent to know that I cannot dictate the market ... the market will find its own level.

The truth is that some on here will never buy - prices will always be about to fall further .... whilst others get on with life and jump in. I'm the same as you, dithering around with a dream of a second property in my head ...... but, at least I own a home outright already, so I can benefit from both sides of the same coin.

Far from EA's thinking you are serious by continuing to put in silly offers and writing pointless letters and e-mails, they think you are the equivalent of a tyrekicker (someone who has zero intention of buying, at any price whatsoever) ... and they laugh at you with their EA mates down the pub. EA's may be the most annoying of people but they do know the market has its own forces - and those forces are not affected by bitter buyers who aren't really buyers at all ....... and that's the plain truth of it all.

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For 3 years I have been attempting to buy another property, as a Holiday/Weekend retreat and the time to offer, and get 25% OFF, was Autumn 2009. Not before, or since has that been possible. And I thought it had further to fall, while those brave souls who bought in late 2009 are now selling a vast profits!

Hardly vast profits.

I actually bought in 2009 (brand new detached house) and managed to pay the second least on the whole development (neighbour bought 2008- 4% less- smaller garden). My other neighbour (same house type a few doors away) accepted a sale in 2010 for £240k, but pulled out as couldn't find a house to buy, they are now selling again and have accepted an offer of £235k

On that basis I would have made £15k (6.8%) in nearly two years, but that excludes the £8-9k I spent on fixtures and fittings. In fact last week I worked out I would have been better not buying, and continuing to rent - but it's not all about money, I like where I live and saw the houseshare I was in as a stop gap.

My view now, is we are entering the next leg down. I don't think it will drop much, due to v low rates, but the economy is in huge trouble and inflation is killing disposable income.

I also hope prices come down more, as I can easily afford my mortgage and the next house would also be cheaper (my m8s think I'm mad for having this view).

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Hardly vast profits.

Not sure that you read my post accurately ... I gave an example of a bungalow bought for £197,500 in 2009 and sold this year for £325,000 ... only the garden was cleared and the internals decorated.

Not sure what your personal markers are but, in my book, that IS a vast profit ....

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I emailed my housing association today. (I'm more concerned with affordable housing to rent you see).

>>>Recently there was an estate walkabout, asking how residents would like the extra money from higher rents to be spent. I personally asked for a rent reduction, or perhaps a shower. Money is tight at the minute, and finding a secure job is even harder, I'm in and out of employment all the time, often picking up agency work, sometimes I'm fortunate to get a temporary contract and a wage with which I can budget. Rent is by far my biggest outgoing. I've reduced all of my outgoings pretty much as far as possible. The person conducting the walkabout suggested we had burglar alarms, but this would only add further to the electric bills to residents, and myself personally, I've nothing really worth nicking in the first place.<br style="line-height: 17px; ">I would like to know if there is any chance of a rent reduction?Or perhaps, an electric shower (this would allow me to get the gas cut off, as I currently have to rely on the gas for bathing in the winter you see)?<br style="line-height: 17px; ">A few other things that have crossed my mind, is to turn over the communal garden to food production, or least one 1/8 of it behind the block of 8 flats that I'm in, the local allotment waiting list is over 2 years! Part of the water bills for the flats are a 'rain tax' a.k.a. surface water drainage charge . If water falling on the roof of the property was diverted to a soakway, then each residents' bill could be reduced by £5 per month, quite a considerable amount! It might even be the case, that it already is, and that Yorkshire water are unfairly charging us.

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How right you are. And I don't mean about wasting your time. HPC needs a militant wing if it is not to be just a talking shop. Otherwise we just bitch amongst ourselves, out numbered and outgunned by the vested interests, and largely ignored.

Example - house appears on Rightmove £350,000. After a month price drops to £325,000 so I go and have a look. Estate agent pesters, so I tell him it ain't worth it. EA says make an offer then, so I offer £270,000. EA grinds teeth etc, says offer refused, would take £300,000. Vendor has now decided to drop the advertised price to £310,000. And that's my point - if enough of us make aggressive (but realistic at least to sane people) offers, the vendors' confidence crumbles. The problem for HPC is that most buyers are too soft, too grateful, and prone get carried away. They think 'negotiating' a couple of grand off a £300k house is an achievement. It's not even one percent!

Morgan Kelly Professor of Economics at University College Dublin, who has analysed house price bubbles in Ireland, Spain, Japan, the UK and elsewhere says bubbles lose 70% of gains during the subsequent bust:

“Typically, real house prices give up 70 per cent of what they gained in a boom during the bust that follows. This is a remarkably robust relationship, holding across very different OECD housing markets over more than 30 years.”

If you apply his numbers to the current UK bubble, they still have 25% to fall, even taking inflation into account. So, fellow HPCers, please get out there and start spreading some gloom and despondency. You know it makes sense.

And all major banks and ratings agencies say this figure too, so you are spot on with this 25% figure.

The fact is house prices are guarenteed to fall. The recent downturn will probably lead to recession, and then prices will start to come down again. Inflation is hurting house prices, and the government and BoE/fed are running out of tricks to fight the crash.

The markets have already told the government it had to cut (which will end one of the pillars propping up the housing market), and the BoE cant make rates any lower. Despite all this prices are still falling slowly. This means that as these supports are removed, the housing market will fall. A crash? Maybe not. But 25% falls? I would imagine so, might take 3-4 years though.

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Why pass your thoughts on to one or two EAs, when you can share them with hundreds over at the EA Today site? There are a growing number of HPCers (but still small) who make meaningful contributions over there. Yes, there is the odd nutter who taunts the EAs, but the likes of Sibley's BC and myself post their regularly and with respect (EAs are at the end of the day trying to earn a living). We are providing them with the perspective of the Priced Out generation who don't walk through their doors any more. We've had a lot of influence on debates and have shown that those who are against house price inflation are not just the bitter binge drinking losers who cant get a deposit together that they believed we were.

EAs did very well from the boom years and are reluctant to admit those days are gone. There are a growing number of EAs who 'get it' though and it's great when they debate a HPC amongst themselves. If they don't debate it themselves, then we make sure it still gets posted :D

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How right you are. And I don't mean about wasting your time. HPC needs a militant wing if it is not to be just a talking shop. Otherwise we just bitch amongst ourselves, out numbered and outgunned by the vested interests, and largely ignored.

+1 but I'm afraid you wont find many like that here - no doubt with some pussy excuse to follow up as to why not.

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HA HA HA HA ..... you lot make me chuckle.

For 3 years I have been attempting to buy another property, as a Holiday/Weekend retreat and the time to offer, and get 25% OFF, was Autumn 2009. Not before, or since has that been possible. And I thought it had further to fall, while those brave souls who bought in late 2009 are now selling a vast profits!

In one case a bungalow by the sea sold for £197,500 - I could have bought for that too, but didn't!! It has just sold for £325,000!!! The time for bargains has passed I'm afraid.

I like nothing better than baiting and tormentting EA's - the same as others on here ...... but, I am intelligent to know that I cannot dictate the market ... the market will find its own level.

The truth is that some on here will never buy - prices will always be about to fall further .... whilst others get on with life and jump in. I'm the same as you, dithering around with a dream of a second property in my head ...... but, at least I own a home outright already, so I can benefit from both sides of the same coin.

Far from EA's thinking you are serious by continuing to put in silly offers and writing pointless letters and e-mails, they think you are the equivalent of a tyrekicker (someone who has zero intention of buying, at any price whatsoever) ... and they laugh at you with their EA mates down the pub. EA's may be the most annoying of people but they do know the market has its own forces - and those forces are not affected by bitter buyers who aren't really buyers at all ....... and that's the plain truth of it all.

There's sense in that post. Some here WILL never buy - it is very cocooned.

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  • 343 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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