LC1 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 In the summer of 1939 the estimated population of Great Britain (ie. England, Wales and Scotland) was 46,467,000 (46 Million 467 Thousand). Today it stands around 62 Million. In 1939 we were a nation of make do and mend. Our food chain was local, with virtually zero food miles for the staples of wheat, milk and eggs. Today we have a highly efficient food industry which operates on the basis of comparative advantage - it is more efficient to grow corn fed meat in Argentina and import it than to have beef cows grazing in Sussex. This system has taken decades to refine and can be modelled in an incredibly detailed way. It is baked into our financial system, our retail system and our middle class psyche. If you believe that this highly complex and vulnerable system (which has NO inherent safeguards against a black swan event) can ride out a complete financial shutdown, or a massive oil supply shock, then you are drinking the kool aid. +1 Any disruption to UK food imports and we're all gonna get very hungry very quickly. Not saying it will happen, but this is 100% fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chronyx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 In the summer of 1939 the estimated population of Great Britain (ie. England, Wales and Scotland) was 46,467,000 (46 Million 467 Thousand). Today it stands around 62 Million. In 1939 we were a nation of make do and mend. Our food chain was local, with virtually zero food miles for the staples of wheat, milk and eggs. Today we have a highly efficient food industry which operates on the basis of comparative advantage - it is more efficient to grow corn fed meat in Argentina and import it than to have beef cows grazing in Sussex. This system has taken decades to refine and can be modelled in an incredibly detailed way. It is baked into our financial system, our retail system and our middle class psyche. If you believe that this highly complex and vulnerable system (which has NO inherent safeguards against a black swan event) can ride out a complete financial shutdown, or a massive oil supply shock, then you are drinking the kool aid. ++11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austin Allegro Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 (edited) +1 Any disruption to UK food imports and we're all gonna get very hungry very quickly. Not saying it will happen, but this is 100% fact. Doesn't the UK grow about 60% of the food it consumes? And of the food it consumes, about one third is not needed (because people over-eat) and another third is wasted. Britain didn't come close to starvation in WW2 despite German blockades. It did afterwards, because food was going to liberated Europe and 1947 was the worst winter on record. I remember my father talking about seeing fights on slag heaps in the winter as men fought over lumps of coal. Society didn't collapse though. Yes there would be problems, there would initially be food riots etc as people today have little of the social discipline of the WW2 generation, but I don't buy this '3 meals from anarchy' stuff. A massive campaign of rationing and dig-for-victory would be put into action by an authoritarian national government, probably using existing distribution networks (supermarkets etc) to give out basic food (fish and potatoes etc) under armed guard. People will cope. When politicians say 'on the brink' they mean the holiday home in Tuscany might have to go. Edited September 25, 2011 by Austin Allegro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austin Allegro Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 The planet is moving towards a model best described as efficient outsourcing but when the transport mechanism fails ie oil shocks but could equally be power lines to a home from a power station or in our case the national grid, then the art is how quickly a country or individual can resort back to inefficient insourcing and bring home the job to minimise disruption. The art is getting the balance to offset the risks between both models just right but also how quickly an individual or country can swap between both models. A purely capitalistic market doesnt do risk assessment very well as its blinded by profit. Afterall if the markets were so good they have foreseen the financial risks of 2008. Yes - but doesn't it depend on how the transport mechanism fails? If it's a full scale disaster scenario eg global pandemic, nuclear war, asteroid hit etc, then it's every man for himself and we can't really plan for it in any realistic way, ie it's an 'unknown unknown'. It's more likely that disruption to oil is likely to be gradual (eg through supplies running out or a gradual blockade due to conventional global warfare) giving time for alternative mechanisms to be put into place. Don't forget one of the reasons the UK developed so much was because of its huge advantage in coastal and inland waterways which provided a ready-made transport system, plus large supplies of timber and coal for fuel. There's no reason why rivers, navigations and canals couldn't replace lorries for food transportation (with manpower - walking or cycling - used for local distribution) providing the foodstuffs were basic and the supplies could be defended from rioters (which would be very easy in coastal waters though a little harder on rivers and canals). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmarks Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Peak consternation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.